The 2022 NBA Finals are right around the corner. The Golden State Warriors will be whisking the Dallas Mavericks away soon, if it’s not already done by the time you’re reading this. The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are deadlocked in a 2-2 series that has featured three blowouts.
Game 4 was a predictable one-sided affair as the Miami Heat played with a hobbled Jimmy Butler and P.J. Tucker. The only player who really showed up was Victor Oladipo. But after an 18-1 Celtics run to start the game, this was clearly going to be a rest game for Miami as they await the return of Tyler Herro.
Oddsmakers have noticed the clear momentum shift amongst the injuries. Boston is -175 to win the Eastern Conference but only +230 to win the NBA Finals. It’s that second line that has us interested.
It’s time to bet on the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals if you haven’t yet.
Miami looks beaten and broken and the possibility they win two out of the next three games appears slim. Some would argue that you should grab the value with Miami now, but the Heat don’t have the consistent offensive firepower to win without an effective Butler and Herro. They’ve averaged under 107 points per game without Herro this season compared to almost 111 with him but the impact is greater than the raw scoring numbers.
Look at Game 4’s result as a sign of how low Miami’s offense can slide against an elite Boston defense. Miami had one point through eight minutes, the lowest output by any team in a playoff game in the last 25 years. They finished the game with a putrid 33.3 percent field goal rate and their starters totaled 18 points on six buckets.
This isn’t the ceiling for Miami but shows their lack of consistency. We can’t bet on that in good faith, especially when Boston has reliable performers like Jayson Tatum and an excellent defense. Tatum, with a sore shoulder, put up 31 points and eight boards with a plus-37 differential in Game 4.
Boston can likely win the series with Defensive Player of the Year winner Marcus Smart resting his ankle if the Heat don’t have a massive scoring surge in Game 5. Miami’s decision to invest into Kyle Lowry hasn’t paid off as he’s been banged up too, and the Heat hemorrhaged 24 turnovers last game. The only reason we can still even get the Celtics at value to win the series is because Miami has Butler and home court advantage, but it’s likely the last time we can get Boston at this price.
How Boston Matches Up to Golden State
If what we surmise about the Boston-Miami series being all but over already, then it’s time to see why there’s value in taking Boston over the Golden State Warriors. Obviously we know the Celtics will drop from their current 2-to-1 odds if they win the East, but the amount will likely be significant. Boston could even become the favorite.
There’s not a significant amount of data between these team’s head-to-head matchups. They’ve faced each other seven times over the last 27 months. The Warriors won just once, back in December in a 111-107 battle that predated the Celtics’ sudden transformation into the best team in the East.
The Warriors were without shooter Klay Thompson in four of those games as well. This is a close matchup even if Thompson is never the star we once knew him to be, and he has been significantly less than that player this season. Thompson has shot the second-worst field goal percentage of his career and worst 3-point percentage of his career in 2022.
Thompson’s playoff numbers have recovered a little bit but the defensive intensity will ratchet up against Boston. Dallas has a horrendous defense that is completely incapable of challenging Golden State’s shooters. Boston has no issue throwing a variety of long wings at Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, and Jonathan Kuminga.
Even if we cut to the last three games between Boston and Golden State, the Celtics have outscored the Warriors 112-104.3 on average. This is skewed a bit by the 22-point blowout in mid-March but the Celtics have consistently shot the ball well and defended at a high level. Golden State’s best shooting game included 17 threes on 40 attempts and a maximum of 21 free throw attempts.
Golden State can’t penetrate Boston’s imposing defense reliably. That means this series turns into a jump shot contest. While the Warriors can win that because of their unique gravity and variance between Steph Curry, Thompson, and Poole, they haven’t done it yet against Boston.
There’s also the Curry decline. Curry has seen a dip as he’s aged just like Thompson has. He shot under 45 percent from the field for the first time in his career, all the way down to 43.7 percent. His 3-point shot also became less efficient, hitting at a career-low 38 percent. His previous low was 41.1 percent.
The playoffs haven’t helped Curry’s play since he’s hovering at the same 3-point percentage. His field goal rate is up at least, but it’s telling that Memphis’ long and versatile defense pushed the Warriors to the brink until injuries saved Golden State. Boston can replicate much of what Memphis did due to their roster construction.
We always play the trends and numbers, and this is simply the best opportunity to make the most out of the NBA Finals scenarios in front of us.
