The 2024-25 Europa League is set to be one of the most unpredictable tournaments in recent memory. While top clubs from Europe’s major leagues are part of the competition, it’s not always the biggest names that are favorites to lift the trophy. Factors like intense schedules, long travel distances, and squad rotations due to injuries can make the competition a true rollercoaster for fans and bettors alike.
As the tournament progresses, teams will face a unique set of challenges, from grueling mid-week matches to unexpected injuries and squad depth issues. It’s not just about who has the best odds, but about understanding the subtle elements that make this competition so difficult to predict.
Europa League 2024/25
The Favorites and Their Odds to Win
Many strong teams have entered the 2024-25 Europa League, and as of now, we already have a clearer idea of who the bookmakers think will dominate the tournament. Here’s a breakdown of some top favorites, their odds, and why they may (or may not) go all the way.
1. Tottenham
Tottenham enters the Europa League as one of the clear favorites, but they carry the burden of history on their shoulders. This is a club known for its potential, but also for its knack for faltering when it matters most—a phenomenon that has its own term among fans: “Spursy.” The squad has the talent and attacking firepower to go far, but the question remains whether they can shed that stigma and finally come through in the clutch moments.
- Odds: Tottenham is favored to win at around 9/2.
- Key Player: Son Heung-Min
- Challenges: Knowing how to win in key moments. Tottenham has a reputation for crumbling at the final hurdles, and this tournament will test whether they’ve truly learned from their past mistakes.
Quite an interesting draw for Tottenham in the Europa League! pic.twitter.com/8TXqfUMlwE
— 365Scores (@365Scores) August 30, 2024
2. Manchester United
It’s been a rollercoaster year for United, one marked by inconsistency and frustratingly poor form. Since April 2023, the club has struggled to string together solid performances, and while their FA Cup triumph against Manchester City last May was a bright spot, their 8th-place league finish and current position at 12th in the table speak volumes about the turmoil they’ve been through. This season’s Europa League presents a chance for redemption, but only if they can find stability and consistency.
Quite an easy draw for Man Utd in the Europa League we’d say… pic.twitter.com/FYUvECltHM
— 365Scores (@365Scores) August 30, 2024
- Odds: Manchester United is placed at 13/2 to win the tournament.
- Key Player: Bruno Fernandes
- Challenges: Shaking off the horrible run of form that’s plagued them since April 2023. Despite winning the FA Cup against City, United’s inconsistency has them languishing in the league. Can they rediscover their identity on the European stage?
3. Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao enters the tournament as an intriguing underdog. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance, led by the electric Nico Williams, but questions linger over the overall quality and depth of the squad. Williams has been a revelation, but the Europa League is a marathon, not a sprint. Can the rest of the team rise to match his level? That’s the challenge Bilbao faces as they look to make a deep run in the competition.
- Odds: 10/1
- Key Player: Nico Williams
- Challenges: Quality of the team. Are they strong enough to go all the way? Nico Williams leads the pack, but can the rest of the squad match his output when it matters most?
Why Premier League Teams May Not Dominate
Premier League clubs are often the favorites in European competitions due to the resources, squad depth, and talent available. However, in the 2024-25 Europa League, things might be different. Teams like Manchester United and Tottenham could find themselves prioritizing domestic success over a Europa League trophy.
1. Premier League Focus on UCL Qualification
One major factor is the desire to return to the Champions League. For Manchester United, their primary goal is to finish in the top four in the Premier League. The same goes for Tottenham, who will aim for a top-four Premier League finish while potentially treating the Europa League as a secondary objective. This could mean fewer first-team players in crucial mid-week European ties, leading to unpredictable results.
2. Intensity and Squad Rotations
The Premier League’s grueling schedule, combined with domestic cup competitions, places an enormous burden on players. This often leads to rotations in the Europa League to prevent fatigue and injuries, and while Manchester United and Tottenham have relatively deep squads, even they can suffer from a lack of cohesion with frequent changes in the starting lineup.
3. The Travel Factor
Playing in the Europa League often means long-distance travel across Europe, from far Eastern Europe to Southern Spain. Unlike in the Champions League, where elite clubs enjoy private jets and optimal recovery conditions, Europa League teams often have to endure commercial flights, which adds another layer of fatigue and stress. This issue, combined with an already packed schedule, makes recovery times shorter, further intensifying the unpredictability of match outcomes.
Players Who Will Leave Their Mark
Every Europa League campaign produces standout players who rise to the occasion. Here are a few players who are likely to make a significant impact this season:
- Son Heung-Min (Tottenham) – There’s no stopping Son when he’s in full flight. The South Korean star combines pace, precision, and clinical finishing, making him one of the most dangerous forwards in Europe. Whether cutting inside or drifting wide, he’s a constant headache for defenders, and Tottenham’s hopes rest heavily on his ability to deliver in the clutch.
- Samu Omorodion (Porto) – The young forward is one of Porto’s stars, and he’s got all the tools to be a top striker. Blessed with physicality and a natural instinct for goal, Omorodion thrives in tight spaces, using his quick feet to create chances out of nothing. If he can handle the Europa League spotlight, he might just emerge as one of the competition’s brightest talents.
- Martín Zubimendi (Real Sociedad) – A deep-lying midfielder with a sharp footballing IQ, Zubimendi is the engine that keeps Sociedad ticking. He’s a metronome in the middle, always available for a pass, and capable of breaking lines with his vision. Expect him to control the tempo in key matches, providing both defensive solidity and the creative spark that Sociedad needs.
- Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) – The heartbeat of United’s midfield, Fernandes brings a blend of grit and flair that makes him a match-winner. With an eye for goal and a knack for delivering in big moments, he’s the creative force the team leans on when the chips are down. If United are to make a deep run, Fernandes’ leadership and playmaking will be front and center.
Why the Europa League is So Unpredictable
The Europa League is one of the most unique competitions in world football due to its unpredictability. Here’s why:
1. Injuries and Rotations
The intense schedule means that key players may not always be available, either due to injury or being rested for bigger league games. This increases the chances of shock results, where weaker teams pull off unexpected victories.
2. Long Flights and Poor Recovery
As previously mentioned, long flights on commercial airlines, frequent travel, and short turnaround times between games make it difficult for teams to recover properly. This issue is more pronounced for clubs from lower-tier European leagues or mid-table sides who don’t have access to the lavish resources of Champions League teams. Fatigue plays a huge role in performance, and it’s often a factor that bettors should consider when looking at matchups.
3. Unpredictable Moments
In the Europa League, upsets are common because of the varied quality of squads. While some teams have the depth to rotate and still field a strong side, others might be forced to play their best XI in every game, increasing their risk of injury or loss of form. Additionally, smaller clubs often treat this competition as their best chance to win a European trophy, leading to fierce competition and unexpected victories against larger, more complacent teams.
Betting Tips: What to Watch For
For those making an educated bet on the Europa League winner, it’s crucial to not only consider the odds but also the following factors:
- Team Depth: Can the squad handle multiple competitions, or will they suffer from fixture congestion?
- Travel Distances: Long flights and poor recovery times could affect performance, particularly for teams with smaller budgets.
- Domestic Focus: Are teams prioritizing league success over European glory, like many Premier League teams?
- Injuries and Rotations: Will key players be rested, or is there a risk of injuries from overuse?
Wrapping Up
The 2024-25 Europa League is shaping up to be one of the most intense and unpredictable seasons yet. From favorites like Manchester United and Ajax to dark horses like Galatasaray, the path to lifting the trophy is fraught with challenges. But it’s not just the odds that matter—factors like squad rotations, travel issues, and player fatigue can completely change the landscape of this competition.
So, whether you’re a fan of one of the big clubs or rooting for an underdog, one thing is clear: expect the unexpected in this year’s Europa League.
By Nicky Helfgott / @NickyHelfgott1 on Twitter
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