By Andrew Doherty
The offensive rookie of the year award (OROY) offers some of the best value odds in season-long NFL bets. These bets also tend to be more of a projection – depth charts and roles for rookies typically aren’t clear at this time of year. However, at this stage of training camp, we can start to connect the dots if we know where to look.
*Note: Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, they may be higher or lower on other sportsbooks*
Drake London +1400
Drake London is everything you want in an OROY candidate. He’s got the draft capital as the first receiver off the board at 8th overall. He’s on a team devoid of wide receiver talent, giving him a clear path to a starting role and minimal target competition. He’s got the size to be a big-time red zone threat, even as a rookie.
While having journeyman Marcus Mariota at quarterback isn’t the most ideal situation for London, just about everything else about being in Atlanta is. The Falcons over/under for wins in 2022 is set at 5. Translation: London’s team projects to be trailing in games early and often, thus forcing them into more passing situations. That’s great news for London, who will likely be second on the team in targets behind emerging superstar Kyle Pitts at tight end. With Pitts drawing most of the attention of opposing defenses, it creates plenty of big play opportunities for London in one on one situations.
Treylon Burks +1800
There has been no shortage of negative reports surrounding Treylon Burks since the start of the mini-camp last spring. First came the asthma concerns, now it’s the fact that he’s playing well into the second half of pre-season games. These narratives have caused Burks odds to win OROY to plummet, and this presents us with excellent value.
The Titans traded up in the first round to draft Burks at 18th overall to replace AJ Brown. Brown’s departure opens up 7.9 targets per game from 2021, good for a 27% target share. While nobody expects the rookie to command that kind of volume in week one (or all season, for that matter), Burks will not lack for an opportunity in an offense where his biggest competition for targets will be a 30-year-old Robert Woods coming off an ACL injury. Given the relative lack of competition for Burks, he should see plenty of targets on deep shots off of play action this season.
Burks offers a lot of versatility with his ability to be used on jet sweeps and out of the backfield, and racking up those all-purpose yards will help his OROY case. After the Titans lost star running back Derrick Henry to injury down the stretch in 2021, they may be looking to lighten his load in 2022. With no clear-cut number two running back on the roster, this presents an excellent opportunity for Burks to get some additional touches.
George Pickens +1000
Pickens seems to be getting the most hype of any wide receiver taken in the 2022 draft, and for good reason. Pickens has been nothing short of sensational thus far during the pre-season and has received rave reviews from coaches and teammates alike. After posting a receiving line of 5-49-1 on 7 targets in limited game action, it appears the hype is justified.
With the Steelers being pretty well stocked at wide receiver, Pickens will have plenty of competition for touches. However, the Pittsburgh offense does project to throw a lot more this season than they did in 2021. The quarterback situation is murky as of now in Pittsburgh but I’m willing to bet on Pickens talent to win out, especially at these odds.
Dameon Pierce +1600
Pierce’s odds to win OROY have been slowly creeping up over the past week or so, and now is the time to lock in your bets on him if you haven’t already. Pierce may not be as flashy a pick as the wide receivers, but since 2010 the number of running backs that have won OROY is double the number of receivers that have won.
Despite being drafted by a Houston team with a total season win over/under of 4.5, Pierce projects to see plenty of opportunities in the Texans offense as an every-down back. After averaging 9.8 yards per carry in his preseason debut against the Saints, Pierce didn’t play the following week. Why? Because he’s likely already earned the starting job. The Texans offense may not be the most high-powered but this versatile tackle-breaking specialist is going to see enough volume to land him in the OROY conversation.
Skyy Moore +1000
Moore certainly seems to be flying under the radar for a player tied for the third-highest odds to win the OROY award. There have been a lot of positive reports on
Moore this summer and his skill set is a great fit for the Chiefs offense.
After the departure of Tyreek Hill, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the receiver position in Kansas City. Their off-season additions at the position are one-dimensional players, which creates a massive opportunity for Skyy Moore. Moore may already be the most well-rounded of the bunch, which gives him at least an outside shot at being Patrick Mahomes top option at receiver. With his short-area quickness and ability to get open almost instantly, Moore could lead the Chiefs receiver group in targets. In a high-powered offense with Mahomes at QB, there’s plenty of reason to get excited about Skyy Moore for OROY.
