Week 5 CFB Parlay: Trusting the Pac 12 North
By Will Helms
It took us a while, but we finally hit on our college football parlay of the week (Despite going 12-3 on individual legs through the first three weeks of the season.
Last week we trusted teams that Vegas hasn’t rightly judged yet this season and came out with an easy win. I mean, the closest we came to sweating was when Utah State pulled within eight points of covering with a minute left. Our two underdogs (One at +7.5 and one at +13) each won outright and UNLV dominated the entire game. Overall, it was a great week for us.
This week, we’re going with the “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach and locking in three lines that I really like this week. After last week, we’re up 5.6 units on the year, so I’m ready to keep the momentum going. This week, I’m going with a Pac-12 parlay that can be had at +558 on FanDuel (Which has better lines for these three games)
Oregon State +10.5 (@ Utah) -114
Utah faltered in Week 1, blowing a lead to Florida and losing in heartbreaking fashion. The Utes bounced back with three straight wins over powers like Southern Utah and Arizona State (Sorry Sun Devils). Now, they’re giving 10.5 to Oregon State, one of the better teams in the conference.
The Beavers very nearly knocked off USC last week, but fell just short thanks to some untimely Chance Nolan interceptions that on second look weren’t all that bad. Nolan has six picks this year on just five interceptable passes, falling victim to some unlucky drops and bounces. The Beavers can really run the ball and I’m not convinced Utah’s defense is fixed as much as it simply hasn’t played top talent.
This will likely be a low-scoring, grind-it-out game in the earliest West Coast window. I could certainly see the Beavers knocking off the Utes, but even if they don’t, we have over 10 points to play with. I love the line here and want to start strong in the early window.
Prediction: It comes down to the final drive and Utah wins late but doesn’t come close to a cover, 24-21.
Washington State -3.5 (vs. California) -114
California has been one of several surprisingly decent Pac 12 teams this season, but I still like the Cougars here. But for some unfortunate late-game explosives from Oregon, Washington State would have knocked off the Ducks last week.
I still have faith in Cameron Ward and the new-look Cougar offense. The Cal defense has been opportunistic but hasn’t exactly been a brick wall, allowing 380 yards a game. If the Cougars avoid costly turnovers, they’ll put up some points.
For Cal, the offense starts with the running game which opens up play action. The Cougar defense has been stout against the run, allowing just 3.6 yards a carry and should be able to slow the California attack.
If you’re nervous, buy the extra half-point, but I like the Cougars in this one.
Prediction: It’s close early, but Cameron Ward hits a few long passes in the second half and the Cougars win, 31-23.
Washington -2.5 (@ UCLA) -115
UCLA is truly one of those “they ain’t played nobody” teams. Sitting 4-0, the Bruins have wins over: a bottom 30 FCS school, a bottom 10 G5 school, a middle-tier Sun Belt team (by 1 point) and the worst Power Five team we’ve seen in five years.
We’ll know about them soon enough as the Bruins play three straight against top 15 teams. Playing at UCLA takes the pressure off of an away team as the Bruins have the worst home atmosphere in the Power Five. Washington brings a quarterback playing like a Heisman candidate, a top 10 pass rush, top 10 rush defense and a top 5 offensive line into LA to face a team that has relied heavily on two players.
I love 18th-year senior Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Zach Charbonnet, who I’ve ranked highly in my draft rankings, but Washington will be ready. Give me the Huskies in a game that is never really that close.
Prediction: Washington comes out a contender while UCLA shows itself a pretender. Huskies win 38-28.
Bonus Game: Purdue +12.5 (@ Minnesota) -114
I would not suggest adding this to the whole parlay (It would be a crazy — and dumb — +1136 in you did). However, if you don’t want to stay up until midnight Central sweating Washington-UCLA, or if you think I’m off on one of the others, this is a one-to-one swap. For my reasoning on this one, see this week’s Upset Alert article or my Twitter.
