By Will Helms
Welcome to week 4 of college football and the opportunity to once again look at a parlay that pays well. This week, I’m taking a more traditional route as we’ll string together three against-the-spread plays that I really like into a parlay that is listed at +567 on DraftKings.
This week, we’re backing ATS darlings, a few teams that have really beaten Vegas’ expectations and yet still have favorable lines this week.
James Madison (+7) @ Appalachian State (-115)
Appalachian State has been at the center of some crazy games this season, but this game could be a huge trap for the Mountaineers. Coming off a wild Hail Mary win, there’s bound to be some emotional fatigue here.
James Madison has outperformed Vegas’ expectations this season, though perhaps not its own. The Dukes were one of the FCS’ top teams for multiple years running and have fared quite well in their FBS debut, outperforming their closing line by an average of nearly four touchdowns in its first two games. The Dukes bring a strong offense and defense to Boone where things like to get a bit weird.
Vegas is trying to catch up to the Dukes, but with fans loving App State this season, it’s hard to have a close enough line. In its first-ever Sun Belt game, James Madison should be well-prepared and well-coached (as always).
The Mountaineer defense has some issues, whether people want to admit it or not and James Madison has the firepower to put up some points.
Prediction: Upset special, James Madison moves to 1-0 in the conference, 34-31.
UNLV (-3) @ Utah State (-110)
UNLV is surprisingly good. Utah State is unbelievably bad. We can get the Rebels as just a field goal favorite and I love the spot here.
Sometimes handicapping games is less about finding favorable matchups and sometimes it’s more about picking our spots. This is one of the latter. The Rebels have been bottom-dwellers in the Mountain West Conference for years and has been waiting for the opportunity to beat up on some of these other (new) weaker teams.
UNLV has quietly moved to 3-0 against the spread after destroying a pretty decent North Texas team. Against below-average defenses, the Rebels can put up some serious points and I think the revenge factor of finally being able to win some conference games will really factor in here.
Prediction: UNLV runs up the score, 41-24.
Southern Miss (+13) @ Tulane (-115)
Southern Miss still isn’t great at throwing the ball, but the Golden Eagles can still move the ball on the ground and control the clock. Both teams are 3-0 against the spread here and Tulane is coming off an outright win as a 2-touchdown dog over Kansas State last week.
Tulane played well, but the real story was Kansas State coming out flat. There’s just not a reason that the Green Wave should be laying 13 against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles will wear down the Green Wave, so even if Tulane wins, it won’t be pulling away late.
I really do like to Tulane but this line feels disrespectful to a talented Southern Miss team that is outperforming its closing lines by nearly 10 points. That feels about what I’d expect in this one as Tulane probably wins, but in a much closer game than the line expects.
Prediction: Tulane squeaks one out, 27-25.
