By Will Helms
Last week’s CFB parlay was over before it began. I loved Central Michigan’s offense enough to take the Chippewas and the points, but man, that defense is bad. It didn’t matter that we hit the other two legs.
This week, I’m taking a different approach. I typically don’t love betting over/unders, but I’m 2-0-1 on such bets this season and I really like one total. I’m adding three moneyline favorites to the bet to juice our odds and get back to winning a few parlays. FanDuel is the much better platform for this one, as we have substantially better odds on two of our legs there.
When we combine our total points pick with three moderate home moneyline favorites, we get a bet that adds to +296.
Vanderbilt–Northern Illinois Over 59.5 (-110)
I love this number. Neither defense has had much success this season, while the offenses have thrived. The Huskies are actually favored slightly in this one and should be able to put up some points. After all, Northern Illinois has scored at least 30 points in nine of its last 10 dating back to last season. Of course, the Huskies have given up at least 26 in nine of those games as well.
Vanderbilt’s offense has found some success this season, averaging over 44 points a game. The Commodores gave up 31 to Elon and 45 to Wake Forest. More than that, the Commodores have been aggressive this season and it’s hard to see Clark Lea changing styles and slowing the game down.
Expect a lot of possessions and a lot of points in this one. Getting this total at 59.5 on FanDuel is too good to pass up.
Prediction: Vanderbilt pulls it off at home in a thriller, 38-31
Houston ML vs. Kansas (-360)
Houston is coming off of two thrillers against Texas Tech and UTSA in the last two weeks and faces a hot Kansas team that comes in 2-0. The Jayhawks are coming off the ultra-rare 2-score overtime win (Just wanted to sneak that in.
However, as Dorothy said, we’re not in Kansas anymore.
Houston has some firepower in its offense and will play a very different style of football than what the Jayhawks experienced against West Virginia (Now 0-2, by the way).
Houston’s first two opponents are a lot better than people think. In fact, I picked both of them to upset top 25 teams this week. There’s no disrespect to Kansas, a team that is building something special, but Houston has too many weapons and too much defensive talent. Kansas could keep it close, so take the moneyline.
Prediction: Houston outlasts Kansas, 31-24
Virginia ML vs. Old Dominion (-320)
Old Dominion’s offense just doesn’t have it together. Virginia has not looked sharp under Tony Elliott, but the Cavaliers have superior athletes and an ability to avoid mistakes. Brennan Armstrong can still play so the Cavaliers should be able to find the end zone a few times, even if it’s just on explosive plays.
Old Dominion’s offense has looked lost the last few weeks and just don’t have the firepower to outgun the Cavaliers, who are probably going back to the basics this week. Elliott has made some positional and schematic changes and that should be enough for Virginia.
It’s not going to be pretty, but take the Cavaliers in a low-scoring affair. If you’re nervous about this one, the odds on the other three are +201.
Prediction: Virginia has enough to beat the Monarchs, 28-21
Appalachian State ML vs. Troy (-465)
This one doesn’t add a ton of value, but it’s enough to earn you an extra 33 percent on your bet and it’s one of the safer moneyline plays of the week.
Normally, we’d be concerned with how a Group of Five schools might handle the extra hype of GameDay and how it might play the week after an upset, but not App State. The offense runs two deep with fifth and sixth-year seniors, including quarterback Chase Brice (Who saved a national championship as a backup for Clemson back in the day) and running back Corey Peoples.
Troy isn’t a bad football team, but the run defense is awful. Expect Peoples to tote the rock upwards of 25 times and the Mountaineers to wear down the Trojans.
Prediction: It may be close early, but App pulls away and wins easily, 31-17
