By Will Helms
A week after we very nearly hit on both parlays, I’m back with a couple more picks for the week. Last week, San Diego State let us down as we went 4 of 5, but missed on our only overlapping play.
Lesson learned, so let’s move on.
This week, I have three picks I really like that can be strung together for a parlay that adds up to +595. This week, we’re using DraftKings as two of our picks are smaller favorites there than on a few other platforms. I always want the best line and DK gives that value here.
Tennessee (-6) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
I avoided including this one in both the teaser and parlay (Though I really wanted to) so we avoid the same fate as last week. That being said, I love this play. Pittsburgh’s defense really struggled to defend against West Virginia’s large receivers and Tennessee’s offense is full of athletes on the outside.
Tennessee’s offense was slower and more reserved in a blowout of Ball State and I’m inclined to believe the Volunteers prepared some for this one in the offseason and even perhaps during game week against Ball State.
Pittsburgh’s offense showed me absolutely nothing to make me think it can score 35+ and that’s what it’ll take to beat the Volunteers. Give me Tennessee in a blowout. If you like to keep your plays safer, take the moneyline here, but I really do think the points will be no barrier.
Central Michigan (-5) vs. South Alabama (-110)
Central Michigan turned some heads last week with some garbage-time touchdowns against Oklahoma State last Thursday. What has me most intrigued is how the Chippewas scored.
Last year’s leading rusher, Lew Nichols III was held in check by Oklahoma State’s run defense and yet quarterback Daniel Richardson threw for 428 yards and four touchdowns against a Power Five defense.
Nichols was held in check a few times last season, but always bounced back the next game. Nichols should get his on Saturday and a 150-yard, multi-touchdown game is almost expected at this point. I think Central michigan really gets things moving on offense again against an average South Alabama defense.
On the flip side, South Alabama has had issues at quarterback and running back over the last few years. Without the now Dallas Cowboy Jalen Tolbert, the Jaguars don’t have a star on offense. They lived and died by the big play last week against Nicholls State and have a winnable Power Five matchup against UCLA next weekend. Central Michigan gets them in a good spot this week and I think South Alabama has trouble keeping up with the Chippewas.
It may be close early, but expect Central Michigan to pull away in the third quarter and Nichols to have a big second half. This is one of the more surprising lines of the week in that it hasn’t moved much since opening. I think that’s a mistake and we’ll jump on a 5-point favorite that should be nearer to double digits.
Maryland (-26.5) vs. Charlotte (-110)
I, like many, am often wary of big lines. After all, they can put us at risk for backdoor covers and other things that render much of our research moot. That being said, I love the Terrapins and the points here.
Charlotte is… bad; perhaps the worst FBS team out there right now. The defense cannot stop anybody right now and without fifth-year starter Chris Reynolds, the 49er offense is not nearly as potent as it used to be. Last week, the 49ers were thrown around by FCS William & Mary and this week they get Maryland.
Maryland beat Buffalo by a modest 31-10 margin last week, but it was never that close. The Terrapins dominated from start to finish and played really well in the process.
The difference in this one (and why I’m not as concerned with the bigger spread) is that Maryland’s backups can probably still score, so even an early rest for the starters wouldn’t end our chances. Maryland wants to prove itself this season and Charlotte is a great punching bag for the Terrapins before a tough SMU game in a week.
Take it from a guy that loves Will Healy and the 49ers, bet the Terps.
