By Andrew Doherty
Week 18 is unique in terms of what needs to be considered when it comes to constructing a winning lineup. Some teams have nothing to play for, while others are in a must-win situation. While most DFS players take both of those things into account, I’ll introduce to you a lesser-used strategy: picking players who are close to hitting their performance incentives. Obviously, it’s still a good idea to pick players on teams with something to play for too, so this week’s approach will be a blend of both strategies. And as always, player value vs cost will heavily factor into this week’s plays. Here’s who I like at each position this weekend:
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes is 430 yards away from passing the single-season passing yards record. It’s a lofty total but definitely in play for Mahomes as he faces the Raiders 30th ranked secondary with the 1 seed and subsequent first round bye on the line. While he’s obviously a good play every week, he’s consistently shown the ability to elevate his level of play as the stakes get higher. And make no mistake about it, he wants both the record and the 1 seed badly.
Running Back
Derrick Henry
The Titans are hoping to ride King Henry’s coattails into the playoffs this weekend, with recently acquired journeyman QB Joshua Dobbs under center. The outlook for the entire offense outside of Henry is bleak, which has historically led to a massive workload for the star running back. Henry has seen increased usage as a pass catcher this year, running a route on 38.6% of dropbacks with a 10.8% target share. The Jaguars defense gives up the 2nd most receptions to opposing running backs and with the Titans passing game likely to struggle, there’s a very good chance Henry sees an increased amount of targets on screens and check downs.
Wide Receiver
Christian Kirk
Kirk is 2 catches away from a $500k bonus and 91 yards away from another $500k bonus. In a game where he can make an additional million in incentives and has a playoff berth on the line we can expect Trevor Lawrence to feed targets to his top pass catcher. Facing the Titans bottom 10 secondary, Kirk could potentially be looking at a massive spike week but is reasonably priced.
Tight End
Gerald Everett
Everett is just 5 catches shy of making an additional $250k this year. He’s had 5 or more catches in half of his healthy games this season. With the Chargers playoff bound and facing a Denver defense that’s not only allowed the 3rd most catches to tight ends but is also eliminated from playoff contention, Everett is in a prime spot to be a steal at his modest price.
