By Will Helms
The first full week of college football is upon us and there are plenty of games on which to bet. Deciding which lines are nice enough to parlay and which lines are so scary that you wouldn’t touch them with a 10-foot pole is sometimes tricky, especially with so little in-season information available. That being said, I’ve created two different parlays, one a teaser and another with home moneyline favorites, that bettors may enjoy sweating this weekend.
Parlay No. 1: Group of 5 Teaser
App State +3.5, Nevada +3.5, San Diego State -3 (+340)
I’ll explain each of these in more depth below, but I like all three of these at the current spreads. Simply because were parlaying, I moved to to or across significant lines to mitigate a bit of risk.
App State +3.5 over North Carolina (-150)
Okay, it seems that I just hate the ACC this week (Don’t worry, I have one more ACC favorite to fade) but this is by far my favorite play of the weekend.
North Carolina is inexperienced and struggled with a Florida A&M offense last week that very nearly failed to make the trip. I actually think last weekend’s game hurts App State bettors because this line shrank from 3.5 to 1.5 after North Carolina’s disappointing opener.
I had this circled months ago when the lines first came out. The Mountaineers are more experienced at just about every position in this one and despite Drake Maye’s strong opener, I feel that the Tar Heels are at a disadvantage at quarterback.
More importantly, the Mountaineers get Cam Peoples back. North Carolina’s run defense is uh… not great. Expect the Mountaineers to pound the rock and wear North Carolina down.
Nevada +3.5 over Texas State (-155)
Go ahead and take the moneyline here if you want to beef up your odds. We saw some late movement in the opposite direction because the Wolfpack lost a substantial amount of its 2021 production, but I’m not on board with that. In fact, the Wolfpack are next-to-last in the country in returning production.
Texas State fares much better in that particular category but went just 4-8 against one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Bobcats just simply aren’t great, so getting a near pick ’em isn’t fair. We pushed the line to +3 to guard against a fluke field goal. Texas State won’t score much, so this simply comes down to whether Nevada’s inexperienced offense can put up points.
San Diego State -3 over Arizona (-165)
Vanderbilt and Duke. That’s the complete list of Power Five teams ranked lower than Arizona in Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranking. Arizona is just bad.
On the flip side, I really like SDSU this season. The Aztecs may be dealing with a bit of an off-field PR nightmare, but the defense is stout and Arizona may not reach double digits. If we’re doing math, that means the Aztec offense needs a couple of touchdowns to make us happy. I really think they get there and more. I’d even consider a reverse teaser, if you want to juice the odds. This one could get ugly.
Parlay No. 2: Home moneyline favorites
SDSU ML, Arkansas ML, Coastal Carolina ML (+236)
Don’t get greedy with your parlays. There will be five or six upsets this weekend, so don’t try to string together 12 favorites and hope it hits. Instead, pick two or three favorites and string them together. If you want to get risky, maybe sprinkle in SMU -10.5, but that’s as crazy as I’d get.
SDSU ML (-250)
See above.
Arkansas ML (-280)
Cincinnati was one of my favorite teams to bet last year with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. After a Colleg Football Playoff run, the Bearcats lost him and eight other starters to the NFL Draft. Luke Fickell is still a fantastic head coach, but Arkansas is too much.
KJ Jefferson ended last season on a hot streak and replaces Treylon Burks with two talented transfers. Arkansas should be able to run the ball and control the clock, hitting a few big plays to boot. I’d consider a Cincinnati win to be one of the biggest upsets of the weekend, so trust the Razorbacks here.
Coastal Carolina ML (-130)
The Chanticleers are the slimmest favorite on this list, but I like them at home this week. Army games are always tough to bet due to the triple option. However, Coastal Carolina has historically fared well against the attack, most recently holding Georgia Southern to 8 points last season.
Army defensive end Andre Carter is the real deal, but while the Chanticleers lost a lot on offense last season, Grayson McCall returns and with a solid cast of playmakers. Expect a huge game from Georgia State transfer receiver Sam Pinckney as the Chants protect at home.
