By: Will Helms
Despite largely outplaying both of its previous group stage opponents, the US Men’s National Team sits third in Group B with 2 points and faces a very simple task: Beat Iran to move to the knockout round, or fail and be eliminated.
By and large, this has been a disappointing showing for a team with high hopes as the US have just one goal in two games, ahead of only Tunisia, Mexico and Uruguay. Still, a win against Iran puts the US squarely in the mix in a knockout game against (likely) the Netherlands or Ecuador.
Scouting Iran: Scrappy Underdogs
Iran comes in second in Group B after beating Wales with the latest regular time winner in World Cup history (Only to score again three minutes later). The Iranian side is compact defensively and difficult to score on when the team decides to go defensive. Up top, Mehdi Taremi (FC Porto) has scored or assisted on three of Iran’s four goals and will likely form a striking partnership with Sardar Azmoun of Leverkusen.
Iran loves to play on the counter, content to let opposing teams pass it around with little threat and then attacking once in possession. Despite being out-passed 390 to 197 Friday, Iran totaled 21 shots and seven corners, while conceding just 10 shots and 2 corners.
England was able to eventually stretch the Iranian defense and pull them out with through balls. However, the 6-2 scoreline was more due to England’s impressive finishing than Iran’s defense. The English totaled just 13 shots, but put seven on target and scored six times on just 2.11 expected goals (The English held 78 percent of the possession, but only finished with a 2.11-to-1.75 expected goals advantage).
Scouting the U.S.: More of the Same?
While we knew the U.S. might struggle in attack, it’s been a disappointing showing going forward for the Americans. Despite passing well and holding possession, the Americans have totaled just 16 shots this tournament, (Just seven a game in their last five) and have put just two on goal. The Americans have totaled just 1.2 expected goals in two games with over half of that coming on just two shots.
Defensively, the Americans have been mostly solid, conceding less than .8 expected goals from open play in each of the first two matches and they’ve dominated in the midfield. However, the lack of finesse in the final third has put the U.S. in a tricky spot.
I don’t think anyone can argue that Tyler Adams hasn’t been one of the best players in the tournament. He’s been dynamic in the midfield with 14 ball recoveries and six tackles and he’s been surprisingly impressive as a passer, progressing play and hitting several accurate long balls.
I think Gregg Berhalter keeps the midfield largely the same and perhaps looks at Jesus Ferreira at striker. Of course, fans want to know how much of Gio Reyna and Brenden Aaronson they’ll see against Iran.
What to Expect
I think this could be a frustrating game for the Americans, especially if they don’t score early. Iran likely needs just a draw to advance, so I expect the Iranians to play for a 0-0 scoreline if no one scores in the first half (Much like the Americans seemed to do against the English).
That means that the U.S. will need to be precise in attack to break through. Uh oh. Under Berhalter, the Americans have succeeded mostly in moments of individual brilliance. Against Iran, I don’t see that happening, outside of a Christian Pulisic stunner from the wing. Instead, I expect a barrage of crosses into the box. Accordingly, the Americans will need to pick out individual attackers in front of goal.
Iranian goalkeeper Hossein Hosseini is coming off of an excellent performance against Wales in his last outing, a 3-save clean sheet.
Defensively, Iran is stout. Through two games, the Iranians are second in interceptions and center back Morteza Pouraliganji is third with 24 clearances. I’d expect that number to go up against the Americans as the U.S. tries to force its way into the box.
Prediction
While I’ve been quite pessimistic about the U.S. throughout the tournament, I do think the Americans can find a breakthrough against Iran. The main question I have is whether anyone has the killer instinct to put the game away.
I think Pulisic will find the back of the net in the first half, forcing Iran to chase the game. I’m not convinced a typically ultra-conservative Berhalter will have the Americans continue in attack after that. Against Wales, the Americans stopped pressing after the initial Timothy Weah goal.
I don’t think Berhalter will have learned in this short time and the U.S. could be in for a tense second 45. Matt Turner has been immaculate in his shot-stopping though and I think he’ll make one or two big saves down the stretch.
Prediction: It’s ugly and it’s unnecessarily tense, but the U.S. holds on to punch its ticket to the knockout round, 1-0.
