By: Will Helms
It’s time. For the first time in eight years, the US Men’s National Team plays on the world’s biggest stage. Per DraftKings odds, the U.S. has the slightest of edges over Wales as the second-most likely team to advance out of Group B, well behind England, the heaviest group favorite of the tournament.
Because of this, Monday’s opening game against the Welsh is monumentally important. A win from either team would flip the odds and put the loser in immediate “do-or-die” mode.
Scouting Wales
The Players
The Welsh present a unique challenge for the U.S., specifically in the way they’ll line up. While manager Rob Page has experimented with a 4-4-2 in some recent friendlies, I’d expect the Welsh to line up in their familiar 4-5-1.
Wales is best on its flanks and boasts two strong wing backs to go with star wingers Gareth Bale and Daniel James. Neco Williams and Burnley’s Connor Roberts form a likely wingback pairing that will have plenty of freedom to move up into a 3-4-3, making overlapping runs and getting involved on the offensive side of things.
The Welsh have a bevy of major tournament experience and getting them in the first game is a bit of a blow to the U.S., who are by far the more fit team. The Welsh are versatile, able to change formations and types of players at will. While Brennan Johnson is likely to start at striker, Keiffer Moore can provide a towering target man.
Wales relies heavily on Bale, who played just twice for LAFC this season. He’s had a number of soft tissue injuries, but he’s impossible to ignore on the international stage.
The midfielders are experienced and technically sound. Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen are no strangers to the big stage and have had more than a few shining moments for their country. They lack elite size, but are accurate passers and adequate defenders, able to to spring the attackers on the counter.
The center backs are the most underappreciated part of the Wales team and make the whole thing go. Ben Davies and Chris Mepham have been stellar for Tottenham and Bournemouth, respectively, this season and Joe Rodon has found consistent playing time for Rennes.
One other option for the Welsh is to do what they’ve done against a few teams with strong midfields. Occasionally, Page will drop his striker for Ethan Ampadu, a defensive-minded midfielder who can also drop into center back, and make Bale and James into twin strikers in a 5-3-2.
The Welsh are above all experienced and positionally versatile.
What to Expect
Stylistically, Wales is a nightmare matchup for the U.S. The Welsh love to sit in their shell and are content to rely on the counterattack and long ball. In World Cup qualification, the team averaged just 70 percent passing accuracy and 33 percent possession.
The U.S. will have to be patient and break down the Welsh defense. We’ve seen the team struggle in similar situations in the past, most recently against a similarly-built Costa Rica team.
A healthy Gareth Bale will cause the U.S. issues. However, there’s no indication Bale is healthy. He certainly isn’t in the best match shape. That being said, James netted a goal in his last game and has been great off the bench for Fulham this season.
Fitness could be an issue for the Welsh, as many of their stars are a bit older or have been coming off the bench for their club. Wales is likely to start longtime keeper Wayne Hennessey in goal, although he’s played just one match since September.
Wales will be content to sit back and let the U.S. try to break down the defense, then spring free on the counter. The Welsh backline will be a tough nut to crack. Even if the U.S. has 70 percent possession, there’s no guarantee that will lead to big chances.
Scouting the US
Projected Lineup
I expect some squad rotation in the first three games as Gregg Berhalter will change tactics for three very different teams. That being said, I think we see a group close to Berhalter’s preferred Starting XI.
We’ll likely see Matt Turner in goal. The Arsenal man has kept four straight clean sheet and is Berhalter’s first-choice goalkeeper.
The backline, from left to right should be Antonee Robinson, Aaron Long, Walker Zimmerman (C) and Sergino Dest, though Berhalter could swap Cameron Carter-Vickers or Tim Ream in for Long.
Berhalter has options in the midfield and here’s where I think he has the opportunity to make an impact on the game from the start. Because Wales likes to sit in a 4-5-1 shell, I’m not very keen on Brenden Aaronson playing a high press like he could against England. Instead, Berhalter could opt for Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Gio Reyna in a holding 4-3-3.
In attack, Christian Pulisic is a lock to start at left winger. On the opposite side, Timothy Weah is an option to match the speed of Neco Williams on the US right side. It’s striker by committee for the U.S., but I expect Jesus Ferreira to get the first shot before perhaps being replaced by Haji Wright. In a perfect world, Weah would come off the bench, but I think his speed is necessary against Wales.
That leaves Brenden Aaronson and Yunus Musah on the bench to provide energy and pressure in the second half.
What to Expect
Tactically, these are the types of games that half frustrated US fans. We’ve seen teams with far less defensive talent than Wales hold the U.S. at bay. Just two months ago, we witnessed the U.S. dominate possession in back-to-back games only to put just two total shots on goal.
If the U.S. wants to get off to a roaring start at the World Cup, I don’t think its typical tactics will work. Historically, we’ve seen the team try to make the majority of its critical passes in the final third from the wings. That could leave the defense vulnerable to counter attacks.
The U.S. has the midfield talent to build through the middle and test a backline that is used to being protected. Musah and Reyna present the U.S. team’s best on-ball threats from the midfield and should be able to dribble at Ramsey and Allen.
While Weah would typically come off the bench, he provides a great deal of pace on the right side and will help the U.S. maintain a higher threat level with possession. The U.S. has to avoid simply having wasteful possession if it is going to score early.
The Welsh center backs don’t bring much size and McKennie is a huge threat in the set piece game, which may provide the United States its best chances at scoring.
Prediction
It would not surprise me at all for the Welsh to have a few threatening counterattacks. Turner will likely be forced into a tough save or two and I honestly expect Wales to score first.
However, the Welsh have not maintained a clean sheet in five tries, and I think the U.S. will score on a set piece late.
Prediction: A draw is the likeliest outcome, per betting odds at +165 and I tend to agree. The U.S. scores in the second half to salvage a 1-1 draw.
