By: Will Helms
It’s go time for the US Men’s National Team at the 2022 World Cup. After what I considered a disappointing draw against Wales, the Americans must face England in a game that could make or break their chances of reaching the knockout stage.
Going into Friday’s match, the Americans will know exactly where they stand in the pecking order of Group B. But against one of the pre-tournament favorites, it will be an uphill battle.
Scouting England
The Players
The Three Lions are one of the deepest and most talented teams in the entire tournament. From front to back, they run 2-3 deep at every position with world class players.
I expect the English to come out in their typical 4-2-3-1, but that’s a fluid formation, especially in the midfield.
It all runs through the defensive midfield partnership of Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham. The season Rice and youthful Bellingham make what I would consider the best pairing in international soccer, unmatched in their ability to progress play. Bellingham has worked on his offensive game this season with Dortmund and scored in his World Cup debut against Iran.
Behind them is a solid back four of Premier League players (Bellingham is the only non-Premier Leaguer on the team). While John Stones and Harry McGuire started against Iran, I’m expecting Tottenham’s Eric Dier to start as Gareth Southgate rotates his squad. The US wingers will also have their hands full with Luke Shaw and Kieran Trippier at the fullback positions. We could also see Trent Alexander-Arnold if Southgate opts for a more attacking wingback.
The attacking midfield is a revolving door of quality and we’ll see some combination of Bukayo Saka, Mason Mount, Jack Grealish, Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden there. The biggest question is the health of world class striker Harry Kane.
Kane injured his ankle against Iran and England has been mum of his status, though as of this writing, it looks like he may be available. Kane is one of the best in the world at creating his own shot and has become an elite passer in the last 18-24 months.
Everton keeper Jordan Pickford is the first-choice goalie for the English, but comes in after allowing two late goals to Iran.
What to Expect from the English
The English under Southgate prefer to dominate position and pick their spots. Possibly the best at creating improbable chances, England routinely puts a high percentage of shots on target and convert at an impressive rate. Against Iran, the English scored six times on just 2.11 expected goals, with just 13 total shots taken in the game.
Analytically-speaking, this would typically be an unsustainable approach, but the Three Lions thrive in this approach. It’s a viable approach with the attacking combination of Kane, Sterling, Mount and Saka.
The English are also dangerous on set pieces, boasting multiple players over 6-foot-2. McGuire gets forward on corners and the Three Lions have multiple players that can take corners and free kicks (Though as a Spurs fan, I can very much attest to Kane’s lack of free kick prowess).
England applies more pressure on teams offensively than it does defensively as they’ll typically allow teams to possess the ball after being dispossessed.
Against the US, I expect the English to try to capitalize on their physicality and technical superiority.
Scouting the US
Projected Lineup
I expect several changes for the US against the Three Lions. First, Gio Reyna will start. If he doesn’t, the entire fan base might revolt. While the US has him listed as a midfielder, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start opposite of Christian Pulisic on the wing. I’m expecting to see a change at striker as the US tries to play more counter against the English. Accordingly, it’s likely Jesus Ferreira starts up top.
We should see the biggest changes in the midfield. It was clear that Weston McKinnie was not 100 percent against Wales and I think he may rest against the English. I’m expecting to see Brendan Aaronson start in the midfield in front of Tyler Adams. The third midfielder position could go to any number of players. Gregg Berhalter could run it back with Yunus Musah or opt to switch things up with a guy like Luca de la Torre.
Defensively, I’d ultimately expect to see the same defensive setup against the English, meaning Sergino Dest, Walker Zimmerman, Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson should be the lineup. I think Ream played well enough to earn another start and he’s played well against each of the English attackers in the Premier League this season.
While Zimmerman made a crucial mistake that led to Wales’ game-tying penalty, he’s been the most consistent central defender for the Americans. That being said, I could see Cameron Carter-Vickers working his way in at central defender or Joe Scally at right back, if Dest isn’t 100 percent. Barring a surprise injury or the apocalypse, Matt Turner will be in goal.
What to Expect from the US
The logical play would be for the US to put a ton of pressure on the English defense with darting runs. The English wingbacks (especially if Alexander-Arnold cracks the lineup) are below average defenders and susceptible to vacating their defensive positions in favor of attacking runs. The US team is one of the few teams in the world with the team speed and passing ability to take advantage of this deficiency.
However, I do not expect the US to actually play this way. Even against weaker competition, Berhalter has hesitated to play the kind of wide open game that many would like to see. He simply doesn’t want to leave his backline susceptible to this. Rather, Berhalter would prefer to possess the ball in the midfield and build slowly from the inside out.
In order to succeed here, the Americans will have to pressure Rice and Bellingham and while difficult, I do think Aaronson has the pressing ability to force the Three Lions into a few mistakes. From there, the US will have to capitalize in the final third, unlike their repeated struggles against Wales.
Prediction
England is the more talented team, especially in attack. While I think the US has the attacking prowess to pressure the English back line, the English should score multiple goals against the American defense.
The Americans should win more than a few corners and it will come down to whether or not they can capitalize on those opportunities. If the Americans can hold their own in the midfield, they have a chance, but it’s an uphill battle. Goal differential is key here as it could make the difference between a second and a third place finish in the group.
I think the Americans will play mostly solid defense, but some Harry Kane wizardry and an English corner put the US in a hole. Once down, I think the US finally open it up and start to play with more pace, but the English are too much.
Prediction: England controls the game and pulls away late in a frustrating 3-1 loss for the US.
