By Will Helms
It wasn’t easy, but the U.S. men’s national team advanced to the knockout stage of the World Cup following a nervy 1-0 win over Iran on Tuesday.
Now, the Americans will face a stiff challenge in an explosive Dutch team on Saturday. The Netherlands present a unique challenge for the U.S. after facing two largely defensive teams in the group stage.
Scouting The Netherlands: Full Speed Ahead
While the English have similar or even superior attacking talent to the Dutch, it is the Dutch that provide the greater attacking threat.
Led by PSV attacker Cody Gakpo, the Dutch don’t exactly dominate possession against strong teams. However, they’ve been clinical on the attack.
Gakpo, who will almost certainly be in one of the bigger leagues by next summer, has been immaculate for club and country this season. He’s opened the scoring in all three group games with a combination of speed, finishing and dangerous set-ups from teammates.
The Dutch play at a quicker speed than most of the countries in the world. Where the Americans’ build-up is slow and methodical, the Dutch build from the back rapidly with quicker passes. The Dutch defenders and midfielders frequently make overlapping runs and they aren’t afraid to try riskier maneuvers, knowing they’re likely to win back possession in time.
Interestingly enough, the underlying numbers don’t show the same domination that we see on paper in the group stage. Against Ecuador, the Dutch managed just two shots, both from distance. And while Gakpo’s found the back of the net in the sixth minute, the Dutch never threatened goal again. Meanwhile, Ecuador peppered the goal with 15 shots and 1.61 expected goals.
Thanks to clinical finishing, the Netherlands have outscored its expected goals by nearly three 150 percent.
In the midfield, Frankie de Jong and Steven Berghuis make it all go. De Jong excels at winning 50/50 balls and has grown with Barcelona as a progressive passer. As always, the Dutch are dangerous on the wings and can deploy their front players in a variety of positions.
Most impressive so far has been Andries Noppert in goal, who has 10 saves and just one goal allowed. Against Ecuador, he was the best player on the pitch and kept the Dutch in a match they should have lost.
Scouting the USMNT: Can anyone finish?
I don’t think it’d be shocking to anyone to say that the striker position has been a big, fat question mark for the greater part of a decade. American No. 9s simply don’t score much for the team, putting a ton of pressure on the wingers and midfielders to crack the scoresheet.
Josh Sargent played what I thought was the most complete game from an American striker in the entire World Cup cycle, and as luck would have it, went down with a knee injury late in the second half.
I personally would love to see Jesus Ferreira get an opportunity Saturday as his speed and ability to find space could prove useful. To advance, the US must find something up front.
While the USMNT continues to struggle up front, it’s time to have a real conversation about the strength of the U.S. midfield. You’d be hard-pressed to find a country whose midfield played as well as the combination of Tyler Adams, Yunus Musah and Weston McKennie.
McKennie hasn’t played anywhere near his ceiling and it hasn’t mattered because Adams and Musah have been so dominant. Adams, in particular is probably a Group Stage Best XI inclusion for his strength in the middle. Their performance has made the lack of attacking prowess that much more frustrating for the Americans.
What I’m Expecting
I actually think the U.S. will hold more possession in this one than against England. The Dutch will be content to sit back and play quickly on the counter, so the U.S. needs to keep its shape in the build-up. Stopping the counter will be key. If the Americans can pressure the Dutch back line in attack, it will actually protect them in defense, slowing the Dutch attack.
This is where I think a guy like Brenden Aaronson could really help the Americans apply constant pressure to the Netherlands.
Based on some late news, I think the U.S. is the more fit team. The U.S. needs to set its own pace and not allow the Dutch to settle into the game.
The Americans have to avoid an early letdown because the longer the game goes, the more I think it favors the U.S. If it gets to extra time, I think the Americans can steal a late winner.
The Netherlands will test the U.S. backline more than any team to date, so that group needs to communicate well and keep its shape.
Storylines to Follow: Sickness and Health
Christian Pulisic scored what ultimately became the winner against Iran and went down in some discomfort. While there’s been no official indication of what the injury may be, it looked like Pulisic took a hard hit to the midsection. I expect him to be okay, but it’s a blow to the Americans’ chances if he’s less than 100 percent.
On the other side, the Dutch are dealing with a team-wide flu battle that forced them out of practice on Friday. It’s the World Cup, I wouldn’t expect players to flat-out miss the game, but if a few players are dealing with respiratory issues, that’s a weakness the U.S. can and should exploit. If this game goes into extra time, the extra period heavily favors the Americans.
Memphis Depay is not in the best of form both with his play and his health. Used mainly as a substitute, he’s been underwhelming through three matches, but the quality is there. Should the match be close late, we cannot rule him out as a potential game-changing substitute.
Prediction
Look, I’ve been highly-critical of the American team this cycle, but I was able to correctly predict the scores of two of the first three games, including a nearly flawless Iran prediction.
I really like this matchup for the Americans, the question will always remain however, of if Gregg Berhalter can make the substitutes to keep the Americans in a tight game. His match tactics have been largely successful, even if the in-match adjustments have left much to be desired.
I’m trying not to talk myself into an American victory, but the path is there. Either the Netherlands come out hot and build a lead, or it stays close and the U.S. wins late, barring a Berhalter collapse. The U.S. has had decent success when I’ve bet against them, so I’ll use that as the tiebreaker here.
Prediction: Gakpo scores early and the Americans struggles as it chase the game late. The Dutch squeak by, 2-1.
