By Will Helms
Last week was chaotic, with a number of high-profile upsets. Unfortunately, I wasn’t bold enough to pick a couple of the ones I liked, even hinting that App State had a chance but failing to call it outright. Anyway, after calling two of three in Week 1 we put up a goose egg last week.
I’ve flushed it and we’re ready to go in Week 3, and I’m putting three more CFB teams on upset alert this week.
Pittsburgh (@ Western Michigan)
Pittsburgh comes in as a 10-point favorite after a disappointing overtime loss to Tennessee last week.
However, while the scoreline shows that the Panthers had a chance to win, the advanced numbers show they were just lucky to keep it close.
The offense is already struggling and now, they may be without their top two quarterbacks. That would leave Pat Narduzzi to choose between Derek Kyler, a graduate transfer from Dartmouth, and true freshman Nate Yarnell. Both of them missed the entirety of spring practice.
All of this for an offense that hasn’t looked great, even with Kedon Slovis behind center. The defensive backs have struggled against top receivers each of the last two weeks and Western Michigan brings in two good ones in Corey Crooms and Jehlani Galloway. Neither of them has the elite size that has bothered Pittsburgh’s corners, but until the Panther defense proves it can stop top wideouts, give me the Broncos.
Prediction: Western Michigan and its home-field advantage get it done, 31-24.
Texas (vs. UTSA)
Meep meep. Put me on the roadrunner train. Texas is coming off a heartbreaker in which it so nearly downed Alabama a week ago, but Hudson Card is no Quinn Ewers.
The roadrunners are somehow sneaking up on people again with one of the best offenses in the country. But for a very unfortunate triple-overtime loss to Houston, the Roadrunners would be in the top 25 themselves, this time behind a strong… passing game?
The formerly run-heavy Roadrunners replaced back Sincere McCormick by simply throwing the ball more and the results have been fantastic. Texas did well to limit the rushing ability of Bryce Young a week ago, but Frank Harris comes in averaging nearly 6 yards a rush to go with 350 passing yards a game.
Texas has to try to avoid a letdown here, as everything (Including the college football playoff) is still on the table. The Longhorns will have to move the ball better than they did last week and convert in the red zone.
It might take 35 points to beat the Roadrunners. I don’t think it happens.
Prediction: Hudson Card throws a late pick and the Roadrunners pull off the upset, 35-31.
NC State (vs. Texas Tech)
I considered putting USC on upset alert again against a sneaky-good Fresno State team, but last time I did that (last week) the Trojans won and covered (The only favorite that I’ve put on upset watch this season that covered).
Instead, I’m going back to the well and picking the Wolfpack to lose under the lights. I stand by my NC State- ACC Championship bet (+1200 when I got it) as my best value of the season, but could not predict them to the playoffs. Logically, that means the Wolfpack have to lose one of their out-of-conference games and after surviving ECU and getting UConn next week, that leaves Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have a good offense (Shocker) led by a strong dual-threat quarterback in Donovan Smith. The NC State defense has struggled in the past with running quarterbacks and may be caught looking ahead to a matchup in Death Valley in two weeks.
Devin Leary will get back to being last year’s Devin Leary, but as of right now, he’s struggling. His decision-making has to improve and if it doesn’t, the Wolfpack are in trouble.
Prediction: Texas Tech pulls off a wild victory to move into the top 25, 38-37
