Upset Watch: Top 25 teams on high alert in Week 2

By Will Helms

Breathe. After a wild and wacky week 1, we turn the page to week 2 where I’d expect more of the one thing the first full week of the college football season failed to give us: upsets.

Sure, a top 10 team went down, but how much does that really count when it’s on the road to an SEC team that was less than a field goal underdog.

This week is intriguing in that four top 25 teams are underdogs, per the current Vegas spreads. Picking those teams would be low-hanging fruit—though I’ll talk about a few of those games—so instead I’ll focus on three favorites that could be headed for trouble.

As a reminder, last week these picks went well. Of the three official upset picks, two underdogs won outright and the third (ECU) would have if not for a missed kick. As for the bonus FCS over FCS games, Texas A&M took a while to get started but eventually cruised and Iowa… well Iowa survived South Dakota State.

Upset #1: South Carolina (+7.5) over #19 Arkansas

Hey, it’s me here, a South Carolina grad picking his own team to pull off an upset.

Here’s a reasonable path to victory for the Gamecocks: Arkansas kept the ball on the ground with decent success against an undersized Cincinnati front, picking and choosing its opportunities down the field. South Carolina comes in with improved linebacker play and a strong secondary. If the Gamecocks can force the Razorbacks into some tougher third down situations, KJ Jefferson will be forced to push the ball down the field more than he’d like.

South Carolina’s offense sputtered a bit against Georgia State, but the talent is there. If Jalen Cantalon cannot go for the Razorbacks, Jaheim Bell and some of the other South Carolina playmakers could find space. It’ll be a low-scoring affair, but if Shane Beamer and company can get a few things to break their way, South Carolina could be 2-0 going into an encounter with Georgia.

Prediction: South Carolina 27, Arkansas 24

Upset #2: Arizona State (+11) over #11 Oklahoma State

I considered sprinkling App State over Texas A&M in here, but wasn’t going to pick against the Aggies twice in a row. That brings us to Arizona State and Oklahoma State, one of the strangest games of the week.

After a strong defensive performance last season, Oklahoma State nearly blew a 30-point lead to Central Michigan with some very suspect defensive play Thursday. This week, the Cowboys host an intriguing Arizona State team coming off a 40-3 win against Northern Arizona.

In that game, the offense was vanilla, with Emory Jones playing safe, mistake free ball and the running game going for 260 yards. This week I think we’ll see Jones test a shaky back seven for the Pokes and push the ball down the field. The Sun Devil defense gave up just two yards a play Saturday and could slow Spencer Sanders.

Oklahoma State is going to want to win in a shootout, but if Arizona State slows things down, the Pokes could be in trouble in a low-scoring affair. I still like the Pokes, but this one could get dicey.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 30, Arizona State 27

Upset #3: Stanford (+9) over No. 10 USC

The arrival of Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and Lincoln Riley has made USC somewhat of a media darling. The lovefest continued after a 66-14 drubbing of Rice last week, but is USC actually that good?

The Trojans are coming off a 4-8 season and while this is certainly a different team than we saw in 2021, I’m not sure it’s drastically better.

The score doesn’t tell the whole story. The Trojans benefitted from some pretty terrible Rice quarterback play to the tune of three pick sixes, one of which came as the owls were in the red zone. USC’s defense allowed a sack adjusted rushing average of 5.6 yards per carry and moved the ball effectively until interceptions on three straight drives to start the second half brought an early end to what had been a competitive game.

Stanford brings the reliable Tanner McKee at quarterback and a rushing attack that USC struggled to defend against in last year’s game. Stanford isn’t great, but I’m really not convinced in Alex Grinch’s defense and think the Cardinal could expose an overrated Trojan team this week.

Prediction: Stanford 38, USC 31