By Will Helms
I hope you followed along last week for what ended up being one of my best weeks ever. If you missed it, let me recap. I put five top teams on upset watch: Clemson, Oklahoma, USC, Oregon and Texas. Within that, I suggested taking Clemson by 1-6 (a bet that would have paid four times its stake) in an extremely tight contest. I took Texas to lose straight up as well.
I had Oklahoma and USC switched as I thought it would be the former and not the latter than won on a last-second drive (Though both underdogs easily covered). Oregon played spoiler, scoring 21 points in the final four minutes to complete an insane comeback against Washington State (The Cougs still backdoored a cover though!)
So, after a wild CFB Week 4, are we ready for a wilder Week 5?
Well, no. I just don’t like a lot of ranked upset picks this week (And the ones I do like feature the ranked teams as small favorites or even moneyline underdogs). So, like I did in Week 1, I’m not limiting this to ranked teams. Here are four touchdown-or-better favorites that I’m putting on upset watch this week.
Georgia State +7.5 (@ Army)
Georgia State might be the best 0-4 G5 team in the history of college football. The Panthers played two Power Five teams (North and South Carolina) close before a depressing loss to lowly Charlotte and a close loss to Coastal Carolina.
This might be the week for the Panthers. As with any Army game, predicting how a team will handle the triple option and the potent passing offense. Wait, what?
Army passed for 304 yards a few weeks ago in a close loss to UTSA (Meep meep) but got back to the basics with a cool 0-0-0 passing statline against FCS Villanova. The point stands, though, that Army’s passing offense is at least some sort of factor.
All of that being said, Georgia State runs option concepts of its own, has a rival whose offense is essentially the same as Army’s but out of shotgun and just played a Coastal team that runs a lot of triple option concepts itself. If anyone can slow the option attack, it’s Georgia State.
I think the Panthers should be in this game until the end, the question is whether or not they can actually pull it off.
Prediction: Georgia State is not longer winless, winning a tight contest, 31-28.
Illinois +7 (@ Wisconsin)
Have we considered that Wisconsin just might not be good? The Badgers are 2-2, easily dispatching FCS Illinois State and should-be-FCS New Mexico State and falling way flat against Washington State and Ohio State.
The offense just can’t move the ball against any Power Five defense with a pulse, so giving seven points to a team with a defense like Illinois feels like a great recipe for an upset.
The Illini are 3-1 and have given up over 10 points just once this season, to Indiana in a close 23-20 loss. In that game, the Illini out-possessed and out-gained Indiana substantially and still lost. Bill Connelly’s SP+ had Illinois’ post-game win probability in that one at nearly 75 percent.
Illinois is simply the better team. These plays don’t always work out, but we think it pays here.
Prediction: Illinois shuts down Wisconsin on the road, 24-14.
No. 7 Kentucky +7 (@ No. 14 Ole Miss)
It’s not often a top 10 team is getting a touchdown against a lower-ranked team, but that’s the spot here for Kentucky. The Wildcats haven’t been great this season, but have played up to the competition. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has breezed through its schedule outside of an 8-point win last week over Tulsa that should have been more like 2-to-3 touchdowns.
I actually like Kentucky in this spot. The defense has been pretty good so far and the game plan against Anthony Richardson and Florida really impressed me. Ole Miss just doesn’t have the firepower it has had in the past, which means that the defense will have to go out and win the game.
Against Will Levis, I’m not sure that happens. Because of the home crowd, I’ll give this one to the Rebels, but just barely. This should be one of the games of the week.
Prediction: Ole Miss squeaks one out in a thriller, 31-30.
Purdue +12.5 (@ Minnesota)
Here’s the big one. Purdue is getting 12 and a half against an overachieving Minnesota squad that—despite some blowout wins to start the season—still has a lot of lingering problems.
Minnesota’s early-season success is unsustainable, in my opinion. The Golden Gophers have torched some objectively terrible defenses en route to a 4-0 start, which has inflated the line.
The Boilermakers are a dropped interception and 12 (give or take) unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in two minutes of game time from a perfect record themselves. The run defense is sneaky good and I don’t think Mo Ibrahim comes anywhere close 142 yard-per-game average. The Boilermakers held Sean Tucker to just 42 yards on 18 carries and can slow Ibrahim.
Tanner Morgan has been immaculate on play-action, but without a strong running game, he’ll have more trouble. Add in that the Golden Gophers lost Chris Autman-Bell for the season and that the offense has benefitted from an absurd 78 percent third down conversion rate and it’s not hard to see how the law of averages can win out here.
Minnesota is good, just not that good. And when faced with some adversity, do we expect the incredible PJ Fleck culture to win out?
Prediction: In the upset of the week, Purdue ruins Minnesota’s perfect season, 31-27.
