I truly hope you’ve been following along for some big-time success in recent weeks. Our picks (all touchdown or more dogs) in the past two weeks are 9-0 against the spread and 5-4 straight up. Last week, we were two Will Levis fumbles away from a clean sweep as Purdue, Illinois, and Georgia State all won outright and Kentucky covered easily but failed over and over again to score one final time.
Obviously, this success is unsustainable, but I do still have a few underdogs that I like this week.
Like last week, we’ll only pick underdogs of a touchdown or more.
Favorites on Upset Alert in Week 6
UNLV +7 (@ San Jose St.)
UNLV has quietly been one of the best teams in a confusingly bad Mountain West conference this year after being pretty terrible in recent seasons. The Rebels are the first good offense to face San Jose State and I think their balanced attack could give the Spartans issues.
UNLV has been incredibly opportunistic this season, forcing nearly three turnovers a game. While the Spartans have held onto the ball well, the Rebel defense is the best they’ve faced. I think the Rebels get a break or two and pull out a big upset on Friday night.
Prediction: UNLV’s turnaround season continues with a low-scoring victory, 27-24.
Arkansas +8 (@ Mississippi State)
I’ve waited patiently on this one. Every year has one or two but this is a good team, so it’s a bit later than normal. But now it’s time.
This week marks the annual “Mike Leach team collapses in a big spot”.
I love Leach, one of the best coaches in football. However, there’s always a midseason letdown. Fresh off a huge win over Texas A&M, the Bulldogs face a reeling Arkansas team. That being said, there’s a bit of the transitive property fallacy here.
Mississippi State beat A&M and A&M beat Arkansas, so Mississippi State should beat Arkansas, right? Well, in each of the aforementioned games, the scoreline didn’t tell the whole story. In fact, based on expected scores, the Bulldogs beat the Aggies by 10 more points than expected and the Arkansas scoreline was opposite of what was expected.
KJ Jefferson should right the ship as Arkansas gets a stop or two in this one and pulls off the upset.
Prediction: The Arkansas offense controls the clock while the defense gets a stop or two. Razorbacks win, 31-27.
Middle Tennessee State +9.5 (@ UAB)
MTSU had a predictable letdown last week against UTSA after upsetting Miami on the road the week before. This is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team, but in even numbered weeks, the Blue Raiders have been money, covering by an average of 34 points (Seriously).
They face a UAB team sorely missing Bill Clark. The Blazers just haven’t been their consistent selves since the legendary coach announced his retirement a few months back. The Blazers are still a fine team, but I like MTSU’s ability to move the ball through the air. Defensively, the Blue Raiders get after the quarterback and that can really help them keep the Blazers behind the chains.
Prediction: It ain’t pretty, but MTSU gets it done, 24-20.
Arizona +13 (vs. Oregon)
My biggest upset pick of the week features a pair of Pac 12 teams in this week’s edition of #Pac12AfterDark.
We haven’t seen much craziness out west in the late slate this season but I think that may change this week. While Bo Nix has been great for the Ducks, he’s still struggled just a bit on the road. Despite throwing just three picks this season, Nix has six turnover-worthy plays, half of which have come in two games away from Eugene.
The Arizona defense actually hasn’t been that bad this year, especially against the pass. It’s the type of game where a turnover or two could swing things in Arizona’s favor. I’m not ready to predict the Wildcats as outright winners, but the game should be much closer than the line suggests.
Prediction: Oregon edges Arizona in a thriller that ends well after midnight eastern, 42-39.
Bonus
I really wanted to pull the trigger on Kansas +7 in a matchup of two undefeated (Both straight up and against the spread) Big 12 teams, but I’d rather watch it without the pressure of an upset pick riding on it. I think the Jayhawks will have a chance to win it at the end, but I’m not confident enough to call my shot.
