After a relatively tame week of college football (at least in terms of marquee upsets), I think this upcoming slate could bring chaos. In fact, narrowing it down to just four games was quite difficult.
I think it’s far more likely than not that we see a top 10 team fall this week, so I’m starting with three of the nation’s top seven teams that should be on high alert in Week 4, with two other top 25 upsets thrown in for fun.
This week, I’ve ordered these from the lowest to highest likelihood
No. 15 Oregon (@ Washington State)
The Ducks are the most likely upset of the weekend as Washington State and quarterback transfer Cameron Ward are dangerous. I think the Cougars have flown under the radar this season, despite upsetting Wisconsin just two weeks ago.
Washington State is physical and can match Oregon’s speed on the outside (On both sides of the ball). The Cougars like to slow things down and are near the top of the leaderboard in yards per play and opponents’ points per play (Things the overall box score doesn’t really tell us). They haven’t run a lot of plays but have been fairly successful on offense despite that.
They don’t give up big plays and force teams to drive the length of the field. Bo Nix will face a defense that forces a lot of turnovers and he’ll be forced to show patience throughout the game. I don’t like this matchup for the Ducks and Washington State has a chance at a statement win.
Prediction: Washington State in a slow, low-scoring game, 24-21.
No. 7 USC (@ Oregon State)
Oregon State is a talented football team that excels on both sides of the passing game. USC’s path to success this season has been to hit big plays in the passing game and slow opposing quarterbacks.
The Trojans face their first truly good offense of the season and have to go on the road to do so. Expectations are sky-high in Corvallis and the atmosphere should be great for a nighttime kickoff.
Chance Nolan has carved up opposing secondaries so far this season and will really test a transfer-laden USC defense. Offensively, Jordan Addison isn’t likely to be running freely through coverage busts this weekend against one of the best secondaries in the country.
This comes down to whether or not Caleb Williams can be patient enough to take what the defense is giving him.
Prediction: Beavers pull of the upset in a thriller, 43-42.
No. 22 Texas (@ Texas Tech)
I had the Longhorns on upset alert last week and credit them for being ready and responding after getting down early to UTSA. This week, they’ll face a fun Texas Tech team on the road. The Red Raiders are one of the faster offenses in the country and use tempo to put opponents on their heels.
Texas could be getting Quinn Ewers back but will go on the road for the first time this season. Last year the Longhorns were 1-5 away from home last season with losses to some very mediocre teams, so I’m interested to see if they’ll be any better this season.
I really like what I’ve seen out of Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith and think he’s maturing as a signal-caller. It’ll be a sellout and a high-profile afternoon game. Texas will need to manage the emotions and Texas Tech could pull one out.
Prediction: Texas squeaks by, 31-30.
No. 6 Oklahoma (vs. Kansas State)
I can’t get a read on Oklahoma this season, a team that has repeatedly started slowly against bad teams before turning up the heat in the second and third quarters and pulling away. However, Kansas State is not a bad team.
Oklahoma has won mostly in the trenches this year, something we haven’t said in a while. The Wildcats can match them along both the offensive and defensive line, however, and should make that battle a bit more interesting.
The X-Factor here is Deuce Vaughn, who has quietly been one of the top running backs in the country for the better portion of three years. Vaughn has the speed to take any handoff to the house and neutralizes a pass rush with his ability to run zone and draws.
Ultimately, I think the Sooners outlast the Wildcats, but it would not surprise me in the least to see Oklahoma upset this weekend.
Prediction: It comes down to the final possession, but Oklahoma survives, 34-31.
No. 5 Clemson (@ Wake Forest)
It’s so, so difficult to pick against Clemson. We’ve said the Tigers have looked shaky for the better part of 15 games now, but hold a 12-3 record with losses only to Georgia, NC State and Kenny Pickett’s Pittsburgh team.
The Tigers always seem to play well against Wake Forest, which is what keeps me from picking the Demon Deacons outright. However, this is a very different Wake Forest team. It’s still the Dave Clawson’s-weird-mesh-point offense that we’ve grown to… recognize, but the defense is the best it’s ever been in Clawson’s tenure.
The pass rush, in particular, is outstanding and the coverage on the back end has been solid as well. These are the types of games Clemson has pulled out in recent years, but the Demon Deacons should keep it close. Clemson will need every bit of its best offensive effort.
Prediction: It’s close, but Clemson’s defense gets just enough stops to pull it out, 27-24.
