By Will Helms
If you’re like me, you enjoyed a nice prequel to the college football regular season Saturday, with some fun, though low-stakes matchups.
This Saturday, however, is when the season really begins. And boy, does it begin with a bang. Right out of the gate, us lucky college football fans get two top 12 matchups in Georgia–Oregon in the afternoon window and Ohio State–Notre Dame at night.
That being said, while the rankings in these two matchups may be close in number, the spreads… are not. Georgia squares off with Oregon in this “neutral site” (Atlanta) clash as 17-point favorites while Notre Dame goes on the road to face Ohio State as 17.5-point underdogs.
So, does either dog have a chance?
Oregon’s Path to Victory
There’s always value to be had in Week 1 of the college football season and often lines prove to be inaccurate simply due to a lack of concrete information. Oregon hopes that’s the case Saturday.
Georgia lost eight defenders off of last year’s National Championship team to the NFL Draft, including five that went in the first round. Oregon will look to take advantage with an incredibly experienced offensive line. Each starter has logged at least 1000 snaps and is in his fifth or sixth year of eligibility.
The Bulldogs have several new faces, especially in the secondary and at the linebacker position, so Oregon will look to take advantage there. The Ducks will hope to find some room in the running game and control the clock, forcing Georgia to play from behind.
That would be significant, simply because I (like so many) am not sold on Stetson Bennett. Georgia rarely played from behind last season and in those rare cases still stayed balanced on offense simply due to the talent in the running game. I’m not quite as convinced that this running back room can replicate last year’s production and the offensive line lost a lot last season.
The Bulldogs are still talented along the offensive line, but if Oregon can slow the run game enough to put Bennett under pressure, he may make some mistakes. With some turnover luck, there’s a realistic chance that Oregon can keep in close in some sort of 24-21 slugfest.
Notre Dame’s Chances to Pull off the Upset
Last season, Ohio State played a ranked non-conference game early in the year, falling behind early before ultimately falling short against Oregon. This year, the Buckeyes will hope things turn out a bit differently.
Ohio State is the deeper team, with advantages on the outside, at running back, and led by future first-round quarterback CJ Stroud. But Notre Dame has some talent of its own.
The Fighting Irish will rely on tight end Michael Mayer and edge rusher Isaiah Foskey will need to have huge games, as will new starting quarterback Tyler Buchner.
Buchner’s legs will have to be a difference for the Irish and he’ll have to put the Ohio State defense on its heels. It will be difficult for the Irish to sustain drives, making it all the more important to hit big plays.
Ohio State is beatable, and if the Irish can keep enough firepower, this could end up a high-scoring upset.
The Picks
Georgia 38, Oregon 17 (UGA -17, Over 52.5)
Ohio State and Georgia are 3-score favorites for a reason. Parlaying the two favorites wouldn’t even get you to -400 odds. Even though upsets do happen, I don’t foresee either favorite going down. That being said, here’s how I see each game playing out.
Georgia reloads on the defense and will likely have multiple first-round picks on that side of the ball yet again this season. Oregon transfer quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in the past when his team can’t do much on the ground and Jalen Carter could make life difficult for Troy Dye and the other Oregon backs. In an ideal world, Oregon wants to wear down its opponents with a steady dose of the run game, but Georgia’s defense is simply two deep. Plenty of their third-stringers have experience and would even start on other teams.
Georgia also wants to turn this game into a run-heavy slogger and should wear down a thinner Oregon defense. While Noah Sewell is a thumper and will make his share of stops, Georgia just has too much depth. Expect tight ends Brock Bowers, Darnell Washington and Arik Gilbert to make a few big plays between them, while Kentrell Milton and Kenny McIntosh wear down an Oregon defense that will have to be nearly perfect to win.
Ohio State 37, Notre Dame 21 (ND +17.5 Under 59.5)
While I have Ohio State winning this one, I think the nightcap will be significantly closer than the afternoon game. Ohio State fans expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to run free like he did against Utah in last year’s Rose Bowl. However, without the cover of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, he should see fewer 1-on-1 opportunities.
I fully expect Marvin Harrison Jr. and Julian Fleming to have big years, but I’m not sure that success will be immediate. After losing Evan Pryor for the season, the Buckeyes are thin at running back and while Paris Johnson is a potential first round tackle, he’ll be making his first career start there against the Irish.
Not only is Foskey talented, but the entire Irish defensive line can get to the quarterback. The back end of the Irish defense leaves a bit to be desired (A big part of the large spread in my opinion) but if Stroud is pressured, I really like Notre Dame’s chances to force some turnovers.
Buchner was way better than his numbers suggested last season and now as the full-time starter, I expect him to shine. I’m not expecting a Notre Dame upset, but the Irish should keep things close. They’ll stop the Buckeyes a few times in the red zone and keep the score close until the end.
