By Andrew Doherty
It’s all about the overs tonight. I’m going with a smaller card for tonight’s slate as we let the dust settle from a whirlwind of moves at the trade deadline. As usual, I’ve looked over each and every prop available for tonight and found the very best value bets on the market. As always I advise line shopping for the best number available whenever possible. Here’s what I’m rolling with tonight:
Terry Rozier over 22.5 points
Rozier gets an A+ matchup tonight against a struggling Spurs team that has lost 13 straight games and is right in the middle of a 9 game road trip. Defensively, the Spurs rank bottom 4 in the league in each of the following categories: opponents points per game, opponents field goal percentage, and opponents free throws per game. Rozier has scored at least 23 points in 10 of his last 14 games, averaging 24.1 points per game in that span. The Spurs have also allowed the most points per game to shooting guards this season, making this a smash spot for Rozier.
James Harden over 35.5 points + rebounds + assists
Harden’s matchup against Cleveland isn’t exactly one that catches the eye but I still like this number for him. Harden is averaging 38.5 points + rebounds+ assists this season and has cleared this number for 4 games straight. Harden has also cleared this line in over 60% of his games this season, making this a favorable bet at -110 odds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points
The last time SGA played the Rockets, he erupted for 42 points. Houston not only allows the 3rd most points per game when on the road, they also allow more points to opposing point guards than any other team in the league. Although SGA averages 30.9 points per game, which is just below tonight’s line, I’m completely confident in him exceeding that tonight based off having such an advantageous matchup. Hammer this over and don’t think twice about it.
Kawhi Leonard over 22.5 points
This number is simply too low for Kawhi and it’s likely based off the additions that the Clippers made at the deadline. Despite adding some talent, none of these players are going to be taking shots away from Kawhi. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games and despite a minutes restriction early in the season is averaging 22 points per game. Since the start of 2023, he’s averaging 28 points per game. Lock this one in before the line moves.
