By Ian Wharton
Boston Red Sox vs.Cleveland Guardians
Two teams that got off to slow starts before catching fire will meet Saturday when the Cleveland Guardians (36-30) host the Boston Red Sox (40-31). Boston took the opener of this three-game series 6-3 on Friday.
Red Sox win 5th straight
The Red Sox are on a five-game winning streak after Friday’s win. The Red Sox got off to a sluggish 14-22 start this season but have gone 26-9 since, putting them third in the AL East, 12 games behind the Yankees, but only a half-game behind Toronto. The Red Sox collected 13 hits on Friday but went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position.
Josh Winckowski, a 23-year-old right-handed native of Toledo, Ohio will make the fourth start of this career when he takes on Cleveland. The rookie is 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA. In the minors, Winckowski went 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in nine starts.
The Red Sox offense is seventh averaging 4.8 runs per game. Trevor Story (.228 AVG, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 9 SB) and Rafael Devers (.331 AVG, 17 HR, 44 RBI) have been the top run producers.
Bieber looks to lead Guardians bounce back
The Guardians have worked their way up to first in the AL Central, tied with the Twins. After starting 18-23, Cleveland is 18-7 in their last 25 games. The Guardians have won eight of their last 11 games but now find themselves on a two-game losing streak. In the ninth inning, Cleveland scored one run and loaded the bases with one out, before Ahmed Rosario struck out, and Jose Ramirez grounded out to end the game.
Ramirez is one of the best players in the game, leading Cleveland with a. 301 batting average, 16 home runs, 62 RBI, and 12 stolen bases. The Cleveland offense overall is 11th in MLB averaging 4.6 runs per game.
Shae Bieber will make his 14th start on Saturday. The 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner is 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA this season. Bieber has not faced Boston since 2019, but in four career starts against them is 2-2 with a 6.95 ERA.
Although Josh Winckowski pitched well in his last two games, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in June, those starts came against the Tigers and Orioles, the worst offensive teams in baseball. The Guardians have won the last five games started by Shane Bieber, which includes a 5-3 win over the Dodgers last Sunday. Both teams have played great in the month of June, and with the Red Sox’s five-game losing streak, and the Indians’ two-game losing streak, I like Cleveland to bounce at home here.
Prediction: Cleveland Guardians ML
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
World Series contenders will continue a four-game series on Saturday afternoon in the Bronx with the Houston Astros taking on the New York Yankees. After New York won Thursday’s series opener 7-6 in dramatic fashion to cash in as a -135 favorite, the teams will meet again late on Friday after the time of publishing. Houston maintains a healthy lead atop the AL West at 43-26, while the Yankees easily have the best record in baseball at 52-18.
The Yankees took four of the six meetings last season between the two teams, who have met twice in the ALCS since 2017.
Astros bullpen suffers rare meltdown
A huge factor in Houston’s success this season has been boasting the league’s best bullpen, but it couldn’t hold on late Thursday night in an intense loss to the Yankees. Houston got off to a great start with Alex Bregman launching a three-run homer in the top of the first inning before Yordan Alvarez also smoked a three-run shot in the third, only for the Yankees to win it in the bottom of the ninth with a four spot.
Starter Framber Valdez went six innings, allowing three runs on two hits and three walks while striking out seven. Ryan Pressly was charged with a loss and blown save as he allowed four runs while getting just one out. Jose Altuve had a three-hit game including two doubles, while Bregman was on base three times.
“Things started unraveling, and we couldn’t put it back. It was a tough one to lose, especially here because we played such a good game tonight. We got some guys who swung a lot better, guys are getting better. It’s a tough one to swallow, but that’s baseball,” manager Dusty Baker told MLB.com.
Houston remains up on the money line despite being a big favorite in most matchups while going 34-35 on the run line. Overs are just 23-44-2 for the Astros, although none of their last four games have gone under the betting total.
The Astros have only been a mediocre scoring team at 4.35 runs per game despite posting a .739 OPS that ranks in the top five. Houston pitching has been terrific with a 3.10 collective ERA that is third-best in the league including a mark of 2.68 from a bullpen that is still comfortably atop the leaderboard.
Alvarez is one of the top hitters in the game this season with a 1.071 OPS, 22 homers and 54 RBI. Altuve has also been great in 54 games when healthy, posting an .878 OPS with 13 homers and 37 runs scored.
Cristian Javier will be on the mound for his 14th appearance and 10th start, having gone 4-3 with a 3.07 ERA while piling up 68 strikeouts in 55.2 innings. The 25-year-old picked up a win over the Chicago White Sox last Sunday, allowing one run on two hits and four walks over five innings, striking out five.
Shortstop Jeremy Pena, who is in contention for AL Rookie of the Year, is sidelined by thumb discomfort. Starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. is still rehabbing from a flexor tendon injury, while Jake Odorizzi is dealing with leg discomfort. Reliever Josh James hit the IL last week with a strained lat, joining Parker Mushinski (elbow discomfort) and Blake Taylor (elbow discomfort).
Yankees unreal run continues in comeback win
New York remains on pace to win a staggering 120 games and earned maybe its more memorable victory yet this season with a four-run ninth to topple the Astros on Thursday. Giancarlo Stanton’s three-run shot in the first inning was New York’s only scoring until the bottom of the ninth, when Aaron Hicks tied the score on a three-run homer before Aaron Judge won it on an RBI single.
Starter Jameson Tallion struggled, allowing six runs on 10 hits while striking out three in 5.2 innings. The bullpen picked him up, with Miguel Castro tossing a scoreless ninth to earn the win. Judge had another multi-hit night including the game-winner while scoring a run.
“It was a good level of focus, I felt, on our bench. Let’s go have good at-bats,” manager Aaron Boone said to MLB.com. “That was the mindset. There was a calm and a resolve and energy, certainly. But I would say the opposite of emotional. It’s just, ‘Let’s go grind this thing out and have good at-bats.’”
The Yankees have brought in huge profits on the money line this season with their impressive outright record while going 36-34 on the run line. Overs are 33-36-1 for the Yankees, with each of their last three games going over the betting total.
This is the second-highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.14 runs per game on an MLB-best .768 OPS. New York pitching is also second-best with a 2.94 collective ERA, including a mark of 2.88 from a strong bullpen.
Judge is in MVP contention, batting .304/.379/.658 with an MLB-high 27 homers while driving in 53. Anthony Rizzo is also providing plenty of pop, posting an .838 OPS with 19 homers and 49 RBI.
Gerrit Cole is set to make his 15th start of the year, hoping to continue yet another terrific campaign as he’s 6-1 with a 3.14 ERA and 103:21 K:BB ratio across 80.1 innings. The 31-year-old went 7.1 innings in a no decision against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, allowing one run on one hit and three walks while piling up 12 strikeouts.
Catcher Ben Rortvedt hasn’t played this season after undergoing knee surgery. Starting pitcher Domingo German is still working back from a shoulder impingement. Most of New York’s injuries are in the bullpen, where Aroldis Chapman (Achillies tendinitis), Chad Green (Tommy John surgery), Jonathan Loaisiga (shoulder inflammation), Stephen Ridings (shoulder impingement) and Zack Britton (Tommy John surgery) remain out.
As great as the Astros have been all season, the Yankees just seem on a different level right now and are impossible to pick against at home, where they have won 15 straight into Friday night. The Yankees are well-rounded in every facet, and Javier will have a little trouble matching zeros with Cole with the deep New York lineup on the other side.
While overshadowed by some of his teammates in the rotation this season, Cole is having another ace-level season with outstanding numbers across the board including a 25.4 K-BB%. The Yankees provide plenty of run support, leading baseball with a 120 wRC+ as offseason additions like Jose Trevino plus a bounce-back season by Gleyber Torres has helped add depth to the star-studded core.
Javier can get a little wild with a walk rate that is just under 10% and is not typically very efficient with his pitching count, with the Yankees poised to jump on any mistake he makes. This is a tough team to bet against right now even facing a strong Astros side, and Cole will lead another win here.
Prediction: Yankees ML
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Toronto Blue Jays (39-30, 31-38 RL, 36-32-1 O/U) collide with the Milwaukee Brewers (40-32, 32-41 RL, 33 -33-6 O/U) in game two of a three-game series on Saturday evening. The Blue Jays give the nod to a struggling Yusei Kikuchi. The Brewers reply with ace, Corbin Burnes. The Jays registered a 9-4 win in Friday’s opener.
Kikuchi Struggles Again, Jays Begin Road Trip
The Blue Jays will give Yusei Kikuchi the nod for the 14th time of the season. Kikuchi had trouble once again last time out, giving up three runs including two homers in four innings against the Yankees, and was able to escape with the no-decision in game the Jays rallied to win. The veteran left-hander has amassed an atrocious 9.45 ERA this month and his season ERA has plummeted to 4.94 to go with a 1.52 WHIP and a 2-3 record in 54.2 innings. Kikuchi has pitched in the AL his entire career and has yet to pitch against the Brewers as a result.
The Blue Jays resume a six-game road trek. They avoided a sweep with a win against the White Sox on Wednesday. The squad is having no issues scoring runs however the pitching has been an issue and is a big reason they are 2-5 in their last seven bouts entering Friday.
Teoscar Hernandez is the hottest player in the Blue Jays lineup right now, accumulating four homers and 11 RBIs in his last nine games. The 29-year-old slugger has missed some time due to injury when healthy is one of the best hitters in the game. Hernandez has clubbed seven homers to go with 28 RBIs in 45 games played.
Toronto is scoring an average of 4.70 runs per game, ranking them 10th overall. The pitching staff has posted a 4.02 team ERA, placing them 19th in the Majors.
Burnes Rebounds with Gem vs. Cardinals
The Brewers will have Corbin Burnes make his 15th start of the season on Saturday. Burnes was brilliant in his previous start, breezing through seven shutout innings against a good Cardinals lineup to guide his team to a 2-0 victory. The talented right-handed ace has conceded two or fewer runs in three consecutive outings and is sporting a dazzling 2.31 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP complemented by a 5-4 record in 85.2 innings of action. This marks his first meeting against the Blue Jays.
The Brew Crew were able to win two of four meetings against the rival Cardinals this week. They have been much better after a rough start to the month although the offense remains inconsistent. They are 2-8 in their last ten home games.
Willy Adames has been one of the Brewers’ top hitters this month, driving in 12 runs along what a .796 OPS in June. The 26-year-old shortstop is up to 15 homers along with 36 RBIs and a .777 OPS. Adames has launched four homers in his last seven games.
Milwaukee is averaging 4.35 runs on the season, ranking them 16th overall. The pitching staff features a 3.70 team ERA, tabbing them in eighth in the big leagues.
The Blue Jays are at a disadvantage when Kikuchi has been on the mound this month. The veteran has allowed three or more runs in four consecutive outings and did not reach the fifth inning in any of these performances. He has surrendered a whopping seven homers in that span.
Furthermore, Brewers’ starter Corbin Burnes is fresh off seven shutout innings against the Cardinals. The ace has limited his opponent to two or fewer runs in five out of his last six starts. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has been an issue as well and they have dropped five out of their last eight games.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers ML
