By Will Helms
As we enter the final week of the regular season, it’s a good time to examine the current futures odds. I’ve come up with a few bets I like and a few I’m staying away from ahead of Saturday’s huge college basketball matchups.
Three to bet
Mississippi State to miss the tournament (+105)
DraftKings has Mississippi State at near even odds to make the NCAA tournament despite a 6-9 conference record. NET really likes the Bulldogs, but I expect their rating to drop a bit soon.
None of their Quadrant 2 wins look likely to move into the first quadrant, while an overtime win over TCU isn’t looking as impressive. The Bulldogs are currently in Joe Lunardi’s last four in, but in a season where I expect a bunch of mid-major conference tournament upsets, that standing doesn’t give me confidence.
If the Bulldogs make the tournament a few blue bloods would likely be kicked out and I don’t see that happening.
The Bulldogs face three fairly hot teams in Texas A&M, South Carolina and Vanderbilt plus an early date in the SEC tournament. I wouldn’t be surprised if South Carolina beat them Tuesday to seal their fate.
Kansas to make the Final Four (+220)
I generally try to stay away from National Championship bets, as they can be difficult to pick. However, I do like a good Final Four pick. Kansas is battle-tested and in a wide open year, and the Jayhawks seem to be finding their groove at the right time.
I trust experience in the tournament and the Jayhawks have a lot of it, plus a hall of fame coach to boot. If I’m going to trust anyone here, it’d be the Jayhawks.
Add to this that DraftKings has the Jayhawks at +220 while other books have them as high as +160 and you’ve got some value.
North Carolina to make the tournament (-120)
I love this bet. A blue blood with elite talent whose only issue has been close losses to top teams is a recipe for success. Not only should they make the tournament, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tar Heels make a run as well.
North Carolina is 17-11 with nine Quad 1 losses by an average of 6.4 points. The Tar Heels will get two more cracks at an elusive Quad 1 win before the conference tournament and have three wins that have a reasonable chance of moving up a quadrant in the next week or so.
Plus, March Madness is better with North Carolina. If it comes down to it, the Tar Heels will get the benefit of the doubt. Take the Heels.
Three to Fade
Alabama
The Tide have a few things going against them right now that hurt their chances at a Final Four or National Championship.
First, they lack the experience in these situations. The guard play has been sub-par recently but it’s been mostly shielded by Brandon Miller’s elite play. He’s a freshman and it’s difficult for freshman big men to carry their team.
Oh, and Miller may be in potential legal trouble. Look, I’m a columnist and random betting guy, not a politician or lawyer so my opinion doesn’t matter. I think Miller was at the wrong place at the wrong time. However, it would not surprise me if Alabama eventually succumbed to outside pressure and temporarily suspended Miller, pending further investigation.
I love the Tide, but it’s too risky.
Tennessee
If you’re thinking of buying the dip with Tennessee, just don’t. We had our Rick Barnes January boom, now we’re in the February and March swoon. I don’t trust Tennessee in the tournament, so even as the Vols’ odds drop, I’m not very tempted to take them.
The Volunteers lack an elite offensive threat that can take over a game. In the tournament, they’ll need that type of boost that I just don’t see them finding. Another year, another Rick Barnes fade.
Purdue
I love Purdue. However, there are a few concerning trends that I’m following.
Over the past 20 years, there has been a blueprint to winning the National Championship. Teams with strong guard play and elite shooting typically make noise in March and April.
Purdue is 104th in turnover percentage and 69th in effective field goal percentage. Everything runs through 7’4 Zach Edey, but if he has a poor (Translation: Non-elite) game, I don’t trust the guards to step up enough to win a tough Sweet Sixteen or Elite 8 matchup. We’ve seen talented Purdue teams fall short in the past and this may be another year.
That being said, if the Boilermakers lose another few regular season games, I may try to cash in on the longer odds. I like them, but they’re too boom-or-bust to take at +1000.
