Three favorites, three long shots: NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Picks

By Will Helms

The NFL season is just around the corner which means it’s the perfect time to jump into some season bets. One of the most interesting races this season is the defensive rookie of the year award, where there isn’t a clear favorite and more than a handful of players have a chance. I’ve shopped the odds and found some value in a few plays — three favorites and three long shots, to win the defensive rookie of the year award.

I’ve listed the players from shortest to longest odds and included the book with the most bettor-friendly odds for each player at the time of this writing.

The Favorites

The books typically have a good feel for the way these awards will go. So while we want to be wary of odds that are too short, we always want to consider putting a unit or two on a few of the favorites. Here are the three guys I like near the top of the list (Players listed in order of odds).

Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Lions, +600 (FanDuel): 1 Unit

There wasn’t a more perfect match at the top of the draft than Hutchinson and the Lions. Hutchinson plays a premium position, will get plenty of reps on a young defensive line, and plays in a division with three pass-happy teams.
Also, he’ll play Chicago twice, which will certainly help his case.

Hutchinson is listed as the favorite on most sites, but prior to Kayvon Thibodeaux’s injury, FanDuel had the Giants’ edge rusher as the favorite. I’m typically wary of heavy favorites for an award that can be so wide open, but Hutchinson has some real value and a clear path to double-digit sacks as a rookie. If you can only choose one player, regardless of odds, Hutchinson is my clear favorite.

Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Giants, +700: 1U

The path to a DROY award is relatively simple. The winner can do one of three things: put a ton of pressure on the quarterback (More specifically, sacks), pick off several passes or rack up so many tackles in a down year for the award that there’s no other choice. The knee injury is a bit of a concern, but if he’s back by week 1, all it means is that we can get him at better odds than before.

While I love this defensive back class, there’s an argument to be made that none of the top guys will be tested enough to put up gaudy interception numbers. There are only a couple of linebackers with the opportunity to make enough tackles to be considered, so that leaves the pass rushers. I’m not convinced of Travon Walker’s abilities as an individual pass rusher, which leaves Thibodeaux and Hutchinson as the obvious favorites.

Thibodeaux oozes natural talent and while he could go missing for games at a time at Oregon, he also flashed the ability to completely take over games. If he does that more consistently at the next level, the award is his. But that’s a big “if”.

Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Ravens, +1000 (FanDuel): 1U

Hamilton was one of my favorite picks in the draft and one of my favorite values here. At +1000, he’s tied for the fourth-shortest odds, and first among secondary players. Despite the loss of defensive guru Wink Martindale, the Ravens will likely continue to play an aggressive style of defense.

That will allow Hamilton room to roam. In college, he was a walking highlight reel, with excellent closing speed and great instincts. He might make a few mistakes, but he’ll also make some highlight reel plays, giving him a great chance to take home the honors. 

He’s a hybrid safety in the best of ways. He has the athleticism to pick off passes and the physicality to deliver big hits and force fumbles. Since defensive backs can typically only win by racking up several takeaways, I love Hamilton’s chances.

It’s been five years since a defensive back won the award, but Hamitlon has a great chance to do so.

The Longshots

Whenever creating a list of season-long bets, I like to sprinkle in a few longshot bets. Obviously, these have low odds, so these are half and even ¼ unit bets. I’ve got three guys I really like at the lower odds.

Devin Lloyd, Linebacker, Jaguars, +2000 (FanDuel) .5U

Since 2010, only two true off-ball linebackers have won the award, so on paper it seems like Lloyd’s chances are slim. However, when examining those two past winners, we can see a path to victory for Lloyd.

In 2012, Luke Kuechly picked up 164 tackles (only 12 for loss) and five takeaways while Shaquille Leonard in 2018 had four takeaways and 163 tackles. As a senior at Utah, Lloyd forced seven turnovers and added seven sacks.

Linebackers that stuff the stat sheet tend to be viewed favorably by voters and Lloyd should have plenty of opportunities as a rookie. The Jaguars have added a few pieces on offense, but are still likely to struggle, listed with the sixth-lowest odds to win the Super Bowl and an expected win total hovering around 6.

Lloyd plays in the most run-heavy division in football and is likely to see some early deficits, leading to more conservative play calling from opponents. The path is there for him to rack up tackles, so if he adds a few interceptions or fumble recoveries I really like his chances.

Jaquan Brisker, Safety, Bears, +5000 (Draft Kings) .5U

Always pay attention to preseason talk from local beat writers. All camp, Brisker (a second-round pick) immediately turned heads and has consistently been one of the best players on the field. 

In his preseason debut, Brisker was all over the place, notching three tackles and a pass breakup early in the game. He’s fast, instinctual and frequently makes splash plays. In a year where not much else should excite Bears fans, Brisker should be a breath of fresh air.

Now, full disclosure here. Brisker was recently announced to have a hand injury and will be out for the rest of the preseason. That being said, he’s locked up his starting spot and the team is being extra cautious because they know he will be a key cog for a young defense. To boot, the injury has scared some books into dropping his odds. He can now be had at +5000, which is great value for an every down player.

Daxton Hill, Athlete, Bengals, +5000 (MGM) .25U

This is a tough one to predict, but might be one of my favorite picks here. A longshot bet has to have some sort of path to success and Hill’s is unique, which is not a bad thing.

Hill was the most versatile player in the draft and could feasibly start at any number of spots in a talented Bengals secondary. Hill will get plenty of opportunities to shine. Hill will likely be deployed in a variety of ways, which should intrigue announcers and analysts. He’ll get a lot of air time and should make some big plays. It’s a long shot, but there’s a path to success here, and that’s all we need from a +5000 candidate, especially one that some books have listed at much shorter odds.