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The Championship Playoff Race Comes Down to the Last Day!

The drama. The heart-break. The pure and raw emotions of football. The absolute essence and reason why we are all fans of ‘The Beautiful Game’ are manifested in the EFL Championship’s Playoffs. With promotion to the greatest league in England on the table, the Championship Playoffs are of the utmost importance to clubs looking to make it to the promised land. This set of 5 games has provided football with some of the greatest moments ever. Does Watford’s end-to-end goal with Deeney belting the ball into the back of the net off of a Hogg header ring a bell?

However, in order to make it to the playoffs Championship sides must battle it out over a grueling 46-game season. Of course, the primary goal is to secure automatic promotion with a Top 2 finish instead of making the Playoffs, but often the race for 3rd through to 6th is more exciting. As is the case this year in the Championship.

NOTTINGHAM, ENGLAND – MAY 17: Notts Forest fans invade the pitch after winning the the Sky Bet Championship Play-Off Semi Final 1st Leg match between Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United at City Ground on May 17, 2022 in Nottingham, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Already qualified for automatic promotion are Burnley and Sheffield United. The two sides have had respectable seasons and will be looking to bounce back into the Premier League after short stints in England’s second tier.

Aside from Burnley and Sheffield United, there are a couple of other sides locked in the Championship’s Top 6. Luton Town and Middlesborough have both secured their places in the Playoffs with 3rd and 4th places respectively. Unfortunately though for both sides, they have had a lack of success in the Championship’s post-season in recent history. Luton qualified for the playoffs last season but lost to Huddersfield 2-1 on aggregate. Similarly, Middlesborough have not been in the playoffs since the 2017/18 season where they lost 1-0 to Aston Villa.

Despite this lack of luck, both sides have had campaigns to remember and will feel confident that they can make it to Wembley and reach the Premier League.

Luton Town’s story has taken the media by storm, with the club not competing in England’s top flight since 1992. Interestingly, The Hatters’ stadium would be one of the smallest ever stadiums if they get promoted to the Premier League. Kenilworth Road has a capacity of only 10,226 and is the current smallest stadium in the Championship. Even if Luton were in League 1, their home ground would be smaller than 9 other sides.

Middlesborough will look to rely on star striker Chuba Akpom in these playoffs. The Arsenal academy graduate has bagged 28 goals in 37 games this season to become the league’s top goal scorer for 2022/23. This also propelled his case for EFL Championship Player of the Season which he eventually won. With Akpom being involved in 36% of The Boro’s goals this season, he will be a shining light for Middlesborough in these upcoming Playoffs.

Unlike the four sides mentioned until now, there is absolutely no guarantee for the following 5 contending sides: Coventry City, Millwall, Sunderland, West Brom, and Blackburn. These five hopeful sides have left it until the last day to qualify for the Playoffs and the eyes of all football fans will surely be on them. With 3 points being the difference between 5th and 9th, there really can be no mistake for these sides coming into the 46th match week of the season.

Coventry City are currently in the driver’s seat to qualify and a lot must go wrong for them to fail. In fact, 538 Statistics – a website that uses statistical analysis to make predictions on football standings and fixtures – states there is an 88% chance the Sky Blues make it into the Playoffs. On the last matchday, Coventry play Middlesborough who have already qualified. Most likely, this will be the 4th versus 5th place matchup in the first round of the Playoffs if the Sky Blues do not choke on the final matchday.

Coventry will come into this fixture feeling absolutely nothing but confidence. In their last 6 games, Coventry have been undefeated and conceded just 4 goals. In fact, the Sky Blues have only lost 2 games since the start of February. Also, the fact that they play Middlesborough comes at an advantage. With The Boro having already secured a Playoff spot, they could play a rotated lineup to give the likes of Akpom, Hackney, and Barlaser some much-needed rest. Essentially, Coventry could play a weaker Middlesborough and only need one point to secure a spot in the Championship Playoffs.

Up next are Millwall who are in 6th place before the last match. With 68 points, The Lions might need all three points in their blockbuster game against Blackburn Rovers to secure their place. This match is arguably the game of the round, with so many possible outcomes coming from it. From a Millwall point of view, they would be quite insistent on collecting three points given their inferior goal difference to Sunderland and West Brom. Despite having 2 more points than 7th and 8th place, a victory for Sunderland and/or West Brom could see The Lions miss out on the Playoffs if they do not defeat Blackburn.

Unfortunately though for Millwall, their recent form has not set the world alight. With 3 losses in their last 5 game and a narrow win to relegation-bound Blackpool, The Lions will need to stay composed and lock in for what could be a Championship classic.

From Blackburn’s perspective, a lot of things need to go right for them to qualify for the Playoffs. Currently, in 9th place, the Blue and Whites are equal on points with West Brom and Sunderland. However, their terrible goal difference of -3 places them in a sticky situation on the last day. Nonetheless, they still are within a fighting chance.

Blackburn must go to The Den and defeat Millwall on their own home turf. Also, the Rovers would need both West Brom and Sunderland to not pick up victories if they hope to have a playoff birth.

An issue though for Blackburn is their horrific away-from-home form. With 23 points in 22 games, Blackburn sit in 19th place in the Championship this season on the road. Also, they’ve only won 1 out of their last 11 away league games. With the standings not just in their hands and their lack of confidence away from home, head coach jon Dahl Tomasson must galvanize his players if Blackburn have any hope of reaching the Playoffs.

Sitting on the edge of qualification is 7th-placed Sunderland. With 66 points acquired so far, Sunderland will be hoping to make the Playoffs for the second consecutive season. The recently promoted side entered the Championship after making it all the way to the EFL League 1 Play-off last season. Whilst their game against Preston North End is a must-win game, they can be quite hopeful that they will keep their end of the deal and collect all 3 points this evening.

Despite Preston North End being 11th placed in the Premier League, their home form this season is demoralizing. Interestingly, they sit in 18th place in the Championship at home this season; great news for Sunderland. Moreover, Sunderland’s 36 points in 22 away games place them in 4th place on the road in England’s second tier.

However, the fate of the 2022/23 season for the Black Cats does not rest solely on their shoulders. To get into the Playoffs, Sunderland would need Millwall to either lose or draw or they would need Coventry City to lose. Nevertheless, Sunderland fans will be hoping that one of England’s largest clubs returns to the summit and returns to the Premier League. Perhaps, this is one of their biggest chances in recent history.

SUNDERLAND, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 17: Pepe Reina of Liverpool is rooted to the spot as Darren Bent of Sunderland (obscured) scores during the Barclays Premier League match between Sunderland and Liverpool at the Stadium of Light on October 17, 2009 in Sunderland, England. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Last but by far not least are West Brom Albion. 8th placed West Brom are also on 66 points but have a slightly worse goal difference than Sunderland. On the last matchday, The Baggies must play Swansea City. West Brom’s trip to Wales is not an easy fixture, as West Brom sit in 10th place and are only 3 points behind The Baggies.

West Brom’s season, like Blackburn, is nearly entirely dependent on those around them. The Baggies must pick up all 3 points in Wales but also need Millwall, Coventry City and potentially Sunderland to drop points. West Brom need at the minimum Millwall to lose or draw. They would also at minimum need Sunderland to not win, unless The Baggies are able to make up 3 goal difference on Sunderland. If the Black Cats do win though, West Brom would also need Coventry to lose as well as Millwall. Not only would Coventry need to lose, but West Brom would need to make up 5 goal difference on the current 5th placed side.

(Photo by Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images)

Ultimately, match week 46 of the 2022/23 Championship season is absolutely pivotal and vital for many sides in their journey to the Premier League. With so many matches of utmost importance being played at once, it is almost inevitable that a historic moment will come about for one of these sides. Regardless of who is successful in reaching the Championship’s Playoffs, this evening’s games will be a spectacle for all football aficionados to sit back and enjoy!

By Gilad Nagar – 08/05/2023

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