By Andrew Doherty
Here. We. Go.
The first Sunday of NFL football is upon us and it’s time to take advantage of the most inefficient lines out there: player props. There’s no shortage of different odds being offered at different books, so as always I advise shopping around for the best odds. While it’s tempting to give into the excitement from the return of the NFL and bet half the board, it’s important to keep ourselves in check with a few smart bets to start of this season the right way: by winning.
Austin Hooper over 22.5 yards receiving
It’s easy to forget how good Hooper is at finding the soft spots in zone coverage after his tenure in Cleveland, but it’s something he truly has a knack for. Against a Giants defense that really doesn’t have the personnel to play a ton of man coverage even against a team like the Titans with so few options in the passing game, Hooper is in a prime spot to take advantage. The Giants game plan will obviously be centered around stopping Derrick Henry, and this creates opportunities for Hooper specifically. A large part of Tennessee’s passing game will come off play action, and New York’s linebackers will be baited into coming downhill early to stop Henry thus opening the middle of the field for Hooper. In a game where he should see decent volume and is an afterthought for the opposing defense, I love the over for Hooper on Sunday.
Rashod Bateman over 46.5 yards receiving
Bateman enters Week One as the clear-cut top option in Baltimore at receiver. With the Jets likely to focus their attention on stopping star tight end Mark Andrews, it’s going to create plentiful one-on-one opportunities for Bateman. After averaging 5.6 targets per game as a rookie behind Marquise Brown on the depth chart, Bateman’s added volume in 2022 should easily push him past the modest 46.5-yard prop line. You won’t see a line this low for Bateman again this season.
Michael Carter over 12.5 yards receiving:
Carter enters Week One as the unquestioned starter at running back for the Jets, but he isn’t being treated like it by oddsmakers. Carter, who was an excellent pass catcher in 2021, projects to see plenty of volume in the passing game as the Jets aren’t likely to have much success pushing the ball downfield against the Ravens defense. This low receiving total is a product of the assumption that New York’s coaching staff is giving this years second round selection Breece Hall the “rookie treatment”, but according to Offensive Coordinator Mike LaFleur it’s Carter that is “the heartbeat of our offense”. Carter should clear this low total by halftime.
Darnell Mooney over 4.5 receptions
This is a smash spot for Mooney – he’s the only viable option in the Bears wide receiver room. Chicago’s weak offensive line will be overwhelmed with San Francisco’s pass rush and quarterback Justin Fields is going to need to get the ball out quickly, creating plenty of short, high percentage throws. The 49ers are likely to take control of this game early, forcing the Bears into a negative game script where they’ll be forced to throw more. Chicago’s coaching staff may also want to boost Fields confidence to start the game with plenty of dink and dunk easy completions. With very little target competition in a game where the Bears should be throwing early and often, Mooney should easily surpass 4.5 receptions.
Dak Prescott over 35.5 pass attempts and/or over 269.5 passing yards
The logic here is simple: Tampa Bay allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game last season. Factor in the banged-up offensive line for Dallas, and it this matchup in the trenches starts looking pretty lopsided. We saw Dallas struggle to move the ball on the ground against Tampa Bay last year, and with the Bucs addition of Akiem Hicks to their already stout defensive line it projects to be more of the same in 2022. Dak and the Cowboys offense will be forced into passing situations early and often when they’re unable to get their ground attack going.
