By Scott Kacsmar
The Tennessee Titans followed a 7-3 start with a 7-game losing streak to miss the playoffs and lose out on what looked like a sure division title. It would have been the team’s third AFC South title in a row.
Now, the Titans are playing second fiddle to Jacksonville, the new darlings of the division. The Titans have an over/under win total of 7.5 wins, two games below the Jacksonville line.
Like Houston and Indianapolis, the Titans drafted a quarterback with a high pick in April, landing Will Levis in the second round. But unlike those teams, they still plan to start Ryan Tannehill and bench the rookie for now.
Consider this the last run for Tannehill and company. It could be the last for head coach Mike Vrabel too if things go too south.
We look at 2022’s tale of two seasons, the key offseason changes, the stacked AFC, and the best Titans bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: Tale of Two Seasons
In hindsight, Tennessee’s 7-3 start and 0-7 finish make sense from a schedule perspective.
- During the 7-3 start, the Titans did not beat a single team that finished 2022 with a winning record.
- During the 0-7 finish, the Titans lost to six playoff teams. The only non-playoff opponent was Houston, a division rival who came back to win 19-14 in a game rookie quarterback Malik Willis had to start for an injured Tannehill.
- All of Tennessee’s losses during the 7-3 start were to playoff teams (Giants, Bills, and Chiefs), though the Titans were a 47-yard field goal away from winning that New York game in Week 1.
- Five of their wins were 1-score games against non-winning teams, including the Raiders, Colts, Commanders, Texans, and Broncos.
- Arguably the team’s most impressive game was going toe to tie before an overtime loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City despite Willis struggling – the offense had 7 net yards on the final 10 possessions.
The hallmark of Tennessee’s success in 2019-21 was winning many of the games they were not expected to. But last year, their results were pretty much dictated by the schedule.
That still doesn’t make the slide disappointing. At 7-3, the Titans lost another close game at home to the Bengals. They were embarrassed 35-10 in Philadelphia, and that was not too surprising with the way the Eagles were rolling.
A big part of Philadelphia’s Super Bowl success was acquiring wide receiver A.J. Brown in that draft night trade last April. It was also the move that did a lot to tank Tennessee’s season. The Titans did not have a receiver with more than 527 yards last year. Tannehill had his least effective season in Tennessee. The passing game was broken for much of the season save for a sound performance in Green Bay, the only time the Titans had over 300 net passing yards in a 2022 game.
To make matters worse, Brown had 8 catches for 119 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the blowout of Tennessee. It does not feel like a coincidence that the Titans fired general manager Jon Robinson, a rare move for December, just two days later.
The first loss at home against Jacksonville was obviously crucial too. The Titans were sloppy with four turnovers, including a pair of lost fumbles by Derrick Henry. That could have been the division title right there, because a week later in a 17-14 loss to the Chargers, Tannehill was injured. He tried to gut his way through it, but he never played another down last season.
The Titans were screwed at this point because Willis was unable to pass for 100 yards in any of his three starts as the passing game, without a legitimate receiver, was too much for him to handle. Even with Henry rushing for another 126 yards against Houston, it was not enough this time as the Texans pulled off a rare comeback in a 19-14 win.
You knew the Titans were desperate when they signed quarterback Joshua Dobbs and started him 8 days later against Dallas. He was an improvement over Willis with 232 yards passing, but the best he could do was 13 points against an elite defense.
It all came down to Week 18 in Jacksonville for the division title. The Titans had to win with Dobbs to make the playoffs. Dobbs was playing on par with Trevor Lawrence in a low-scoring game, but he made a fatal mistake with a 16-13 lead in the final 3:00. An unblocked rusher got to Dobbs as he was passing and the ball fluttered out to a defender, who returned it for a game-winning touchdown. Dobbs was unable to answer the score in the 20-16 defeat.
Without Tannehill, the Titans would not have been much of a threat in the playoffs anyway. But the confidence this team has given Jacksonville with the comeback from a 2-6 start, the sweep of the Titans, and a subsequent playoff win could be damaging for years to come.
But maybe the Titans already peaked in 2021 and blew their Super Bowl window against the Bengals, then for sure nailed the coffin by trading Brown to the Eagles.
Offseason Review
This is the first season in Tennessee for new general manager Ran Carthon, who was hired in January. Carthon started his NFL career as a backup running back for Peyton Manning’s Colts in 2004. He got into scouting with the Falcons before moving up to director of player personnel for the Rams during the period when they drafted Aaron Donald. He also had that title in San Francisco the last two years.
But on the field, the Titans are not making many huge changes. They fired offensive coordinator Todd Downing, which is not going to upset fans. His replacement is Tim Kelly, who had the unenviable job of passing game coordinator last year for a team with little passing game to speak of. Before that, Kelly was in Houston where he had some success with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, and that also means he knows how to use DeAndre Hopkins, the latest No. 1 receiver in Tennessee.
You could say veteran receivers go to Tennessee to die, but Hopkins feels he still has some good years left at 31 years old. If he stays healthy, a 1,000-yard season is not out of the question. Still, this won’t beat having A.J. Brown in town, but that is a bridge this team decided to burn already.
Otherwise, the Titans are hoping their second-year skill players improve significantly, including wideout Treylon Burks and tight end Chig Okonkwo. Both had some solid per-target numbers last year, but they should take on a bigger role.
Derrick Henry returns and should be happy to see the team invest at offensive line with the first-round selection of new left guard Peter Skoronski. Many thought he could be the best guard in this draft class. He is a Week 1 starter.
But defense is going to have to help this team keep games close, and they will not get any help from their draft class as all six picks were used on offense, which is a rare move.
The Titans signed corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, a grabby defender from Tampa Bay who can start right away in a secondary still led by safety Kevin Byard.
The biggest move for the defense is simply getting Harold Landry, their best pass rusher, back from a torn ACL suffered last August. He signed a new contract and was injured before he could back it up. Landry had a career-high 12 sacks in 2021. It is reasonable to think he won’t be 100% this season as many players aren’t in Year 1 of an ACL return, but he will help this pass rush which ranked 18th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate without him according to Pro Football Reference.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Are the Titans Just Old News?
We usually like to use this section to talk about a team’s chances of seeing their young quarterback break out, or if they’ll meet regression in a key statistical area from last year. But with the Titans, there is not a whole lot going on with this team that is interesting.
It almost feels like a team in purgatory. We are seeing the last days of Tannehill, who is now one of the oldest quarterbacks in the NFL at 35, before the inevitable move to Will Levis. It could even happen later this season should the losses pile up or given Tannehill’s long injury history.
Tannehill to Hopkins, who does not get much separation, is not the most exciting duo you could ask for. This offense worked better with Brown’s speed and strength taking advantage of the run-heavy looks with Henry.
Speaking of Henry, we know he will play a huge role again, but he is 29 years old and coming off a season where he had an NFL-high 349 carries. It was the third time in four years that he led the league in carries. He is no doubt running out of elite years. The Titans used a third-round pick on Tyjae Spears to back up Henry.
A 35-year-old quarterback, a 31-year-old wide receiver, and a 29-year-old running back. That is a lot of mileage together, and so far none of it has led to a Super Bowl. The Titans will likely fall victim to The Five-Year Rule this season, meaning no team has ever won its first Super Bowl by starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five seasons. This is Year 5 for Tannehill and Vrabel in Tennessee, and it is hard to imagine they will get closer than they did in 2019 (lost AFC Championship Game in Kansas City) or 2021 (lost in divisional round as No. 1 seed in a year where they crushed the Chiefs and Rams in the regular season).
This is an aging core in an AFC that is getting younger and deeper, Aaron Rodgers’ age aside. But Rodgers going to the Jets and Sean Payton coming back to coach Denver just adds to the list of contenders in the AFC that feel closer to the top than Tennessee right now.
Playing in the AFC South no doubt helps, but the Jaguars have a coach with big-game experience, Lawrence seems to have had his breakout moment, and they even added a more interesting weapon (Calvin Ridley) than the Titans did with Hopkins.
For a team who used to employ Jeff Fisher, the coach infamous for 7-9 record jokes, the Titans may just be that kind of team again. Stuck in purgatory. Stuck in the 7-to-9 win range and not able to do anything about it come playoff time.
Best Bets for the 2023 Titans
Of the last 19 teams to end the season on a losing streak of 6-to-8 games, 15 of them failed to win more than 7 games the following season. That is a daunting rate, but the Ravens and Giants were both able to make this turnaround last year. Of course, it helped that Lamar Jackson came back for the Ravens (before getting injured in December again), and the Giants hired Brian Daboll, the reigning Coach of the Year.
The other two teams pulling off over 7.5 wins also made big changes. The 2016-17 Rams hired Sean McVay to be the head coach, and they brought in a whole new wide receiver corp. The 2017-18 Texans got Deshaun Watson back from a torn ACL for 2018, a playoff season.
The Titans are not doing anything as fancy, but don’t you feel like if a healthy Tannehill started the Week 18 game in Jacksonville, they could have won the AFC South again? They almost did with Dobbs.
While nothing would say purgatory like an 8-9 season that misses the playoffs, the Titans are slightly favored to go over 7.5 wins. When you look at the schedule, it makes sense too.
For starters, the Titans could get halfway to 8 wins by sweeping the Colts and Texans, two teams who will be starting a rookie quarterback for a rookie head coach. At least the Titans are still going with Vrabel and Tannehill, who know how to win these games against bad competition.
Also, regression hit the Titans in a ridiculous way last year.
In 2021, the Titans were 8-3 (.727) in games against winning teams, based on their record at the end of the season. That was the highest winning percentage against winning teams in NFL history (min. 9 games played) and the most wins any team has ever had in a season against winning teams. The 17-game season no doubt helped achieve this, helping to turn 8-8 teams into 9-8 winning teams, but still.
Yet in 2022, the Titans were 0-9 against winning teams, which tied for the worst record in the NFL since 2015. What a decline.
If you look at the non-division schedule for the Titans this year, they face an NFC South division that was one of the worst ever last year. Those are winnable games for this team, especially hosting Atlanta and Carolina. The Titans will also play the likes of Seattle, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and the Chargers.
Maybe being underdogs will serve Vrabel’s team well. Our best bets still include missing the playoffs, but the Titans should be in that .500 range, which means over 7.5 wins.
NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans over 7.5 wins (-132 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans to miss playoffs (-250 at FanDuel)
