By Scott Kacsmar
The Baltimore Ravens are no strangers to quarterback controversies, but their decision on Lamar Jackson is going to be one of the most important moments in franchise history. This should have major ramifications on the remainder of coach John Harbaugh’s tenure and how the team fares this decade.
Signing one of the best quarterbacks in the league to a second contract is usually a no-brainer in the NFL, but this situation does have some unprecedented nuances to it.
Should you break the bank on a player who has a higher injury risk than most at his position? Should you go all in on a quarterback who has not excelled against the best of his peers and in the postseason?
Jackson serving as his own agent has likely complicated matters, but the Ravens’ history of conducting business at this position is also responsible for creating this potentially messy situation as the words “holdout” and “trade” are being floated out there.
Baltimore has until March 7th to decide to place a franchise or transition tag on Jackson, who has played through his five-year rookie contract. If tagged, the Ravens will have until July to work out a long-term contract with Jackson.
The Ravens also could just tag and trade Jackson, and we know in this quarterback-hungry league, there will be a line of suitors for the 26-year-old quarterback’s services.
So, should the Ravens trade Lamar Jackson or not?
Baltimore Can Blame This on Itself (And Deshaun Watson)
The Dilfer Decision
The Ravens playing hardball with their quarterback’s contract is not exactly a new story. After the 2000 Ravens won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer, the team chose to not re-sign him for the 2001 season, which is still the only time in NFL history where a team let go of its Super Bowl-winning quarterback after the big game.
There was at least an argument for it. Dilfer was a caretaker who rode a historic defense to a ring that many would have won in his place. However, Elvis Grbac was not a good replacement in 2001, and some teammates of Dilfer’s criticize that move to this day.
After toiling around with a bust like Kyle Boller, a replacement-level starter in Anthony Wright, and the past-his-prime version of Steve McNair, the Ravens hit rock bottom in 2007 and needed to make a move at the most important position.
The Flacco Fallacy
Enter Joe Flacco in the first round of the 2008 draft. The team again rode a great defense to its first AFC Championship Game since the 2000 season, but Flacco’s rookie mistakes were too much to overcome and he threw a pick-six to Troy Polamalu.
But Flacco would improve and was the right kind of serviceable quarterback a team with the ability to run and defend needed. He should have had the Ravens in the Super Bowl in his fourth year, but in the 2011 AFC Championship Game in New England, he watched Lee Evans drop a game-winning touchdown in the end zone and Billy Cundiff missed a 33-yard game-tying field goal in a 23-20 loss.
Prior to the 2012 season, Flacco reportedly turned down an offer of $16 million per season from the Ravens. He decided to bet on himself and that he could make more than that. He compared himself to the best quarterbacks in the league with no lack of confidence.
In the 2012 regular season, he did not exactly back up that statement as a 9-2 start turned into a 10-6 finish. But the Ravens were in the tournament for the fifth year in a row under Flacco, the defense was getting healthy at the right time, Jim Caldwell took over play-calling duties late in the season, and Flacco was about to embark on one of the greatest postseasons in NFL history.
In four playoff games, Flacco passed for 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions, 285 yards per game, and a 117.2 passer rating. He was named Super Bowl MVP after beating the 49ers.
By now, Denver fans are probably having PTSD as Rahim Moore’s botched defense against Jacoby Jones in the divisional round on a 70-yard touchdown is the difference in Flacco losing in Round 2 and going all the way to Disney World with the hardware. That will go down as one of the most consequential plays in NFL history.
Fluke play or not, hot once-in-a-career month or not, the Ravens were not going to let their Super Bowl-winning quarterback get away this time. They signed Flacco to what was a record-breaking contract at the time: six years and $120.6 million.
While only briefly holding the title for richest contract in NFL history, it would set off a series of huge contracts going out to any quarterback who was even remotely decent and capable of getting into the playoffs with their team. Soon, the mid-tier quarterback market did not exist, and you were either paying someone a rookie salary or at least $1 million per start per season.
If you watched Flacco after he was named Super Bowl MVP, you know there were very few starts worth $1 million from him. He won one playoff game the rest of his career, and the Ravens missed the tournament entirely in 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2017.
Essentially, the Ravens overpaid Flacco for a ring he already won for them. With the way he won it, that was just not sustainable or repeatable, but Flacco bet on himself and the team would be crucified by fans and media if they did not bring Flacco back in 2013. He held all the leverage, and they had to pay the price.
Think there may be some buyer’s remorse there from the team?
The Jackson Five-Year Plan
But in 2018, the Ravens used a first-round pick on Lamar Jackson to bring an end to the Flacco era. We will get into Lamar’s five years next, but acting as his own agent, let’s just say he is no stranger to what quarterback contracts look like in the post-Flacco NFL, especially in the AFC:
- In 2020, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes reset the market with a massive 10-year contract worth up to $503 million with over $141 million guaranteed.
- In 2021, Buffalo’s Josh Allen signed a six-year extension worth up to $258 million with $150 million guaranteed.
- In March 2022, Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson signed a new five-year contract worth $230 million and it is fully guaranteed, a new benchmark for NFL contracts.
- In September 2022, Denver’s Russell Wilson signed a five-year extension worth $245 million with $165 million guaranteed.
It was widely reported in September 2022 that Jackson turned down an offer from the Ravens worth $250 million and $133 million guaranteed. Like Flacco a decade earlier, Jackson was going to bet on himself and thought he could get more.
But you have to believe that absurd, fully-guaranteed contract the Browns gave to Watson despite his off-field allegations was a deciding factor in Jackson not signing across the dotted line last September. Why should he settle for barely half of the guaranteed money Watson got when Jackson has been clean off the field and more of a winner on it?
The guaranteed money is what talks these days, and Jackson knows he can be one bad knee injury away from his career coming to a halt before he turns 30. He has been a bargain on his rookie contract for the team, so he is just looking for them to do right by him.
But it is hard to believe Jackson would hold this much leverage if Flacco did not bet on himself a decade ago and change the quarterback market forever into a series of constant market resets and the next guy up breaking the bank even if he isn’t the best player at his position.
It is hard to think the Ravens would have bit on Flacco’s demands if they did not already get blasted for letting their first Super Bowl-winning quarterback go the decade before.
This Jackson situation has been two decades in the making for Baltimore, and the other side of it is the fact that they have built a team so dependent on quarterback play that they cannot trust him to stay healthy for a full season anymore.
This really is their own doing.
Lamar Jackson: The Double-Edged Sword
Right from his first start as a rookie in 2018 when he ran the ball 26 times, Jackson showed that he is one of the most unique talents in NFL history. He helped a 4-5 Baltimore team to a 6-1 finish and the playoffs. In his second year, he exploded as a passer with 36 touchdown passes and set a quarterback record with 1,206 rushing yards to win a unanimous MVP award for the top-seeded Ravens.
You can say Jackson peaked in 2019, but the talent around him has continued to erode, injuries have piled up in historic numbers, and the Ravens have been on the wrong end of many close games in that time. The fact is the Ravens won a playoff game in 2020 with Jackson, and they were 8-4 in each of the last two years before he was injured and never returned in either season.
The Ravens lost their last five games after his 2021 ankle injury and they never scored more than 17 points in the final seven games in 2022 after his PCL injury.
Jackson is 46-19 (.708) as a starter in his career, which puts him on a short list of quarterbacks over 70%. The team wins with him, and they usually put up a fair number of points too. They also have increasingly asked him to do more as the non-quarterback running game has declined and the defense was not a big strength in 2021 and struggled to hold leads in 2022.
There are some flaws, of course. The playoffs have not been good where Jackson is 1-3 with more interceptions (5) than touchdown passes (3). He also has led the Ravens to their season low in points with him at quarterback in the playoffs in 2018, 2019, and 2020. No other quarterback does that so often, let alone three years in a row.
Jackson is also 1-3 against Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs and 1-2 against Josh Allen’s Bills, so the big AFC rival games have not gone very well for him so far. You could also argue his passing ability has not progressed in 2021-22 compared to 2019-20, but it is unclear how much of an impact the injuries around him have played in that.
Most people would likely take Mahomes, Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence over Jackson going forward. Maybe add Jalen Hurts as the lone NFC quarterback to that group. But is there really anyone else you could add to that list ahead of Jackson? He is a valuable quarterback and a game-changing talent.
But how many more Baltimore seasons do we have to add the “if Jackson stayed healthy” caveat before his durability is a legitimate problem?
The Injury Concerns Are Valid
Even though Patrick Mahomes just won a Super Bowl with a high ankle sprain that he aggravated in the last two championship games, other quarterbacks are mere mortals. A quarterback’s health really is everything. While a quarterback sometimes has no control over when their finger hits a helmet on a follow through, or when a defender crashes into their plant leg, there are ways for quarterbacks to protect themselves.
Availability is one of the most important abilities at this position.
Tom Brady just wrapped up (fingers crossed) a 23-year career where he was significantly injured one time in the 2008 season on a hit that tore his ACL. Otherwise, he was good to go for his teams.
Brady is not alone on the list of quarterbacks who were fortunate to get by without a long list of injuries that cost them playing time:
- Brett Favre: May never see his record of 321 consecutive starts broken.
- Philip Rivers: Unfortunately played the biggest game of his career (2007 AFC Championship Game) on a torn ACL, but he never missed a game for injury.
- Eli Manning: Never missed a start for injury and made 222 consecutive starts.
- Peyton Manning: Proving good genes, he went 13 seasons where he missed one play due to injury before the four neck surgeries cost him a full season in Indianapolis and led to some issues late in his career with Denver.
- Drew Brees: Missed one game due to injury in his first 18 seasons (2001-18) before some issues at the end of his career.
- Matt Ryan: Has only missed three games due to turf toe and an ankle issue in 15 years.
- Kirk Cousins: Only a positive COVID test in 2021 has kept Cousins out of action in his career.
- Derek Carr: Say what you will, but a broken leg right before the playoffs in 2016 and a little one-game absence for a back injury in 2017 are his only missed games for injury.
- Deshaun Watson: When it comes to on-field issues, there has only been a torn ACL in 2017.
- Patrick Mahomes: Only a dislocated kneecap (two games) in 2019 so far.
- Josh Allen: Only an elbow injury (four games) in 2018 so far.
Not all but many of these quarterbacks had something in common: a commitment to pocket passing and getting the ball out on time. They did not take a lot of excessive hits and sacks by running in their careers. It is not surprising to see the list of most consecutive starts dominated by pocket passers and not by the running types like John Elway, Fran Tarkenton, Randall Cunningham, Steve Young, Michael Vick, and Cam Newton.
Of the 46 quarterbacks to have a season with at least 75 rushing attempts in NFL history, Russell Wilson is the only one to start at least 80 consecutive games at some point in his career.
But it would not be entirely accurate to say that Jackson is more prone to injury than all other quarterbacks. Some of the most frequently injured quarterbacks do not run with the ball anywhere near as much as Jackson, including Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Teddy Bridgewater. Even Sam Darnold has had five different injuries that led to missed starts, and that does not include a high ankle sprain from the preseason that kept him out of action for the early portion of 2022 in Carolina.
The fact is Jackson is one of 12 active primary starting quarterbacks in the 2022 season who has had four different injuries that led to missed games in his NFL career:
- Matthew Stafford: 14 years, 7 injuries, 35 games missed
- Jimmy Garoppolo: 9 years, 6 injuries, 34 games missed
- Ryan Tannehill: 11 years, 5 injuries, 30 games missed
- Aaron Rodgers: 18 years, 5 injuries, 18 games missed
- Carson Wentz: 7 years, 4 injuries, 18 games missed
- Andy Dalton: 12 years, 5 injuries, 14 games missed
- Lamar Jackson: 5 years, 4 injuries, 13 games missed
- Daniel Jones: 4 years, 4 injuries, 10 games missed
- Tua Tagovailoa: 3 years, 5 injuries, 10 games missed
- Justin Fields: 2 years, 4 injuries, 5 games missed
- Baker Mayfield: 5 years, 4 injuries, 5 games missed
- Jared Goff: 7 years, 4 injuries, 4 games missed
In 2020, Jackson missed one game on two occasions for a positive COVID test and another mysterious illness. No biggie there. But in 2021, he had an ankle sprain that the Ravens said he would return from, and he never did. In 2022, he had a knee injury that the Ravens again said he would return from, and he never did. We found out it was a PCL sprain.
This is not good to have leg injuries and be unavailable for the stretch run two years in a row. It could just be a fluke, and Jackson could go a full eight seasons without another injury like Matthew Stafford once did after shedding the early “injury prone” label in Detroit.
But Jackson’s playing style is so beyond NFL norms that it is hard to feel optimistic about his long-term viability. In the regular season, 34.2% of Jackson’s plays end with him rushing or taking a sack. The closest quarterback (minimum 1,500 passes) in NFL history to that rate is Michael Vick (27.0%). Even Russell Wilson (21.0%) and Steve Young (20.7%), while higher than most, are still far away from that rate.
The quarterback position is changing before our eyes in the NFL, but asking if a quarterback can sustain a workload of 140-plus runs a season is a valid question. We already saw injury problems for Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields this season, two of the only quarterbacks capable of being on Jackson’s level as a runner.
If Jackson’s demand is a 100% fully-guaranteed contract, then it is understandable why the Ravens would not go for that. The injury risk is too high. Let that Browns own their Watson mistake. Just because Cleveland did that foolishness does not mean the Ravens need to follow. They should offer Jackson more in the ballpark of Allen’s $150 million guaranteed. Jackson’s five-year path and future projections do not match that of a player who should be resetting the market with something like $250 million fully guaranteed.
The Ravens jacked up the league’s quarterback market a decade ago. Let’s not do it again.
Conclusion: Let’s Stay Together
Unless a team offers an incredible package of at least three first-round picks, I think the Ravens and Jackson need to find a way to work this out without a trade.
Hoping for a better quarterback to come along in the draft is akin to fool’s gold, and it does not help that the Ravens are usually too well coached to win enough games to avoid a very high draft pick. But just look at how long the Bills had to wait between Jim Kelly and Josh Allen (1996-2018) or Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh (1983-2004). The Jets are still trying to replace Joe Namath, and the Bears had their best quarterback before most homes had a color television set.
The Ravens waited almost 25 seasons to land Jackson. They can certainly give him more than five seasons to make this work, but it is at least understandable why this is not the slam-dunk extension it usually would be.
There also is the fact that no coach-quarterback duo in NFL history won its first Super Bowl together by starting the same quarterback for the same head coach for more than five years. It was Year 5 when Harbaugh and Flacco peaked for their only Super Bowl win. The Ravens have not been back to the AFC Championship Game since.
We just watched Year 5 for Harbaugh and Jackson end with Tyler Huntley losing a playoff game on a fumbled quarterback sneak. Not good news for their prospects of winning one together, but that just may mean Jackson wins one in Baltimore with a different head coach someday.
Or he never wins one at all.
Regardless, you still make the move to keep him in town just to make sure you are relevant and have multiple chances at the tournament. But it still is a two-way process as Jackson can cut back on some running while strengthening his passing, and the Ravens can do a better job of giving him healthy and talented skill players.
They did replace offensive coordinator Greg Roman with Todd Monken, who had success at Georgia with 12 personnel. This could be beneficial to the Ravens if they pair Isaiah Likely with Mark Andrews for a lot of two tight end sets.
The Ravens are going through some changes, but if this past postseason proved anything, you have to have a quarterback to compete in this AFC. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert are all still young too. If the Ravens do not have Jackson, they do not have a real plan to compete.
It looks like Flacco walked so Lamar could run. His next stop is the bank, and we will see if that bank’s area code is still 410 (Baltimore).
