By Scott Kacsmar
The NFL has a Week 9 schedule filled with huge games like Seahawks-Ravens, Cowboys-Eagles, and Bills-Bengals. Sunday even starts with the latest Game of the Year, and this time it is in Germany as the Chiefs take on the Dolphins for AFC superiority. You can bet we have multiple NFL picks for that game as it is going to have a huge impact on the NFL award races this year like MVP and Offensive Player of the Year.
In recapping our Week 8 NFL picks, we had good calls on Jaguars-Steelers (+166), the Saints and Colts both scored 20 points by halftime (+150), and the Panthers (+150) delivered an upset win. But Kirk Cousins outplayed Jordan Love, the Rams’ passing game was a nightmare in Dallas, the Eagles struggled with Washington again, and the Chiefs had only their second wire-to-wire loss in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you something with -400 odds is a good pick. You can play the picks separately or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
1. Dolphins-Chiefs: Big Players Make Big Plays in Big Games
Look, we are fed up with island games having terrible offense this NFL season, but this 9:30 a.m. start in Germany should be a good one with two of the best in the league battling it out for control of home-field advantage in the AFC.
Specifically, former teammates Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should put on a show. Just as Super Bowl 57 started with Jalen Hurts and Kelce scoring touchdowns on their opening drives, do not be surprised if Hill and Kelce both cash in early in this one.
But our 2-pick parlay has Kelce and Hill as anytime touchdown scorers in this one. You know Hill is going to want to have a monster game against the team that drafted and traded him in 2022. You know Kelce is Patrick Mahomes’ most reliable receiver by a margin as wide as the mileage from Kansas City to Germany, and after how bad the Chiefs played last week on offense, they will look to bounce back in a big way against a Miami defense that has been suspect this year.
The other good thing about these players is they can score in a variety of ways as Hill can catch the deep ones and the short plays in the red zone. Kelce can do it with YAC, and he can catch a shovel pass at the 1-yard line and bully his way in.
This is not going to be a 17-9 slow burn like Chiefs-Jaguars or even a 31-17 disappointment like Dolphins-Eagles. These teams are scoring, and the stars are going to deliver for us. Scroll to the bottom to find our second pick on this huge game with even higher odds. This is the safer alternative.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to Score Touchdowns (+185 at FanDuel)
2. Cowboys-Eagles: The Rare Dak Prescott vs. Jalen Hurts Game
Since Philadelphia drafted Jalen Hurts in 2020, there have been 6 games between the Cowboys and Eagles in the NFC East. Incredibly, Hurts and Dak Prescott have only met in 1-of-6 games, a 41-21 win by Dallas at home in 2021.
How does this keep happening?
- Prescott broke his ankle in 2020 and missed both meetings with Dallas.
- In the 2021 regular-season finale, the Eagles rested starters (Hurts included) as their playoff seed was locked up.
- Last season, Cooper Rush started for an injured Dak in Philly, and Gardner Minshew started for an injured Hurts in Dallas. The backup quarterback lost each game.
This actually continues a tradition where Prescott and Carson Wentz rarely met after they were both drafted by these teams in 2016. Either there were injuries, or you had Week 17 games where starters for one team were resting for the playoffs.
But Hurts and Prescott are good to go for Sunday, and it’s a huge game in the NFC East as the Eagles look to become the first team to repeat as division champs since they did it in 2001-04.
Prescott lit up the Eagles in a 40-34 win last December. Despite taking 6 sacks and throwing a pick-six, he converted a 3rd-and-30 and threw for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Hurts and Prescott both threw 4 touchdowns last week and come into this one hot. CeeDee Lamb has been on a tear, and A.J. Brown is on a downright historic run with 6 straight games of 125 receiving yards (NFL record).
Add some injuries in the secondary to both teams, the Eagles not looking as elite defensively as they did in 2022, and I think you have a great shot of both teams scoring 20 points in this one.
If the Washington Commanders can drop 31 points in both games on the Eagles, why can’t Dallas? This isn’t San Francisco, the team the Cowboys have not solved defensively. Look for Mike McCarthy to have a better plan on the road and for this one to be entertaining and high scoring.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (+100 at FanDuel)
3. Bears-Saints: Time to Get Serious in New Orleans
The Saints were the preseason favorite in the NFC South, and we told you in August the easy schedule was going to help this team reach double-digit wins. The schedule has been as advertised as the Lions and Jaguars may be the only teams the Saints face this year that end up winning 10-plus games.
But the Saints have not played as well as expected with Derek Carr struggling on his new team, and even the defense has been leaky the last few weeks. But Carr took advantage of a bad Indianapolis defense last week and played his best game in a Saints uniform with over 300 yards and 2 touchdown passes.
He will hopefully carry that over to this week, a home game with another lousy defense in Chicago. The Bears also have to start rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent again for the injured Justin Fields, and we just watched the Bears trail by at least 3 scores for an entire half against the Chargers, a franchise that will make any game breathtakingly close.
The Saints need to build on last week’s big win and roll the Bears in this one as an 8.5-point home favorite. Alvin Kamara scored 2 touchdowns last week and is a threat on the ground and through the air. No defense has allowed more receiving touchdowns (5) to backs than the Bears this year. We’ll trust Kamara to find the end zone by some means and for the Saints to win in this player performance double.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown/Saints ML (+115 at FanDuel)
4. Colts-Panthers: Frank Reich Revenge Game
The Panthers (1-6) finally got their first win for coach Frank Reich last week. It also snapped a 56-game losing streak when trailing in the fourth quarter, a streak that existed for Carolina since 2018. That’s over, and now Reich gets to take on his former employer in a game that has to be personal for him.
We are not going to go with the upset pick again, even though it does look like a good value pick. Instead, we are going to focus on Reich flexing on the offensive side of the ball against a Colts team that is allowing the most points per game in 2023.
The Panthers are getting more confident on offense with rookie Bryce Young, and they are at home where things have generally gone better this year. The Colts are the only team to score 20 points in every game, so they do a good job of forcing teams into higher-scoring games. The Panthers should be able to get over 20.5 points.
A big reason for that is the continued excellence of receiver Adam Thielen (over/under 66.5 receiving yards), who has gone over 70 yards in 5 straight games. Look for that to happen again as he and the Carolina offense hit their overs for yards and points in this one.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Panthers Over 20.5 Points & Adam Thielen Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (+194 at FanDuel)
5. Giants-Raiders: Happy Josh McDaniels Firing Week
This week, the Raiders fired their head coach, their GM, their offensive coordinator, benched their quarterback for a rookie, and they are still a 1.5-point home favorite. That’s how bad the Giants are right now.
To take advantage of the Vegas locker room finding so much joy in Josh McDaniels’ departure, we are going with a 3-leg parlay to celebrate:
- Raiders Over 19.5 Points
- Josh Jacobs 60+ Rushing Yards
- Davante Adams Over 5.5 Receptions
Interim coach Antonio Pierce has a lot to prove, but he was a linebacker and understands player culture better than McDaniels ever will. Look for him to let his guys have some fun this week, and it is not uncommon to see a team get a boost in their first game after a coach was fired during the season. Check the 2015 Eagles (Chip Kelly), 2020 Lions (Matt Patricia), and 2020 Raiders (Jon Gruden) for some proof of that.
The scoring is what has been so problematic for the Raiders this year. The only game where the Raiders scored more than 18 points was the 21-17 win over New England, and that involved a safety late in the game. Otherwise, the Raiders have not actually scored 20 points on offense in 8 games this year, something we have not seen by a team since the 2009 Redskins. But even that team broke its drought in the 9th game and scored 27 points.
It’s time for the Raiders to start scoring and getting the ball to their best players. That means more Josh Jacobs, who had 61 yards and a touchdown in Detroit. He has rushed for over 60 yards in 3-of-4 games coming into this one, and the Giants rank 29th in yards per carry allowed.
Our last leg is taking Davante Adams to hit his over in receptions (5.5). If you fear this one because rookie Aidan O’Connell is starting the game, don’t. When O’Connell started against the Chargers, Adams had 13 targets, 8 catches, and 75 yards.
On Monday night, we saw Adams as frustrated as we have ever seen him when he slammed his helmet down in the fourth quarter, a quarter where Jimmy Garoppolo missed him twice on long touchdown bombs. Adams finished with 1 catch on 7 targets for 11 yards, one of the worst statistical games of his career. But it was largely the offense’s fault. Adams is still playing well.
Look for the Raiders to get back to getting their best receiver the ball. We’ll avoid going for the touchdown or big yardage since that’s where some of O’Connell’s shortcomings can hurt, but the volume to get Adams targets and catches should absolutely be there.
We also won’t go as far as adding the Raiders winning the game, because these are the Raiders after all. But the offense should perk up this week now that the tyrant coach is out of the building.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Raiders Over 19.5 Points & Josh Jacobs 60+ Rushing Yards & Davante Adams Over 5.5 Receptions (+267 at FanDuel)
6. Vikings-Falcons: Can Lightning Strike Twice?
The Vikings got terrible news this week confirming Kirk Cousins did tear his Achilles, ending his season. Cousins was playing some of his best ball for the 4-4 Vikings, and he is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes (18).
Part of that last stat is that the Vikings only scored their first rushing touchdown of the season last week, but Cousins was still playing well, and Justin Jefferson continues to miss games with a hamstring injury.
Expectations are not high in Minnesota now, and the Vikings are a 3.5-point road underdog in Atlanta. But the Falcons also look weak, and they just allowed Tennessee’s Will Levis to throw for 238 yards and 4 touchdowns in his NFL debut last week. Levis finally unlocked DeAndre Hopkins in that offense.
What if lightning can strike twice against this Atlanta defense? Kevin O’Connell is a pass-happy coach who is not going to suddenly turn Alexnder Mattison and Cam Akers into a dominant rushing offense. He’s going to have rookie quarterback Jaren Hall prepared for this one, and he’s going to feature rookie Jordan Addison with Jefferson still out.
If Levis and Hopkins can do what they did to the Falcons, why can’t Hall and Addison have a good game given this opportunity with Cousins and Jefferson out in an offense designed for passing?
Let’s go with a 3-leg parlay where Hall throws his first NFL touchdown pass, he goes over 185.5 passing yards, and Addison breaks 50 receiving yards for the 7th time in 9 games this year.
Cousins has thrown for over 200 yards in 21 out of 26 games in O’Connell’s offense. Hall is not Cousins, but he has an opportunity this weekend just like Levis did last week.
Alas, if you are worried the Vikings go against their word and play newly traded quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, then you could always just play Addison to get 60+ yards and T.J. Hockenson to get 40+ yards for +285 odds.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jaren Hall Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns & Jaren Hall Over 185.5 Passing Yards & Jordan Addison 50+ Receiving Yards (+247 at FanDuel)
7. Dolphins-Chiefs: Instant Classic Parlay
Finally, we have an ambitious 6-leg parlay with +1200 odds for the big game in Germany. Nothing to do with the point spread but there is definitely a Kansas City lean on this one following last week’s shocking loss in Denver:
- Over 50.5 Points
- Chiefs Over 25.5 Points
- Patrick Mahomes Over 283.5 Passing Yards
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted
- Jaylen Waddle Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
- Travis Kelce Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
These teams have not met since 2020 in a 33-27 win by the Chiefs in Miami where Mahomes and Tua both threw for over 300 yards with multiple touchdowns and a pick. That could be a good scoring range for this one, but we again are leaning towards the Chiefs being the higher team to help push this over 50.5 points.
Kansas City’s defense has not allowed more than 24 points yet this season, and even all of Denver’s points last week came on drives that started at the 50 or better. That’s also why we have Tagovailoa throwing an interception, because he has been picked in 6-of-8 games this season, and the Chiefs have the better defense in this matchup.
Mahomes should be over his little flu bug, and he rarely stacks bad games, so look for him to bounce back against an underwhelming defense and hit his over in passing yards with a 300-yard game likely.
Jalen Ramsey made his Miami debut last week and recorded an interception, but Travis Kelce is still the best receiver on the Chiefs, and it is unlikely that Ramsey will draw that assignment. Kelce should have a big game and we already bet on his touchdown earlier in the first pick, so let’s go with his over in yards as the Chiefs prove they can still light it up in a shootout.
Finally, we didn’t want to double dip on Tyreek Hill, and there is a chance the Chiefs will go out of their way to limit him in this one. That is why we have Jaylen Waddle going over 65.5 yards as he is a great No. 2, has a ton of speed as well, and he just had a season-high 121 yards last week against the Patriots. Waddle has gone over 65.5 yards in 3-of-7 games this season, but he dealt with a concussion midway through the year, and this should be a game where the Dolphins need to throw and score a fair amount to win.
It will hopefully be an instant classic in Germany to kick off what will hopefully be the best Sunday in the NFL so far this season with this schedule.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Over 50.5 Points & Chiefs Over 25.5 Points & Patrick Mahomes Over 283.5 Passing Yards & Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted & Jaylen Waddle Over 65.5 Receiving Yards & Travis Kelce Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (+1200 at BetRivers)
