By Scott Kacsmar
The NFL has a strong Week 7 schedule with Lions-Ravens highlighting Sunday’s early afternoon slate, the best division rivalry to watch this decade continues when the Chargers and Chiefs meet at 4:25, and Sunday night could be amazing for scoring when the Dolphins play the Eagles. We have cooked up some interesting plays (all +100 or better) for these games and others.
In recapping Week 6’s NFL picks, it looked like the day was going south in a hurry the moment the Titans muffed a punt with 1 second left, leading to a Baltimore field goal and killing our first half under bet by 1 point. The 49ers and Falcons did not help us out either with Brock Purdy and Desmond Ridder playing their worst games, and the Bears proved fraudulent as an upset pick. We almost got back to even with Chargers-Cowboys finishing as a very close game as expected Monday night, but we’ll just have to do better this week.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you the Seahawks should bounce back to beat the Cardinals as a 7.5-point home favorite with -390 odds. You can play the picks separately or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
1. Steelers-Rams: Cooper Kupp Going Beast Mode
Cooper Kupp is back on his 2021 level when he was Super Bowl MVP and authored arguably the best season in NFL history by a wide receiver. Rookie Puka Nacua was stealing his thunder early this season when Kupp was recovering from a hamstring injury, but he returned two weeks ago and immediately has posted lines of 8 catches for 118 yards and 7 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown.
Tyreek Hill has the speed, but Kupp may be the best in the game at consistently producing at a high level. He’s always open at every level of the field.
Kupp gets a dream matchup with a Pittsburgh defense that has great edge rushers (T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith) that should give Matthew Stafford some trouble, but the secondary has been terrible.
No. 1 wideouts have chewed the Steelers up this year, including Davante Adams (13 catches for 172 yards, 2 TD), Nico Collins (7 catches for 168 yards, 2 TD), and Brandon Aiyuk (8 catches for 129 yards, 2 TD). Amari Cooper also had 90 yards for the Browns on a night where Deshaun Watson was awful.
You could even get gutsier and throw in a touchdown for Kupp, but we have plenty of more daring plays to come in the rest of our picks. His line is over/under 92.5 receiving yards here, and we are going up to him topping the 100-yard mark.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Cooper Kupp 100+ Receiving Yards (+110 at FanDuel)
2. Dolphins-Eagles: Shootout Parlay
This has the highest odds of our 7 picks this week, but it’s our No. 2 most confident play because of the confidence in this being a high-scoring game. Here are the three legs to this parlay:
- Tua Tagovailoa 250+ Passing Yards
- Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- A.J. Brown 70+ Receiving Yards
Why should this work out? Unlike most Sunday night games this year, these offenses are actually both great. They are No. 1 and No. 2 in yards and first downs gained. The defenses are not great as Miami has struggled under new coordinator Vic Fangio while the Eagles have taken some steps back on that side of the ball too after 70 sacks last year.
But something we have seen from Miami under coach Mike McDaniel is a willingness to throw on the road in big games when the defense is struggling. Last year, Miami had 8 road games where the team allowed 27+ points, and the quarterbacks had over 275 passing yards in 5 of those games. It happened again this year when Tua passed for 466 yards against the Chargers and 282 yards against the Bills in a loss. He has passed for 260-plus yards in every game this year except for the Patriots when he finished with 249.
But we know the Eagles are bigger scoring threats, so expect Tua to hit 250, which is really a modest total for him in this matchup. Speaking of scoring threats, Jalen Hurts is still the best one for the Eagles in the red zone even if his passing has been suspect this year. Hurts has 5 of the team’s 7 rushing touchdowns, and we know all about the Brotherly Shove being an unstoppable play. In a game that should have several touchdowns, we feel good about Hurts adding to his stats there.
The final leg is A.J. Brown, who has gone over 125 yards in 4 straight games. Tyreek Hill is getting all the attention for his ridiculous numbers this year, but Brown is a big-time receiver too, and he usually shows up for big games like this. With DeVonta Smith having hamstring problems and the expected shootout here, we like Brown to hit 70 yards for the 6th time in 7 games this season.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Tua Tagovailoa 250+ Pass Yards + Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer + A.J. Brown 70+ Receiving Yards (+276 at FanDuel)
3. Bills-Patriots: Josh Allen Owns Bill Belichick
The transfer of power in the AFC East has largely been determined by Josh Allen’s breakout year in Buffalo in 2020, and the way he has mastered playing Bill Belichick’s defense. It also helps that the Patriots have not found a quarterback yet who can keep up with Allen, so now they know how Buffalo felt for two decades with their quarterbacks facing Tom Brady.
Since 2020, Allen is 6-1 against the Patriots and the only loss was in extreme wind in 2021. It could be a little rainy and windy on Sunday, but the forecast sounds like nothing major. Allen is a Buffalo quarterback, so he’s used to bad weather.
Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in 5-of-6 games against the Patriots since 2020. Even when the Buffalo offense struggled last week against the Giants in a 14-9 game, Allen still found two of his lesser receivers for touchdowns. Count on him to do it again here, and for the 8.5-point favorite Bills to win this game against what looks like the worst New England team in over 20 years.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns + Bills ML (+110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
4. Packers-Broncos: Sean Payton Can’t Start 0-4 At Home, Can He?
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Sean Payton and Russell Wilson are 1-5, including a 0-3 record at home this year. The offense has started to sputter in recent weeks after an encouraging start, and the defense remains last in most categories.
It’s gotten so bad that the Broncos are a 1.5-point home underdog to a mediocre Green Bay team that lost to the Raiders in their last outing.
But I think this is the week to trust Denver again. The Broncos were very close in the home losses, including two losses to Vegas and Washington by a combined 3 points. The defense has also improved after getting safety Justin Simmons back, and he had another interception of Patrick Mahomes in a 19-8 loss last time out.
That’s another reason I like Denver. Even if the Packers had a bye week to prepare, it’s not a normal rest advantage since the Broncos played last Thursday and also had a few extra days to prepare for this one.
Green Bay is mediocre at best on both sides of the ball, and I still trust Wilson more than Love, who loves to throw into tight windows and could be a big interception threat again in this game. With the Broncos still having some solid players in the secondary, I think Denver will win the turnover battle and get a close win at home to avoid falling to 0-4 at Mile High.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Broncos ML (+100 at FanDuel)
5. Lions-Ravens: Another Close Game
This feels like the slugfest of the week and what should be the best game in the early slate. We know the Ravens have a run-first mentality and always play sound defense. We know the Lions want to become that team under Dan Campbell, and they have done a solid job of it with the defensive improvement this year. Both coaches also are not afraid of going for fourth downs.
The Lions are missing their workhorse back David Montgomery, but they get rookie Jahmyr Gibbs back to start in his place. He is still looking for his first touchdown, and that could be another play for this game and a safer one at that.
But I just get the sense we’re going to see a game decided by 1-4 points here. The Ravens have a history of playing close games since 2021, and we haven’t seen it as much this year, but they did have 3-point outcomes against the Bengals and Colts. They were down 14-10 in Pittsburgh before a late fumble led to another field goal for the Steelers in a shocking 17-10 upset.
The Lions are good against the spread under Campbell, and we’ve seen them win 21-20 in Kansas City on opening night. They only lost by 3 points to both the Eagles and Bills, elite teams, last year.
I don’t see Baltimore running away with things against a solid defensive front, and Jared Goff is playing well with his receivers. I don’t see Detroit running it up on this Baltimore defense, which has allowed a league-low 4.0 net yards per pass attempt.
A very close game that goes down to the wire is what I see here, and that’s why the pick is +4.5 for both sides. Should be a good one.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Lions +4.5 & Ravens +4.5 (+193 at FanDuel)
6. Chargers-Chiefs: The Perfect Game Script
The Chargers (+5.5) losing to Dallas lost some of the shine for this matchup, but they must play with desperation if they want to stay alive in this AFC West race in a division the Chiefs have absolutely owned since 2016.
This is my favorite division rivalry to watch in the 2020s because you get high-level quarterback play and the games are always close. In fact, Justin Herbert has led at halftime in all 6 games he’s played against the Chiefs, including all 5 against Patrick Mahomes. He’s also led in the fourth quarter of every game, but Mahomes always seems to find a way to get the Chiefs back on top for the win. Herbert is 1-4 against Mahomes despite stellar stats against this defense.
We have a very specific 3-leg parlay for the game script in this one:
- Chiefs +4.5
- Chargers +8.5
- Chargers +3.5 First-Half Spread
The first leg is an obvious one. The Chiefs have gone 39 straight games without losing by more than 4 points, which is an NFL record. The Chiefs should win this game, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy.
As for the Chargers +8.5, is it not a weekly tradition to watch the Chargers in a 1-score game in the fourth quarter? The 5 meetings between Mahomes and Herbert ended 23–20, 30-24, 34-28, 27-24, and 30-27 – all games decided by 3-to-6 points with a pair going to overtime.
Even if we acknowledge the Chargers are still bad on defense and the Chiefs are much better on defense, we’ve seen the Chargers hang 36-34 with Miami and 20-17 with Dallas, two talented teams and contenders. Plus, division games can be very close with the familiarity factor. The Chargers rarely lose by more than 8 points, and the Chiefs have only won 2 of their last 9 games by more than 8 points.
The first half spread is testing where my jinxing powers are. Chargers +3.5 in the first half has hit in 33-of-40 games coached by Brandon Staley, including 16 in a row. Remember, the second half is usually the issue for the Chargers – not how they start games, and again, Herbert has led at halftime in every game against the Chiefs.
Finally, is there a concern with the Chargers having a short week (Monday night game) and the Chiefs having a few extra days after playing last Thursday? Not really. These teams know each other well. The start time is later in the afternoon instead of 10:00 a.m. for LA. The Chargers are also 6-7 ATS with a rest disadvantage in the Herbert era (since 2020), 5-5 ATS with Staley as coach since 2021, and the Chiefs are 12-14 ATS with a rest advantage in the Mahomes era (since 2018). The Chiefs are 2-4 ATS with a rest advantage since 2022. We’ll let this angle slide for this divisional game.
It will hopefully be another great matchup that goes down to the wire.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Chiefs +4.5 & Chargers +8.5 & Chargers +3.5 First Half Spread (+244 at FanDuel)
7. 49ers-Vikings: Captain Kirk on Monday Night Against a Great Team?
To close out the week on Monday night, we have a 3-leg parlay that will get the 49ers back on track after the first legitimate loss for Brock Purdy.
- Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted
- Alternate Spread: 49ers -2.5
McCaffrey left last week’s game with an injury. He did not practice on Thursday, but he is planning to play. Obviously, this is one you’ll have to monitor, but if McCaffrey is playing, he is scoring. He has scored a touchdown in 15 straight games and inching closer to the record. If he does not play, his leg will be voided in the parlay. But he is tough and will probably be out there against a favorable defense.
Speaking of defense, good luck to Kirk Cousins against this San Francisco unit as he does not have Justin Jefferson (hamstring) available again. The Minnesota offense only scored 13 points in Chicago last week without Jefferson. This is a much better defense with talent at every level, and they should be able to force Cousins into a back-breaking pick. He also is infamously 2-10 on Monday night games, including a 24-7 loss in Philadelphia last year where he threw 3 interceptions. He is outmanned in this one by a significant margin.
Finally, the 49ers should bounce back to win, so we’ll lower the spread to -2.5 just in case anything screwy happens and this game is close. But the 49ers won 17 of 18 games going into last week, and they would have won in Cleveland even after a bad day for Purdy if Jake Moody made a 41-yard field goal at the end.
Last week was an anomaly for both the 49ers losing ugly and the Vikings winning with little offense. Week 7 will correct that on Monday night.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD + Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted + 49ers -2.5 (+260 at Caesars Sportsbook)
