By Scott Kacsmar
The NFL has an amusing Week 6 schedule where the game with the teams with the best records is Lions-Buccaneers, which is not something people would have expected a month ago. We will also see if the Eagles and 49ers can improve to 6-0 as the only unbeaten teams left this year for your NFL picks.
In recapping Week 5’s NFL picks, the blowout between Dallas and San Francisco did not go our way at all with Dak Prescott taking an early seat after the 49ers embarrassed his team 42-10. The Bills in London sadly prevented our teaser parlay from hitting by losing to Jacksonville, but we did have success with De’Von Achane leading the Dolphins to another win after finding the end zone (+105), the Jets going over 23.5 points (+160), and a prescient pick of taking the Chiefs to win by 1-7 points as they won 27-20 in Minnesota (+203). Hitting those last two picks with the highest odds for the second week in a row helped the week finish at +0.68 units.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you the Bills should bounce back to beat the Giants as a 14.5-point favorite with -1100 odds. You can play the picks separately or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
1. 49ers-Browns: Brock Purdy for MVP?
The 49ers (5-0) are rolling and appear to be in line for a special season. They are only the sixth team in NFL history to score at least 30 points in each of their first five games. The last four teams to do that (2007 Patriots, 2011 Patriots, 2013 Broncos, and 2018 Rams) all reached the Super Bowl but lost without any of them scoring more than 17 points.
But we can worry about the playoffs later. This team has been on a tear, winning 17 of their last 18 games. The offense has been humming and doing better than ever with Brock Purdy at quarterback. Kyle Shanahan’s system has always produced great results, but Purdy is taking things to a new level with the talent around him never better. Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 14 straight games, and Brandon Aiyuk looks like a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver. Don’t forget Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, the latter scoring 3 touchdowns against Dallas.
The Browns are going to learn like Dallas did last week that beating up on bad offenses is not going to work when you play the 49ers. The Browns had some great stats to start this season after holding their first 3 opponents to single-digit first downs, something that hadn’t been done in the NFL since 2000. But in playing the Ravens in Week 4, the Browns allowed 28 points albeit half those points coming on short fields after turnovers by rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
But it could be P.J. Walker at quarterback if Deshaun Watson’s shoulder does not cooperate. No matter which quarterback plays, San Francisco’s top-ranked defense has a shot for turnovers that set up easy scores like we saw last week against Dallas.
But this game is about the excellence of Purdy leading this offense. He has led the 49ers to 30 points in 10-of-12 starts he’s finished. He is 13-0 when he throws at least 20 passes in a game, and he’s leading the NFL in QBR, passer rating, and has yet to throw an interception. Frankly, you would be wise to throw some MVP betting love for Purdy at +700 while you still can get that number.
This offense is the real deal, and they should score over 23.5 points in Cleveland to improve to 6-0 on the season.
Scott’s NFL Pick: 49ers Over 23.5 Points (+102 at FanDuel)
2. Colts-Jaguars: The Streak Continues
The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, a streak that has survived multiple coaching staffs and starting quarterbacks between the two teams. Not only has this losing streak continued, but some of the weirdest losses by the Colts have occurred down in Jacksonville.
- Remember when Andrew Luck lost a 6-0 game in 2018?
- In 2020, the Colts lost 27-20 in Jacksonville, and the Jaguars never won another game that season on their way to 1-15.
- To end the 2021 season, the Colts just needed a win in Jacksonville as a 15-point favorite and they lost 26-11 in the best game of Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season.
- Last year, the Colts lost 24-0 in Jacksonville in Week 2 before rebounding a few weeks later with a 34-27 win at home against their AFC South rival.
Speaking of rematches, this is one from Week 1 where the Jaguars won 31-21. The Colts were on the doorstep for a late touchdown before rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson was slow to get up on a run. He did not finish that game, and he is injured again (shoulder) and will miss at least a month.
Enter Gardner Minshew, the former Jacksonville quarterback, who is actually outplaying Richardson due to his experience in coach Shane Steichen’s offense and in general.
Steichen’s first 5 games as coach have all been decided by 1-11 points so far, so the Colts keep it close, and Minshew is good enough to make this game very competitive. The Jaguars lost 17-9 at home to Kansas City but beat Buffalo 25-20 in London last week in an impressive performance.
The Jaguars have had some bad fumbles this year, and the fumble return touchdown against the Colts in Week 1 was a bit flukey. But the Jaguars still needed a fourth-quarter comeback in that game. I think the Colts keep this one close again, but I would still trust the Jaguars to continue the home winning streak and beat the Colts by 1-13 points.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Jaguars by 1-13 Points (+120 at FanDuel)
3. Ravens-Titans: Slow Start in London
Shockingly, these old AFC Central rivals have not met since the Ravens won 20-13 in the 2020 AFC wild card playoffs. It usually is a grind when these teams meet as both want to run the ball and play great defense.
The Ravens had an unbelievable 17-10 loss in Pittsburgh last week, dropping 7 passes and not scoring on their final 9 drives despite so many good opportunities. Lamar Jackson is playing well, but it is hard to say the offense looks that much better under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. The injuries do not help as Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t giving the team anything yet at wide receiver.
The Titans have scored 27 points in their two home games, but this offense has not traveled well at all. The Titans have yet to crack 16 points on the road (0-3) this year. The receivers not named DeAndre Hopkins aren’t stepping up, and Derrick Henry does not look as dominant as he used to.
The other factor in question here is the questionable playing surface at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The Bills and Jaguars played there last week and it was an 11-7 game in the fourth quarter after the Bills had a lot of injuries on that field. The players were not happy about it.
With another game there early in the morning, neither team having much overseas experience, and the way their offenses have struggled at times this year, I think a slow start is the right play for this one.
Let’s take the under 20.5 first half points, a game prop that is 3-2 in each team’s games to this point. But when the Ravens and Titans meet, it usually is not a track meet.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Ravens-Titans Under 20.5 First Half Points (-120 at FanDuel)
4. Panthers-Dolphins: Carolina Scores, Dolphins Win
The 2023 Dolphins are rewriting the offensive record books as they now have the most yards (2,568) through 5 games of a season in NFL history. They would probably prefer to have the most points, but Miami is doing well in that regard too as the Dolphins sit at 4-1 and first place in the AFC East.
Rookie sensation De’Von Achane is out with an injury, but the Dolphins still have Raheem Mostert, another speedy back. They also still have Tyreek Hill, who has already gone over 150 yards in 3 games this season as he looks better than ever.
The Dolphins get to play the NFL’s only winless team as the Panthers (0-5) have yet to hold a fourth-quarter lead this season. Carolina has also lost 55 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter, so that’s another bad streak for this team.
But the good news is that rookie quarterback Bryce Young was able to lead some touchdown drives in Detroit last week and finally clear the 20-point mark in a game. In Week 4 against Minnesota, Young led his offense to 6 points despite having over 38 minutes in time of possession, something that had never been done before in the NFL.
Some more good news is that the Miami defense has not been very impressive this year. Every Miami opponent has scored at least 16 points, including the awful Patriots (17). The Giants got to 16 last week thanks to some interceptions off Tua Tagovailoa. But over 16.5 is a low bar for Carolina to clear. The Panthers have already done it in 3-of-5 games this year, and the Dolphins play a brand of football that should lead to more scoring.
Miami should absolutely win this game as a 14-point favorite, but the defense is still shaky enough to think the Panthers can do what they did last week and go over 16.5 points in a loss where they are trying to catch up. Parlay the Miami moneyline with the Panthers’ team scoring over.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Dolphins ML + Panthers Over 16.5 Points (+134 at FanDuel)
5. Vikings-Bears: Upset Pick
The Bears have not won back-to-back games since late 2021, but they are rolling with confidence now after Justin Fields threw 8 touchdowns in the last two games against the Broncos and Commanders. The Bears even hung on in Washington to end their 14-game losing streak. The only issue was they lost running back Khalil Herbert to an injury, but they have backups, Fields can run, and the Vikings are horrid against the pass anyway.
Fields gets a Minnesota defense that allows quarterbacks to complete 76.4% of their passes with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception. His defense gets a Minnesota offense that will not have superstar wideout Justin Jefferson, who has gone on injured reserve for a hamstring injury.
The Vikings are not without talent at wide receiver, but rookie Jordan Addison is no Jefferson, who was averaging 114 yards per game. Addison is also no D.J. Moore, who is playing incredible for Fields right now. He had almost all of Fields’ yardage in Washington, catching 8 passes for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns in the best game of his career.
Guess which defense has allowed the most catches (90) and yards (1,048) to wide receivers this season? Yep, it’s the Vikings.
The Vikings tied an NFL record with 8 comeback wins in the fourth quarter last year. But after coach Kevin O’Connell started his Minnesota career 11-0 in close games, the Vikings have gone 1-5 in close games since. Trusting Kirk Cousins on the road without a running game and without Jefferson is a tough call to make.
Given how many close games Minnesota is losing right now, it is tempting to tease this up to the Bears winning by 1-13 (+175 at FanDuel), but we’ll stick with the moneyline pick for the upset win to give Chicago its first winning streak in a long time.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Bears ML (+130 at FanDuel)
6. Cowboys-Chargers: Dallas Finally in a Close One?
Maybe the best game in Week 6 is Monday night between the Chargers and Cowboys. With the way Monday night games have been going this year, the scoring will be limited, but this feels like a potential shootout with Dallas trying to bounce back from a 42-10 loss in San Francisco and the Chargers using a bye week to prepare for this defense. Remember, Kellen Moore was Dallas’ offensive coordinator and is now calling plays for Justin Herbert and the guys.
Also, the Chargers are all but obligated to be stuck in a one-score game in the fourth quarter. All four games for the Chargers have been decided by 2-7 points this year, including a 36-34 loss at home to the Dolphins, a 27-24 overtime loss in Tennessee, and a 28-24 comeback win in Minnesota.
These teams last met in 2021 and the Cowboys won 20-17 on a late field goal, the type of ending Chargers fans are familiar with.
But Dallas is just one of 7 teams to play in only one close game this year. Even that game was decided by 12 points as the Cardinals shocked Dallas in a 28-16 final. The Cowboys had possession in the fourth quarter of a 21-16 game, which is why it counts as being close.
But everything else with Dallas has been a blowout. They waxed the Giants 40-0 on opening night. They hammered the Jets 30-10 a week later, they handed Bill Belichick the worst loss of his career (38-3), and then they were hammered 42-10 by San Francisco last week.
I say it’s time we get the close finish that you have come to expect from the Chargers in prime time. Parlay together both teams to not lose by more than 4 points for a good value bet on Monday night and be sure to sit back and enjoy the drama.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Cowboys +4.5 & Chargers +4.5 (+184 at FanDuel)
7. Commanders-Falcons: Another Close Falcons Victory at Home
Speaking of close games, the Falcons have played a trio of them at home this year. They have also won them all, which is usually not something we associate with Atlanta. No, we tend to think of the Falcons as a team that finds new ways to blow close games a la the Chargers in the AFC.
But we’ve already seen Atlanta break a 10-10 tie in the fourth quarter for a 24-10 win over Carolina in Week 1. The Falcons then came back from 12 points down in the fourth quarter for a 25-24 win over Green Bay. Last week, they played an entertaining game with the Texans, winning 21-19 on a field goal with no time left as Desmond Ridder led the third game-winning drive of the season for this team.
It was also Ridder’s best start in the NFL as he passed for 329 yards and finally got Kyle Pitts heavily involved at tight end. This is a quarterback who did not pass for more than 240 yards in his first 8 starts, so this is a good sign of progress.
Meanwhile, the Commanders just lost to Chicago and have allowed 33-plus points in 4 straight games. They have a few extra days to prepare for this one, and they won 19-13 in Atlanta last season, but this is a new year. Washington quarterback Sam Howell is on pace to take 99 sacks, an absurd number that would shatter the single-season record (76 by David Carr in 2002). This is how Atlanta can win the game as the rushing attack has not been special for Washington, so Howell should give a boost to the pass rush for Atlanta.
I think it will be another tight game, but we’ll give the home team the edge and for the Falcons to win by 1-7 points.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Falcons ML & Commanders +7.5 (+202 at FanDuel)
