By Scott Kacsmar
The NFL has a Week 5 schedule with a good Sunday lineup, starting with Bills-Jaguars in the morning, and concluding at night with a heavyweight fight in Cowboys-49ers. But most of our best NFL picks are going to be in the afternoon slate.
In recapping Week 4’s NFL picks, we were a strong 5-2 when you consider Josh Allen to throw 3 touchdowns (+270) and the Broncos to win by 1-6 points (+300) both hit. While those were ranked as our lowest confidence picks, we still have faith in every pick posted here or else it wouldn’t make the list.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you the Dolphins will beat the Giants with -590 odds. You can play the picks separately or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
1. Teasing the Bills, Ravens-Steelers, and Patriots-Saints
With so many things to bet on each week, don’t be afraid to get creative and try something like a teaser parlay. I’m 31-9 on 6-point teaser picks this year, including a couple of 9-1 weeks that were denied perfection by a Jacksonville game not hitting the teased over.
Here is a 3-leg parlay teased to 6 points:
- Bills -5.5 vs. Jaguars à Bills +0.5
- Ravens-Steelers Under 38 à Under 44
- Saints-Patriots Under 39.5 à Under 45.5
Buffalo has won each of its last 3 games by 28 points or better. The last team to do that was Buffalo in 2020, and the Bills won their next game, a wild card playoff game against the Colts, by 3 points (27-24).
The Jaguars are staying in London after beating the Falcons there last week. Maybe it’s an advantage, but the Bills are simply the better team on both sides of the ball and should win this game. Josh Allen has been fantastic during the winning streak, and the defense is arguably the best in the league. We’ll tease this to Bills +0.5, which is basically the same as taking them on the moneyline.
In Ravens-Steelers, you have to give Pittsburgh some respect at home after getting blown out last week. Mike Tomlin is 11-1-1 against a 4-point spread in games following a loss by 12 or more points, and Pittsburgh was embarrassed 30-6 in Houston last week.
This is why teasing the under is the better call as the Pittsburgh offense should still struggle regardless if Kenny Pickett or Mitch Trubisky starts at quarterback. The Ravens also are not a lock to score a bunch of points, and the final score was 20-19 the last time Lamar Jackson faced the Steelers in 2021. Last year’s games without Jackson ended 16-14 and 16-13. We’ll gladly take under 44 as even 23-20 would be considered on the very high end of a score for this matchup that is usually tight and low scoring.
Likewise, we’ll take the under 45.5 in New England as the Saints and Patriots should struggle to score. The Saints have not surpassed 20 points in any game this season, and Derek Carr should not have been playing with that shoulder injury last week when all he could really do was check the ball down.
The Patriots also have their own issues with Mac Jones coughing up two turnovers for touchdowns in a 38-3 loss to Dallas. The Saints have a proud defense that did get dinged up a bit against the Buccaneers last week, but it is hard to see the Patriots scoring more than 21 points without the help of any return touchdowns here.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Teaser Parlay (6 Points) – Bills +0.5, Ravens-Steelers Under 44, Saints-Patriots Under 45.5 (+140 at FanDuel)
2. Giants-Dolphins: Unleashing the New Toy in Miami
The last time rookie running back De’Von Achane played at home, he made a name for himself with 233 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns against Denver. That was quite the breakout performance after Achane was inactive in Week 1 and only had a 5-yard run in Week 2.
To prove he was no fluke, Achane scored 2 more touchdowns in Buffalo and hit a 55-yard run on his way to finishing with 8 carries for 101 yards. He may have done more damage on the ground if the Dolphins were not behind so much in the second half.
Achane went from playing 41% of the offensive snaps against Denver to 60% against Buffalo. His splits in targets and rushes were almost 100% even with Raheem Mostert last week, but Achane had a snaps advantage as he is proving capable of playing every down.
With Achane’s incredible speed, he is a threat to score on any play. Look for the Dolphins to bounce back in a big way at home and dominate a terrible Giants team that has already allowed 6 different players to score a rushing touchdown this season, including every lead back faced (Tony Pollard, James Conner, Christian McCaffrey, and Kenneth Walker).
Let’s go with the player performance double and take Achane to score another touchdown in a Miami victory for your NFL picks.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Player Performance Double – De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Miami ML (+105 at FanDuel)
3. Cowboys-49ers: Dak Prescott Feeling the Heat
Officially, my pick is for the 49ers to improve to 5-0 and beat Dallas for the third season in a row. The 49ers are rolling on both sides of the ball and Brock Purdy has not lost except for the game where he injured his elbow on the first drive.
With that game script in mind, Dak Prescott is going to have to throw his share of passes to catch up as he did in the last two postseasons against this tough defense. Prescott had 43 and 37 pass attempts in those playoff losses the last two years.
Prescott just threw 34 attempts in last week’s 35-point blowout win over the Patriots. The Cowboys are running a strange offense right now as Prescott’s average air yards per attempt is 5.4, the only quarterback under 6.0 through Week 4.
Shorter throws should ultimately lead to more throws. The Dallas defense is also great enough to not get destroyed by the 49ers in this matchup to the point where Dallas barely gets any possessions like what happened to the Cardinals last week when the 49ers scored 5 touchdowns on 6 possessions.
This should be a fun game, but my favorite player prop is for Dak to have to throw a lot.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
4. Cowboys-49ers: An Exciting Start?
Right back to this big game, nothing would be sweeter than to see both teams come out and score early. Dallas has fallen behind 10-0 and 3-0 in the first quarter in the playoffs the last two years to these 49ers, and it will have to establish something sooner to avoid that trap again.
Everyone knows about the vaunted San Francisco script for Kyle Shanahan’s opening drives, and the team has been dominant at scoring early in games. But so has Dallas this regular season with points in every first quarter so far.
This atmosphere should be a little different than a January playoff game between teams with little tape on each other. When you watch the Bills and Dolphins exchange touchdowns for five drives in a row last week in a big game that turned into a Buffalo blowout, you like to think we can see some offensive fireworks early in this one from both teams.
I know, picking anything involving high scoring in a prime-time game is tough right now with the duds we have been watching, but these are two of the best teams and offenses in the league. Even if it’s just 3-3 after a quarter, that will hit our prop with good value.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score in First Quarter (+148 at FanDuel)
5. Bengals-Cardinals: Arizona Drops Bengals to 1-4
Who imagined the Bengals and Cardinals would both be 1-3 going into Week 5? Even crazier is the fact that the Cardinals have played better football, blowing a pair of fourth-quarter leads to the Commanders and Giants or else they could be 3-1 right now.
Simply put, the Bengals are in the conversation for the worst offense in the NFL. Joe Burrow’s calf injury has made him a statue in the pocket, and defenses smell blood in the water when they face him. Tee Higgins also has a rib injury, so he will either be limited or not play at all this week, making things harder on the only offense that has not cracked 1,000 yards through four games this year. The Bengals are averaging 4.0 yards per play, tied with the Giants for the lowest in the league.
On the other side, the Cardinals are blowing away all expectations with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Dobbs rank No. 8 in QBR, and his offense has not committed a turnover in the last 3 games. The running game is very functional with James Conner, who is on pace for a career year, and Dobbs is also very effective as a runner, ranked No. 2 in rushing EPA at his position behind only Patrick Mahomes.
The Bengals have been pushed around by all the run-based teams they faced this year (Browns, Ravens, and Titans). The Cardinals fit that mold. They also have a defense that should limit any big plays and keep things in front of them.
The Cardinals already have the NFL’s biggest upset win this year when they beat the Cowboys in Week 3 by 12 points despite being a 12.5-point underdog. The Cardinals have scored at least 28 points in both home games this year. They were better against San Francisco than the 35-16 final suggests too.
Until the Bengals prove they can get back to the team we saw in 2021-22, they are not trustworthy right now. I’d rather back the Cardinals to win this game and drop the Bengals to 1-4 as they are playing better on both sides of the ball than Cincinnati.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Cardinals ML (+144 at FanDuel)
6. Jets-Broncos: Believe in Zach Wilson?
This pick is not so much believing in Zach Wilson as it is believing the Denver defense is one of the worst in NFL history. So far, the results are backing that up.
- Week 1: The Broncos allowed the Raiders to score 17 points on 6 possessions, and the final possession ran the clock out in a win. Las Vegas has been awful on offense in its other games.
- Week 2: The Commanders scored 35 points in Denver, and they even missed a pair of field goals in the game.
- Week 3: Miami had one of the best offensive performances in NFL history with 726 yards and 70 points, making Denver the only defense ever to allow 10 offensive touchdowns in a game.
- Week 4: While the Broncos eventually forced some turnovers to come back and win the game, how can a defense allow Justin Fields to complete 16-of-17 passes for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns in one half of a game?
Sean Payton had some problematic defenses in New Orleans that wasted years of Drew Brees’ prime, but he has never been around anything this terrible. Defensively, the Broncos currently rank dead last in points, yards, first downs, touchdown passes, rushing yards, percentage of drives allowing a score, and the lowest pressure rate in the league.
The 2023 Broncos are allowing 3.55 points per drive. To put that in context, the 2013 Broncos and their record-setting offense averaged 2.83 points per drive. The 2007 Patriots only averaged 3.19 points per drive.
This defense is a dream for a quarterback to play right now, and Zach Wilson is coming off a career-high 105.2 passer rating against the Chiefs. It was only the sixth time in 26 career games where Wilson threw multiple touchdown passes, but this Denver defense is historically terrible.
There is also a subplot at play where Payton publicly called out Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett for doing “one of the worst coaching jobs in history” when he was in Denver last year. Payton was not wrong, but it was shocking to see a coach attack another coach that way. This has made this matchup personal, and hopefully Hackett brings his best stuff to Denver.
You can find great value in Wilson throwing multiple touchdowns again (+195 at Bet365), and maybe the pipe dream of the week is both the Jets and Broncos scoring 30-plus points (+1500 at Bet365). But let’s not get too greedy and be content with the Jets scoring over 23.5 points in this one.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Jets Over 23.5 Points (+160 at Bet365)
7. Chiefs-Vikings: Another Close Kansas City Victory
The Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings are no stranger to close games:
- Since 2020, the Vikings have played a league-high 40 games (24-16 record) decided by 1-8 points, and the Chiefs rank third with 36 such games (27-9 record).
- No teams have more wins by one score since 2020 than the Chiefs (27) and Vikings (24).
- Since 2022, the Vikings and Chiefs are both 12-4 in games decided by 1-8 points, a total that only trails the Chargers (17).
- Seven of the 8 games involving these teams this year have been decided by 1-8 points.
- For Kansas City, 10 of its last 13 games have been decided by one possession.
- Since 2022, the Chiefs have 8 wins by 1-3 points, 3 more games than the next closest teams, including the Vikings (5).
Kansas City opened as a 5.5-point road favorite in this one, but the spread is already down to 3.5 points as we get closer to Sunday. The Vikings present a different challenge than most of Kansas City’s opponents as they have a great passing game and a prolific connection between Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. That combo can help keep the Vikings in any game.
Kansas City has been playing some great defense, but Zach Wilson got on a hot streak against them in the second and third quarters last week to help the Jets make a real game of it before losing 23-20.
We know the Vikings tied an NFL record with 8 fourth-quarter comeback wins last year and have been paying for it through regression ever since, going 0-4 in their recent opportunities for a comeback.
While Mahomes will want to atone for last week’s multi-interception game, this feels like the kind of game where the Chiefs have to pull it out late in a 28-24 type of final, adding to Minnesota’s reversal of fortune in close games this year.
Let’s go with the Chiefs on the moneyline combined with Vikings +7.5, which is basically saying Chiefs win by 1-7 points. But most sportsbooks only offer ranges like 1-6 points, so we’ll take some added insurance that the Chiefs could be leading by a full touchdown and extra point late.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Chiefs ML + Vikings +7.5 (+203 at FanDuel)
