By Scott Kacsmar
The NFL has a Week 16 schedule that is loaded with island games on Saturday and Monday, including an incredible matchup on Monday night between the Ravens and 49ers that we have a parlay for. We are also looking at NFL picks for Raiders-Chiefs, Bills-Chargers, Lions-Vikings, Bengals-Steelers, and if Dallas can show up on the road this week in Miami in another big game.
In recapping our Week 15 NFL picks, we were ready to call it a solid week with successful parlays on Vikings-Bengals (+177) and Commanders-Rams (+268). We just needed the Eagles to bring it home Monday night with the win after Jalen Hurts easily scored another touchdown (and a second), but we know how that went, allowing Drew Lock to dive 92 yards for the winning touchdown. So, that was a bummer to end the week, one that saw a miserable offensive game from Dallas in Buffalo, a bad Saturday for the road teams, and our upset pick of the Giants was nowhere close.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to pick a 10-point favorite to win. You can play the picks separately or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
1. Bills-Chargers: Power Surge in LA
We can debate if Buffalo made the right decision to fire offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after the Denver loss, but there is no denying that the offense has scored over 30 points in 3-of-4 games, and they only have 3 turnovers.
Getting running back James Cook more involved has also been a big success. Cook had the best game of his career against Dallas in the rain last week with 179 rushing yards and a nice touchdown catch too. He has scored 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games after scoring 2 touchdowns in the first 10 games this season.
Josh Allen didn’t have to do much last week when he didn’t even throw for 100 yards, but he gets one of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Chargers, a defense that has already been destroyed at home this year by the Dolphins (36 points) and Lions (41 points).
Have we mentioned the Chargers looked like they quit on coach Brandon Staley last week? They couldn’t hold onto the ball in Vegas and allowed 63 points to an offense led by rookie Aidan O’Connell. That led to Staley’s firing the next day and the Chargers still are without Justin Herbert after he fractured his finger.
The Bills love blowing teams out and they have scored 4 touchdowns on both the Eagles and Cowboys, two much better teams than the Chargers, in the last month. We like for Buffalo to run it up and score over 3.5 touchdowns in this one too as they continue their playoff push.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Bills Over 3.5 Total Touchdowns (+124 at FanDuel)
2. Lions-Vikings: NFC North Clinching Time?
The Detroit Lions can wrap up the NFC North before Christmas. That sounds hard to believe, but the Lions have been the best team in the division all year and we have a 3-leg parlay that celebrates the success they’ve had this year on offense:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 70+ Receiving Yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs 3+ Receptions
- Sam LaPorta 25+ Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been proof that you can find a No. 1 receiver in the 4th round sometimes. He has been excellent this season and incredibly consistent with at least 70 yards in 10-of-13 games played. The Vikings do not have a corner who can shut him down and the Lions do a great job of scheming him open every week.
The Vikings blitz more than any defense in the league and also drop 8 into coverage more than any defense, a true sign of defensive coordinator Brian Flores taking a unique approach from the rest of the league. But as we saw last week with Jake Browning completing 3 passes to both of his running backs, there should be plenty of opportunities in the passing game for Jared Goff to find his backs. Jahmyr Gibbs should be able to grab 3 balls in this one as he is the better receiving back between him and David Montgomery.
Finally, Sam LaPorta has had one of the best rookie seasons ever by a tight end, and he had 3 touchdowns last week against Denver. LaPorta has had at least 36 yards in every game this season except for the pair of games against the Bears, who must have had some secret sauce on how to deal with him.
We won’t say for sure if the Lions win this game and win the division title, but another productive offensive outing led by these recent draft hits is a good play this weekend.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Amon-Ra St. Brown 70+ Receiving Yards & Jahmyr Gibbs 3+ Receptions & Sam LaPorta 25+ Receiving Yards (+198 at FanDuel)
3. Raiders-Chiefs: Mahomes Buys His Receivers Stick’Em for Christmas
We have a 3-leg parlay for Monday that is favorable to the Chiefs having another solid offensive showing at home against the Raiders:
- Chiefs Over 25.5 Points
- Rashee Rice 50+ Receiving Yards
- Travis Kelce 5+ Receptions
Patrick Mahomes bought his offensive linemen custom golf carts. We can only hope he bought his receivers’ hand warmers, manicures, and anything else to get their hands to work for him. The league-high in drops have been brutal this year, and it happened again with Kadarius Toney last week turning a catch into an interception in New England.
But the Chiefs have played a single game in 2022 and 2023 where neither team turned the ball over, and both times it was the Raiders. The Chiefs were clean with the ball in Week 12 this year when they won 31-17 in Vegas.
Mahomes is 10-1 against the Raiders and the Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in every game. We like them to hit their team over (25.5 points) in this one as well. The other good sign in their previous win over the Raiders was the way they used their best receivers with Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce both going over 90 yards.
We’ll give Rice, who has been hot with over 50 yards in 7-of-9 games, at least 50 yards in this game and another 5-catch game for Kelce, who has hit that milestone in 10-of-13 games this year. We almost want to give Travis a touchdown for Christmas too, but that connection hasn’t looked so hot in the red zone lately. Maybe the Chiefs just keep it simple and give the ball to Isiah Pacheco, their top running back who is expected to return from injury after missing the last two games.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Chiefs Over 25.5 Points & Rashee Rice 50+ Receiving Yards & Travis Kelce 5+ Receptions (+247 at FanDuel)
4. Cowboys-Dolphins: The Paper Tiger Bowl?
Respect the talent on these teams, but neither can shake the fact that they haven’t done a good job in games against other contenders this year. They both get a chance to notch a quality win this week, and you may have to give Miami the edge thanks to playing at home as Dallas just hasn’t been the same on the road.
But the good news is the weather should be much nicer this week than it was in Buffalo last week when Dallas looked a little shellshocked at how well the Bills ran the ball with James Cook. We have a 4-leg parlay that acknowledges that performance while also expecting much better production from the Dallas passing game this week:
- Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Dak Prescott 225+ Passing Yards
- Jake Ferguson 25+ Receiving Yards
- Over 39.5 Points
Think the Cowboys are going to focus on run defense this week after what happened in Buffalo? But Raheem Mostert is almost inevitable in this offense. The Jets held him to 42 yards on 15 carries last week and he still scored 2 touchdowns to give him 20 on the year. Just as Jalen Hurts is automatic at the goal line in Philadelphia, the Dolphins go to Mostert for the short touchdowns this year. Put him in the books for another.
As for Dallas, Dak Prescott went from MVP favorite to No. 3 at best after a dud in Buffalo where he was fortunate to break 100 passing yards. It didn’t happen until the fourth quarter when it was 31-3. But Prescott has bounced back well in Dallas after a loss. The last 7 times he’s lost a game, Prescott has passed for over 260 yards the next week. We’ll go even a step lower to 225-plus yards in this one just as some insurance for the road Cowboys not being as good as the home Cowboys.
Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson has been a big help in the second half of the season. He has gone over 25 yards in 8 straight games, and we like that streak to continue as the Dolphins do have some solid corners (Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard) to deal with CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks have been hit or miss as a deep threat. It’s Ferguson who becomes that next reliable target for Dak.
Finally, if these teams play even moderately well, and it looks like Tyreek Hill is back for Miami, this game should have no problem clearing 40 points on the scoreboard. We’ve seen them do that themselves in a handful of games this year.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Dak Prescott 225+ Passing Yards & Jake Ferguson 25+ Receiving Yards & Over 39.5 Points (+223 at FanDuel)
5. Bengals-Steelers: Rudolph the Third-String QB
Another Backup QB Bowl in Pittsburgh as Jake Browning gets another shot at the Steelers, the team he lost his first start to. The Steelers are going with third-stringer Mason Rudolph, who has not started a game since 2021. We have a 3-leg parlay that expects these backups to move the ball again:
- Jake Browning 200+ Passing Yards
- Tee Higgins Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
- Pat Freiermuth Over 2.5 Receptions
Count me in on the Bengals having something with Browning in this offense. He makes a lot of good decisions, he’s fairly accurate, he gives his playmakers chances, and he puts up points while doing a good enough job protecting the ball. Basically, he’s better at the position than any quarterback Pittsburgh has right now.
Browning passed for 227 yards in his first start against the Steelers, and he has only improved, throwing for at least 275 yards in the last 3 games. Granted, Browning got lucky with a few deflected completions in that first Pittsburgh game, and he won’t have Ja’Marr Chase available for this one.
But the Pittsburgh defense is struggling and very injured at safety with Minkah Fitzpatrick out and Damontae Kazee suspended for the season. Tee Higgins, fresh off an incredible game against Minnesota, can absolutely make up for the loss of Chase and dominate this defense. He’s had over 100 yards in previous trips to Pittsburgh in 2020 and 2022. He is arguably the best No. 2 receiver in the league. Look for him to go over 60.5 receiving yards.
Finally, we’re not going to shy away from Pittsburgh starting Mason Rudolph. He has better career numbers than Kenny Pickett does. He still has 3 more touchdown passes than Pickett (16 vs. 13) despite several hundred fewer attempts.
But the receiver we want to target for Pittsburgh is tight end Pat Freiermuth. There is too much noise right now with George Pickens’ effort level. We just want the tight end to get 3 catches after he had the game of his career against Cincinnati a month ago with 9 catches for 120 yards. The Bengals are struggling against tight ends, and Freiermuth needs to be involved. He had 5 catches in a 2021 game against Detroit that Rudolph started.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jake Browning 200+ Passing Yards & Tee Higgins Over 60.5 Receiving Yards & Pat Freiermuth Over 2.5 Receptions (+240 at FanDuel)
6. Giants-Eagles: Getting Eagles Back on Track, Take Two
The Eagles are getting to their breaking point after a 3-game losing streak, but this feels like a situation that is a combination of getting away with sloppy play earlier in the year, regressing significantly on defense, playing a gauntlet of playoff teams, and weird things like Jalen Hurts having a flu-type game on Monday night.
The way to heal the Eagles is to give them a home game against a Giants team they smashed three times last year and are a 13.5-point favorite for this week. It could certainly backfire as we’ve seen this team struggle twice with Sam Howell and the Commanders, but the Giants are still coached by Brian Daboll and only scored 6 points in New Orleans last week.
Tommy DeVito has done some good things as an undrafted rookie quarterback, but he has also taken a sack on over 17% of his plays behind that awful offensive line. If there is a game where the Eagles can look dominant on defense and win by a comfortable margin, it has to be this one.
That is why we have a sneaky play for this game as we have Boston Scott scoring a touchdown anytime in the second half. Scott is the Giant Killer, and he has scored a touchdown in all nine games against the Giants in his career. Incredibly, 11-of-20 touchdowns in Scott’s career (playoffs included) have been against the Giants.
Nine of those 11 touchdowns have come in the second half of games, which is why our pick is looking at that part of the game as he has been a deep backup this year, only getting 20 touches all season and never playing more than 10 offensive snaps in any game.
But if the Eagles are rolling on Monday and feeling good at home on Christmas, there would be nothing more fitting than bringing in the Giant Killer to gobble up another touchdown against the team he loves to play the most.
You could just play him to score a touchdown at any time (+290 at FanDuel), but we’ll go with the bigger reward from banking on it to come after halftime with the Eagles already leading on their way to ending this losing streak.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Boston Scott Anytime 2nd Half Touchdown Scorer (+500 at FanDuel)
7. Ravens-49ers: Super Bowl Preview?
We rarely get a matchup like this so late in the season, but the current No. 1 seeds in each conference will meet Monday night in San Francisco. We have a 4-leg parlay that is going to skirt by the final on the scoreboard and focus on the big-name players doing big-time things on the ground in what should be a physical game:
- Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Christian McCaffrey Over 78.5 Rushing Yards
- Lamar Jackson 50+ Rushing Yards
Does this lean towards a San Francisco win? Absolutely. The 49ers are a 5.5-point home favorite and have won every game this season except for one by at least 12 points. They dominate teams and no one has been able to stay close to them since they got healthy over the bye week.
Right now, Deebo Samuel is red hot with 7 touchdowns over his last 3 games, and he has scored in 4 straight games overall. They are finding every way possible to get him the ball, including from in close with rushing scores. He usually delivers in marquee games like this and should keep his hot streak going.
Christian McCaffrey has been on a heater ever since he was traded to San Francisco last year. While he was held out of the end zone a couple of weeks ago, he came back and scored 3 touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. The Ravens have only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns this year, but McCaffrey can score in a variety of ways just like Samuel, and he has a career-high 7 touchdown catches this year too.
Since we like the 49ers to win the game, McCaffrey’s rushing totals can be inflated by playing with the lead in this one. He has only been held under 78 yards in 4 games this season, including all 3 losses where the 49ers only scored 17 points. He is averaging a career-high 92.3 rushing yards per game this season.
Both teams are excellent at controlling games and playing with leads, so it will be interesting to see who can dictate things. The 49ers being the home favorite and playing so well makes us think they’ll be in control. Since the Ravens are usually leading, they don’t face many rushing attempts this year, but they are only ranked 21st in yards per carry allowed. That is another reason we think McCaffrey, who has his own case for awards like MVP and Offensive Player of the Year, has a big night.
But we are not blanking the Ravens in our parlay. We have Lamar Jackson rushing for at least 50 yards, something he has done in 7-of-14 games this year, so it looks like a coin flip. But we’re talking about a big game against an elite defense, and the Ravens are down some weapons in tight end Mark Andrews and explosive running back Keaton Mitchell (torn ACL). Look for Jackson to take things into his own hands more and run enough to clear 50 yards. He could even go well above that number as he rushed for over 100 yards when these teams last met in 2019, and he rushed for 97 yards in Jacksonville last Sunday night.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Christian McCaffrey Over 78.5 Rushing Yards & Lamar Jackson 50+ Rushing Yards (+742 at FanDuel)
