By Scott Kacsmar
The NFL has a Week 11 schedule that will build with anticipation for Monday night when the Eagles and Chiefs meet in an epic Super Bowl rematch. But there are also some good games before that for NFL picks with Steelers-Browns, Chargers-Packers, Cardinals-Texans, and we will see if Joshua Dobbs can do it again for the Vikings in Denver on Sunday night.
In recapping our Week 10 NFL picks, it was a very good week that was almost incredible. We had hits on the under in Jacksonville (-110), the high-scoring Chargers-Lions game (+102), a Pittsburgh parlay (+235), and those island game unders were money once again (+265). But the Ravens blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter to sink our +157 parlay, and the Bills had 12 men on the field for the decisive field goal against Denver in the wildest Monday night game of the season.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you Dallas beating the Panthers as a 10.5-point favorite is a good pick. You can play the picks separately or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
1. Bears-Lions: David Montgomery Revenge Game
I would love this pick even if David Montgomery never played for the Chicago Bears. But in his first game against his former team, the Lions have to give him some good touchdown opportunities, right? Montgomery has already scored in 5-of-6 games he played in this season, only missing in the Tampa Bay game where he was injured.
Last week, the Lions used rookie Jahmyr Gibbs twice at the 1-yard line for the short touchdowns we are used to seeing Montgomery get for this team. But he also scored on a 75-yard touchdown run. He will get his share of touches in this one for sure, and the Lions should run it up on a team they scored 31 and 41 points against last season.
Speaking of last season, the last time Justin Fields played Detroit in Week 17 last year, he had 30 net passing yards on 28 dropbacks in a 41-10 loss. Yeah, do not be worried that he is expected to make his return to the starting quarterback job. The Lions should win this game and Montgomery should find the end zone at least once. Tease it to two touchdowns if you want a big hit.
Scott’s NFL Pick: David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Lions ML (-105 at FanDuel)
2. Cowboys-Panthers: Welcome Back to the End Zone, Tony Pollard
A little less confident in this one than David Montgomery and the Lions, but we have Tony Pollard finding the end zone for the first time since Week 1 when he scored twice against the Giants. Pollard has 148 touches since, and the closest he has been to the end zone was a 2-point conversion way back in Week 2.
The Cowboys have no shortage of offensive touchdowns with 25 this year, but they just have been spread around to everyone else instead of the primary running back. Pollard also hasn’t hit some of the big plays he had last season when he scored 12 touchdowns. His longest run this year is 31 yards.
The other part to like here is the Carolina defense that has allowed 26.9 points per game (30th in NFL). The Panthers have allowed 11 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns (most in NFL).
With the Cowboys publicly acknowledging how just about everyone but Pollard scored a touchdown against the Giants last week, let’s look for them to get a short one to their best back in what should be another easy win for a Dallas team that has dominated the scrubs this year.
Well, they did lose as a 13-point favorite to 1-win Arizona, so this would not be the biggest upset of the year. But we are confident that won’t happen again in this matchup as rookie Bryce Young is clearly no Joshua Dobbs.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Cowboys ML (+105 at FanDuel)
3. The “You Guys Can’t Score” Teaser (PIT-CLE, NYG-WAS, NYJ-BUF)
We only tried one teaser earlier this season, and Buffalo (+0.5) killed it with a 25-20 loss in London to the Jaguars. But with so many tempting unders to choose from, we decided to try another 6-point teaser with a 3-leg parlay:
- Steelers at Browns – Under 32.5 teased to 38.5
- Giants at Commanders – Under 36.5 teased to 42.5
- Jets at Bills – Under 40 teased to 46
Steelers-Browns: The 32.5 is one of the lowest lines in the last 15 years in the NFL. This comes on the heels of finding out Deshaun Watson had season-ending shoulder surgery and rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start. He lost 28-3 in his only start against Baltimore, but Pittsburgh is not going to score 28 points. Pittsburgh will be fortunate to score 16 as the offense was carried by the defense returning two turnovers for touchdowns in Week 2’s 26-22 win over the Browns. This will be an ugly AFC North football game and that original under might even hit.
Giants-Commanders: Speaking of ugly games, these teams met in Week 7 and produced 21 total points on 27 possessions. Gross. The Commanders have not surpassed 20 points in their last three games against Washington, and New York’s heavy blitzing style should work well against Sam Howell, who takes a lot of sacks. The Giants are still going with rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito, but the Giants have not topped 17 points since Week 2 in Arizona, which looks like a fluke now. This game ending 24-17 would be a miracle for good offense, and that would still hit the teased under of 42.5.
Jets-Bills: The Jets have not found the end zone in the last two games, and they didn’t look like they would in Week 1 against Buffalo before a miracle touchdown catch by Garrett Wilson followed by a punt return touchdown in overtime in a 22-16 win. The Bills fired their offensive coordinator this week as that side of the ball has been the problem. The defense is fine and should hold Zach Wilson down on the scoreboard again. But the Buffalo offense is a mixed bag these days, and Robert Saleh’s defense has had some success at limiting Josh Allen. We’re more than content with under 46 hitting here.
Scott’s NFL Pick: 3-Leg Teaser (6 Points) – Steelers-Browns Under 38.5 & Giants-Commanders Under 42.5 & Jets-Bills Under 46 (+140 at FanDuel)
4. Cardinals-Texans: Kyler Murray vs. C.J. Stroud
If you want a fun game to watch this Sunday, Arizona in Houston could be the one to watch. Kyler Murray made his return after 11 months of recovering from his torn ACL, and he led Arizona to an exciting 25-23 win over Atlanta. C.J. Stroud had another huge game with over 350 yards in leading an upset in Cincinnati.
We have a 3-leg parlay for what could be another shootout for Houston:
- C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Kyler Murray Over 238.5 Passing Yards
- Cardinals +10.5
Stroud only threw 1 touchdown pass in Cincinnati last week, but that’s because he had a rushing score and turned the ball over 3 times. He led a Houston attack that had over 540 yards and marched up and down the field all day. He plays better at home where he’s had over 1.5 passing touchdowns in all 4 starts, including a 5-touchdown game against Tampa Bay in his last home game. He also is expected to have his full complement of wide receivers for the first time since opening day, and Noah Brown has been over 150 yards in each of the last two games despite starting the season as a WR4 at best. Stroud is rolling right now.
But despite Stroud’s dominance in the last two games, Houston only beat the Buccaneers 39-37 and they needed a last-second field goal to knock off the Bengals 30-27. That’s two very close wins by a combined 5 points.
Look for Arizona to keep this close and not lose by double digits. Murray hadn’t played in 11 months before last week, and he still found a way to throw for 249 yards on 32 passes (7.8 YPA) last week against Atlanta. Houston’s defense gave up big passing numbers to Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield the last two games, and this could be another shootout with Murray and Arizona.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Kyler Murray Over 238.5 Passing Yards & Cardinals +10.5 (+280 at Caesars Sportsbook)
5. Raiders-Dolphins: Tyreek Hill Bounces Back, Raiders Start Scoring
We have a little 2-leg parlay for this game in Miami where the Dolphins are a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 46.5 points.
- Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Raiders Over 16.5 Points
Miami is back from a bye week after that incredibly disappointing 21-14 loss in Germany to the Chiefs. Tyreek Hill badly wanted to score a touchdown against his former team, and he ended up scoring one for them on a fumble return before halftime that was the key play of the game.
Look for Hill to bounce back against a mediocre Vegas defense in this one. Hill has scored a touchdown in 7-of-9 games this season. The Raiders may be 2-0 since firing Josh McDaniels, but they were able to beat up on the MetLife Stadium teams (Jets and Giants), which are not good litmus tests.
The Dolphins are going to score a fair amount in this game since it’s the elite teams that give them problems. But the Miami defense is also not great, and every team that’s played the Dolphins has scored at least 16 points this year. Even the Giants scored 16, and yes, it took some interceptions by Tua Tagovailoa, including a pick-six, to get them to 16.
But the Raiders just scored 16 on a very tough Jets defense, so getting at least 17 in Miami in what could be a little shootout seems perfectly reasonable to me.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Raiders Over 16.5 Points (+180 at FanDuel)
6. Chargers-Packers: Back to Their Old Tricks
The Chargers were back on brand last week against Detroit. That means a high-scoring game where they never had a lead despite scoring 38 points, and they lost on the final play of the game. That’s the Chargers we are used to seeing. Not the team that was dominating on defense against the lowly Bears and Jets.
The Packers are struggling right now with a 3-6 record, but we have a little 3-leg parlay to get them right this week offensively:
- Chargers +8.5
- Packers +8.5
- Packers Over 20.5 Points
First, we see it as another close game decided by 1-8 points either way. Two-thirds of the Chargers’ games this year have been decided by one score, and 5-of-9 games for Green Bay have been the same. Oddly enough, the last three games at Lambeau Field have all been decided by 14-plus points, but this is a game involving the Chargers, so we are confident in Brandon Staley’s defense bringing out the best from Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love.
The Packers have not scored 21 points in the last seven games, the longest streak in Green Bay since a 10-game streak back in 1990-91, or the period known as before Brett Favre. We think the streak ends in this one as the Chargers have problems with defending wide receivers, and Green Bay was close to figuring things out in Pittsburgh last week where Love didn’t throw a pick until the final minutes, and he only took 1 sack on the road against T.J. Watt and company.
If you wanted an alternative to this play, you could go Green Bay +3 and over 43.5 points for a +220 hit on a 2-leg parlay. But we’ll just stick with the one-score game and Green Bay finally scoring 21 points again.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Chargers +8.5 & Packers +8.5 & Packers Over 20.5 Points (+178 at FanDuel)
7. Eagles-Chiefs: Super Parlay for Super Bowl Rematch
After we wrote about the historic Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs this week, you knew we’d have something cooked up for this big game on Monday night. Here is our 4-leg parlay:
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Under 45.5 Points
- Chiefs ML
- Eagles +14.5
Kelce has been quiet the last two games with 72 yards and no touchdowns. But if you’ve been following the headlines, then you know that man is in love with Taylor Swift, and she will be at the game. Is there any doubt he is scoring a touchdown? He scored the first one for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl against the Eagles too. Even better, he’s about the only receiver you can trust to score a touchdown for the Chiefs this year. He’s getting the job done Monday night.
But Monday night has been awful for offense as the under is now 11-1 this year. It barely hit last week in Broncos-Bills, but it still hit again. These teams have played 42-30 and 38-35 games the last two years, but forget about the past. Prime time football is the dead zone for scoring in 2023, and the Chiefs are also playing a much different brand of football this year.
We’ve already seen the Chiefs win 19-8 in prime time against Denver. We’ve seen them go to Jacksonville and win an ugly 17-9 game. The hyped game in Germany against Miami ended 21-14 with a defensive touchdown scored. The Chiefs have not had 300 yards of offense or any points after halftime in back-to-back games, something the team has not done since 2016 (Alex Smith era). These are the defensive-led Chiefs right now, and they have a defense that can limit the Eagles on the scoreboard. We’ve seen Philadelphia held to a season-low 14 points against the Jets already. The Chiefs may not do that, but a score like 23-20 should not shock anyone if you’ve been following this season closely.
The Chiefs lack receiver depth, and the Eagles are not running the ball as consistently as 2022, and they rely a little too much on A.J. Brown. Meanwhile, tight end Dallas Goedert had surgery for a fractured forearm and he is out for this game. DeVonta Smith has not been as productive as he was last year in this offense.
This could still be a classic, close game. Look at Kansas City’s 24-20 loss at home to Buffalo last regular season, or the Chiefs’ 23-20 win over Cincinnati in the AFC Championship Game. Those were great games that finished with under 45.5 points. Hell, even the most hyped regular-season game of the 21st century ended 24-20 when the 2007 Patriots beat the Colts when they were both undefeated in November.
This just won’t be 38-35 again. But we do like the Chiefs to win again as the defense can be trusted to step up, and Andy Reid usually cooks up something great after a bye week. The Eagles had their bye as well, but that was the case in the Super Bowl too. We’ll trust the team with the better coach, quarterback, defense, and home-field advantage to win, and the Eagles will not get blown out.
Hopefully this one will live up to the hype. At least the Dolphins aren’t involved this time.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Under 45.5 Points & Chiefs ML & Eagles +14.5 (+663 at FanDuel)
