By Scott Kacsmar
The NFL playoffs move into the pivotal divisional round, bringing the No. 1 seeds into the fold after their bye week. The spreads are big (9.5) for those games, but C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love looked great last week and could make the Ravens and 49ers sweat a bit this Saturday. The Sunday games figure to have closer battles between the Buccaneers-Lions and another Chiefs-Bills game that is in Buffalo this time. We have multiple NFL picks for those games below.
In recapping our wild card picks, Saturday was a perfect start with parlays hitting for Browns-Texans (+194) and Dolphins-Chiefs (+150). But Sunday ended up being a mess with none of the big receivers scoring (CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Kupp, Amon-Ra St. Brown) thanks to those hat tricks by Aaron Jones and Jake Ferguson. In fact, there wasn’t a single touchdown after halftime in Rams-Lions. Our Steelers-Bills picks were made before the game was moved, which ended up hurting Pittsburgh as the running backs weren’t much of a factor. But we did rebound with the under hitting in Tampa Bay, ending the season with unders going 15-5 on Monday nights.
Be sure to check out our big AFC divisional round preview. The NFC games are covered here.
What should we look for this week? There has not been a lead change this postseason since the 12:00 mark of the second quarter in Houston, meaning we’ve gone 22 straight quarters without a lead change. Let’s hope for the games to be more competitive and back-and-forth this week. Also, home teams were 5-1 last week with only Dallas losing. Since 2005, at least one home team has lost in the divisional round in every season except for 2015 and 2018.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to pick a 10-point favorite to win. You can play the picks separately or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
1. Packers-49ers: Jordan Love vs. Brock Purdy
We are going to start with a game prop for both teams to score 20 points in San Francisco. This is already falling in line with our search for more lead changes and tighter games in the fourth quarter this week.
Only 3 San Francisco games this season have seen both teams score 20 points, and that includes Week 18 against the Rams when both teams played backups a lot. That doesn’t bode well for our pick, but guess what happened in 2022? The 49ers also had 3 games where both teams scored 20 points going into the playoffs, and their wild-card game against Seattle ended 41-23. Success.
With this game, you have to consider that the Packers are playing elite offense right now and just played a Dallas team that was supposed to be great on both sides of the ball in a 48-32 game.
Green Bay is rolling with over 400 yards of offense in 3 straight games after never doing that once in Weeks 1-16. The Packers have their 5 highest-scoring games of the season on the road this year. They also scored at least 20 points at home against playoff teams like the Chiefs (27), Lions (20), Rams (20), and Buccaneers (20).
The 49ers should be the safer side of this one. They are just the 33rd team since 1978 to score at least 17 points in every game in a season, and they join the 2022 Chiefs (last year’s champs) as the only teams to do it in a 17-game season. The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in every win this year.
So, if you still like San Francisco to win as a 9.5-point home favorite, their chances of scoring well over 20 are pretty good. Let’s not forget Green Bay was the defense that gave up a 300-yard passing game and 30 points to the Carolina Panthers in December.
But trust in Love and LaFleur is growing, and they should be able to get to 20 points as well.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Packers & 49ers Both Score 20 Points (-108 at FanDuel)
2. Chiefs-Bills: Patrick Mahomes Embraces First Road Playoff Start
Patrick Mahomes’ 16th playoff start will be the first time he plays a road game in his career. We may never see that again, and we may never see another one quite like Mahomes.
The idea this week is that he is going to struggle on the road, but the truth is his numbers are better across the board on the road than they are at home in his career. This has been consistent since 2018 too.
In fact, if you broke down his last 6 seasons into home and away splits and treated them as 12 separate seasons, his top 6 seasons in passing yards per game would all be his road seasons:
- 2018 Away – 332.4
- 2020 Away – 321.1
- 2021 Away – 321.1
- 2022 Away – 304.0
- 2019 Away – 296.8
- 2023 Away – 263.1
- 2022 Home – 251.4
- 2018 Home – 243.8
- 2020 Home – 241.2
- 2023 Home – 234.1
- 2019 Home – 207.1
- 2021 Home – 189.2
Even in his down season in 2023, Mahomes is still averaging 263.1 passing yards per game on the road. With Buffalo’s defense having a lot of injuries at safety and linebacker, this could be an ideal game for Mahomes and Travis Kelce to embrace their road warrior status and make the most of this rare opportunity.
Plus, remember how visibly pissed Mahomes was in Week 14 after the officials flagged that go-ahead touchdown on the Kelce lateral to Kadarius Toney for offensive offsides? It was the right call, but Mahomes was beside himself that day. This is a rivalry game and I have to believe he’s going to come out and play his best.
Does that necessarily mean the Chiefs win? No. Their mistakes (drops, fumbles, and penalties) have doomed them in most big games this year. But if Mason Rudolph can go into Buffalo last week for Pittsburgh and throw for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns, I must believe the best quarterback in the game has over 253.5 yards and 2 touchdowns in him this week.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Patrick Mahomes Over 253.5 Passing Yards (+142 at FanDuel)
3. C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love Aren’t Getting Blown Out by No. 1 Seeds Parlay
Next, we have a 4-leg parlay for Saturday’s action with the thought that C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love will continue last week’s success while not getting blown out on the road against the No. 1 seeds, both of which rested key starters in Week 18 and could come out a little rusty.
- Texans +17.5
- C.J. Stroud 200+ Passing Yards
- Packers +17.5
- Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
There is a purpose behind each number. The Texans lost by 16 points (25-9) in Week 1 in Baltimore, so we are moving it up to 17.5 to account for that possibility of a 3-score loss as the Ravens have blown out several playoff teams already this season. But the Texans have grown under DeMeco Ryans since Week 1 and should do better instead of worse in this matchup. They’ve already won back-to-back elimination games to get here.
Stroud is still the catalyst to their success, and while he had a rough debut in Week 1, he didn’t throw any interceptions on 44 attempts, and he finished with 242 passing yards. Stroud has passed for at least 200 yards in all but 3 games this season, including a game with 199 yards and the one he left early with a concussion against the Jets.
Switching gears to the night game in San Francisco. Even in his worst playoff loss, Packers coach Matt LaFleur lost 37-20 to the 49ers in the 2019 NFC Championship Game, so he didn’t lose by more than 17 points. Green Bay’s largest margin of defeat in 2022 was also 17 points against the Jets. With Jordan Love this year, the Packers’ largest margin of defeat was 14 points, done 3 times in home games.
The 49ers did win 11 games by at least 12 points this year, which is tied for the second-most games in a season in NFL history. They do win big, but the Packers are playing too well offensively right now to think they can blow them out by more than 17 this week.
Love has thrown multiple touchdowns in 9 of his last 10 games too. It would be disappointing if he didn’t continue that hot stretch of play in this game.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Texans +17.5 & C.J. Stroud 200+ Passing Yards & Packers +17.5 & Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+235 at FanDuel)
4. Buccaneers-Lions: Passing Clinic
We have a 5-leg parlay for the potential passing shootout between Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield in Detroit, which does have a dome as one reporter learned the hard way this week:
- Baker Mayfield 2+ Passing Touchdowns
- Mike Evans 50+ Receiving Yards
- Jared Goff 250+ Passing Yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 70+ Receiving Yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 6+ Receptions
Baker Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdowns in 7-of-9 road games this season. He had 3 touchdowns against Philadelphia last week, and while the 2023 Eagles are a poor excuse for a playoff secondary, the 2023 Lions are not exactly a Super Bowl-caliber unit. Mayfield should be much more successful this week than he was in Week 6 when the Buccaneers lost 20-6 and weren’t playing with much confidence yet.
Mike Evans has gone over 50 yards in 11-of-18 games this season and remains Mayfield’s best receiver despite some recent breakout performances from Cade Otton (tight end) and Trey Palmer. He finished with 49 yards against Detroit on 10 targets in Week 6. He’ll be better this time.
Jared Goff had no running game in Week 6 in Tampa after David Montgomery was injured early and Jahmyr Gibbs was inactive. The Lions had a season-low 40 rushing yards. But Goff stepped up and passed for a season-high 353 yards. He has gone over 350 yards in all 3 meetings against Todd Bowles’ Tampa defense since 2019. Goff has passed for over 250 yards in all 7 games this season against teams that blitzed him at least 12 times. He should be productive in this game as Tampa is a solid run defense that will likely contain the Detroit ground game that has not produced 80 yards in back-to-back weeks.
Amon-Ra St. Brown had a wonderful playoff debut with 110 yards and the game-clinching first down that secured Detroit’s first playoff win since 1991. St. Brown had 12 catches for 124 yards in Tampa in Week 6. He is incredibly consistent. St. Brown has gone over 5.5 catches and 70 yards in 14-of-17 games this year, including every home game.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Baker Mayfield 2+ Passing Touchdowns & Mike Evans 50+ Receiving Yards & Jared Goff 250+ Passing Yards & Amon-Ra St. Brown 70+ Receiving Yards & Amon-Ra St. Brown 6+ Receptions (+309 at FanDuel)
5. Texans-Ravens: Exorcising the Playoff Demons in Baltimore
We have a 3-leg parlay that has the Ravens overcoming some past playoff struggles with the best offensive performance of the Lamar Jackson era in the postseason:
- Ravens Over 26.5 Points
- Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Zay Flowers Over 47.5 Receiving Yards
The Ravens have infamously not scored more than 20 points in any of Jackson’s 4 playoff starts, but he is playing his best in the last month, he’s rested, and the Houston defense is one of the worst at allowing big pass plays. For that matter, this Houston defense let Zach Wilson of the Jets score 30 points in one half in Week 14.
Overall, the Texans have allowed 5 teams to score at least 27 points this year, and the Ravens were just a field goal short of joining that list in Week 1. Baltimore has scored at least 31 points in 8 of Jackson’s last 10 starts. We’ll go with over 26.5 points here.
Gus Edwards has been a key cog in that running game all year, outlasting the injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell. Edwards leads the team with 13 touchdowns as they still rely on him to be the goal line back. In Week 1, Edwards did not score a touchdown because Dobbins and Justice Hill vultured the scoring plays. That was also one of just four games this year where Jackson did not throw or run for a touchdown. The Texans allowed the fewest touchdown passes (17) in the regular season. With Dobbins gone and Edwards the lead back, we’ll take him to score a touchdown this Saturday.
Finally, Zay Flowers made his NFL debut in Week 1 and he caught 9 balls for 78 yards against the Texans. He has grown as a player since, though his 78 yards were a season high until he had 106 yards against the Dolphins in Week 17. But his high usage rate against the Texans was a good sign of things to come, and he should get plenty of opportunities this week as Jackson’s best receiver. We’ll take his yards as a safer pick than his receptions. Flowers is over 47.5 yards in 11-of-16 games compared to over 4.5 receptions in 9-of-16 games.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Ravens Over 26.5 Points & Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Zay Flowers Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (+429 at FanDuel)
6. Chiefs-Bills: Lessons from the 2006 AFC Championship Game
At FanDuel, you can always bet on a single pick which team will have the lead at halftime (tie is an option too) and which team will lead at the end of regulation. We started off by saying how there have been 22 quarters played without a lead change this postseason, so hopefully this game can deliver Sunday night.
When these teams met two years ago in the divisional round, they scored 31 points after the 2-minute warning in one of the greatest games in NFL history, won 42-36 in overtime by the Chiefs. In fact, that game led to rule changes for overtime in the playoffs that we have yet to see transpire.
But this game has me thinking about history and how often history repeats itself in the NFL. In 2006, Peyton Manning’s Colts were hosting Tom Brady’s Patriots in the AFC Championship Game after both pulled off upsets on the road the week before. They were only the No. 4 and No. 3 seeds that year as the teams weren’t playing their best, much like the Chiefs and Bills this year who both finished 11-6.
Even though the Colts had won in New England in the regular season in 2005 and earlier in 2006, they still had the stigma of being playoff chokers since they were 0-2 in the playoffs in New England, losing in the snow in 2003 and 2004. This is similar to how the Bills have won in Kansas City in 2022 and 2023, but people still feel uneasy about them because of their 0-2 playoff record to the Chiefs from 2020 and 2021.
But 2006 was supposed to be Indy’s year because they were getting the Patriots at home in the RCA Dome. Naturally, the Patriots led 21-3 in the first half after Manning threw a pick-six to Asante Samuel. It’s supposed to be their year, right?
But after Manning converted a 3rd-and-10 to Reggie Wayne to get a drive going before halftime, the Colts started to click and were able to drop 32 points in the second half in what was at the time the largest comeback in a championship game in NFL history. The Colts won 38-34 after Brady was intercepted by Marlin Jackson in the final minute. The Colts went on to beat the Bears in Super Bowl 41 and finally won that elusive championship. It wasn’t their best team in 2006, but it was the right team at the right time.
For New England, it was a huge blown opportunity and it kicked off a long string of playoff disappointments before the team finally won another ring in the 2014 season. But the 2006 Patriots were also at their weakest at wide receiver, much like the Chiefs in 2023, and that devastating loss led to an offseason rampage where the Patriots added Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth. We could see something similar in Kansas City this offseason, and a loss here would be the team’s earliest playoff exit in the Mahomes era.
But just as that game was a turning point for Indy, Buffalo can do the same thing this year. Sure, there’s still a potential AFC Championship Game in Baltimore next week that could be even harder to win, not to mention the Super Bowl, but they have to worry about slaying the Kansas City dragon first this week. You can’t blow these opportunities at home.
But as we shared with our No. 2 pick above, Mahomes is a road warrior, and he is probably going to embrace this road playoff atmosphere and play well. It would not be surprising at all to see the Chiefs lead at halftime.
Earlier this season, the Chiefs set a record for scoring 119 more points in the first half than they did in the second half through 10 games, the largest difference among all 1,577 teams since 1970. That calmed down a bit the rest of the way as the Chiefs started trailing more earlier in games, but they are not strangers to blowing leads in playoff games.
Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs have blown 3 leads of at least 18 points in the playoffs. They blew a 28-point lead to the 2013 Colts, they blew a 21-3 halftime lead at home to the 2017 Titans, and they blew a 21-3 lead in the first half against the 2021 Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.
I would not advise Josh Allen and company to fall behind 21-3 in the first half this week like Manning’s Colts did in 2006, but I love the idea of history repeating itself and Buffalo rallying to win this one with a big second half performance.
Scott’s NFL Pick: First Half Winner/End of Regulation Winner Parlay – Kansas City Chiefs – Buffalo (+700 at FanDuel)
7. Divisional Round Parlay
For our final pick of the divisional round, we are going big with a 6-leg parlay with over +3000 odds and it uses every game. Feel free to water down or pick and choose what you like from it or mix in things you love from above with it:
- Odell Beckham Jr. (Ravens) Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
- Packers Over 9.5 First Half Points
- Jayden Reed (Packers) 40+ Receiving Yards
- Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) 50+ Receiving Yards
- Mike Evans (Buccaneers) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Chiefs ML
Odell Beckham Jr. has been waiting for a moment like this since he tore his ACL in the 2021 Super Bowl with the Rams. He had 37 yards against Houston in Week 1, but the Ravens only had to throw 22 passes that day. Look for him to do a little more and all 5 of his 40-yard games this year have come at home.
The Packers need a hot start in San Francisco just like they did in Dallas last week when they took the opening kickoff for a touchdown drive. The Packers were the worst first-half scoring team in the NFL through 8 weeks, but they have been essentially the best since then, including 27 points by halftime in Dallas last week. They have scored over 9.5 by halftime in 9 of their last 10 games, and they should keep that streak going here.
Helping the cause this week for Green Bay should be de facto No. 1 receiver Jayden Reed, who had no catches in his playoff debut last week. But that was more about the Packers only throwing 21 passes, playing more 2-tight end formations, and the big day for Romeo Doubs. Reed only played 26 snaps last week. Look for him to do much more this week and get at least 40 yards. He had games with 112 and 89 yards to end the regular season.
In that same game, Brandon Aiyuk is San Francisco’s leading receiver and best traditional route runner. It is hard to imagine him not having a good game, especially with Green Bay corner Jaire Alexander having another injury situation. We’ll trust Aiyuk for at least 50 yards, something he has done in 12-of-15 games that he finished this year.
We mentioned Mike Evans earlier in the Bucs-Lions parlay. He led the league with 13 touchdowns this year, the first time he ever led the NFL in a major receiving category. Baker Mayfield threw 3 touchdowns last week, but none went to Evans. Look for him to answer this week for the Buccaneers against that underwhelming Detroit secondary.
Finally, we started by saying that 16 of the last 18 seasons have seen at least one road team win in this round. It will be hard for those underdogs on Saturday to topple the No. 1 seeds with elite defenses coming off bye weeks. The Bucs could always luck into some Goff turnovers for an upset, but Detroit is usually quite good at home. If you had to pick an upset, it would still have to be the Chiefs in Buffalo.
I know our previous pick was giving the storyline for a Buffalo win, but since this is the final leg of the weekend, you could always hedge when placing the bet and take the Bills here too for a guaranteed win should we start 5-for-5. But the Chiefs have a defense that can hold down the Bills at home, and Mahomes is 7-3 SU as an underdog in his career.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Odell Beckham Jr. Over 37.5 Receiving Yards & Packers Over 9.5 First Half Points & Jayden Reed 40+ Receiving Yards & Brandon Aiyuk 50+ Receiving Yards & Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Chiefs ML (+3083 at FanDuel)
