By Ian Wharton
The caliber of quarterback play across the NFL has risen dramatically over the last five years. An influx of highly athletic and accurate passers has changed how the position is played. It’s easier than ever to post efficient numbers; therefore, the bar has been elevated for exceptional quarterbacks to make an impact on winning.
The NFL’s best quarterbacks are not only able to create big plays and convert touchdown opportunities at a high rate but they’re also avoiding turnovers better than ever. That wasn’t always the case. Even looking back at the top NFL passers a decade ago reveals a different standard for quarterbacks.
Of the 32 quarterbacks who started at least six games in 2021, 19 finished the season with an interception rate of 2.5 percent of their total passes.
In 2021, just 14 of the 34 quarterbacks who started the same amount of games could claim the same level of ball protection. Four of them, including Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, and Philip Rivers, made the Pro Bowl that year.
We’re looking at the 2021 starting quarterbacks and ranking the worst five. We’re filtering out the young bucks who have not been in the NFL for at least four seasons in order to level the playing field. There’s still time for Drew Lock, Daniel Jones, and every quarterback drafted since then to still make a leap in 2022.
But the rest are on the hot seat after posting mediocre stats and failing to impact their team’s ability to win on game day. These players don’t produce touchdowns and avoid turnovers at a high enough level, and their overall conservative nature is more harmful than helpful. Those that take check downs often are effectively padding their completion rates instead of risking more difficult throws.
Let’s jump in and dive into why these five starters have landed in this precarious position and what they can do to get off this list.
5. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
2021 stats: 67.2% completion rate, 3,734 yards, 21 TDs, 14 INTs
After seeing a massive resurgence in his first two seasons in Tennessee, Ryan Tannehill saw everything around him crumble in 2021. In 28 games between 2019 and 2020, Tannehill had earned a Pro Bowl bid after completing 67.2 percent of his passes for an average of 27.5 touchdowns, 6.5 interceptions, and 8.33 yards per completion per year. He had a touchdown rate of 6.9 and an interception rate of 1.6.
His 2021 season held steady with his completion rate. However, his yards per average dipped to 7.0, his touchdown rate dropped to four percent, and his interception rate climbed to 2.6 percent. Tannehill became a liability quickly despite racking up seven touchdowns on the ground for the second consecutive year.
Some of his decline was beyond his own control. Star running back Derrick Henry missed nine games with a broken bone in his foot. A.J. Brown missed four games and Julio Jones was barely visible in the 10 games he participated in. The offensive line took a clear step backwards when defenses keyed in on the passing game.
Instead of rising to the occasion as a veteran passer, Tannehill played tentatively and became turnover-prone. He ranked no higher than 20th in touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per average attempt, or yards per-game. The Titans had zero chance of winning in the playoffs with such inconsistent play from a 33-year-old quarterback.
Tannehill enters this season in a make-or-break year. Several young quarterbacks matched his caliber of play in 2021, and the Titans added third-rounder Malik Willis as his backup in the 2022 NFL draft. If Tannehill repeats his low-level of play, the Titans can release him in 2023 with a June 1 distinction and save $27 million of his $36.6 million cap hit.
A revamped offensive line, healthy Henry, and an overhauled receiving corps will need to propel Tannehill to a return to his previous level. If they can’t, he’ll tank their Super Bowl hopes in a hurry.
4. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
2021 stats: 67.2% completion rate, 3,245 yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs
Both of the top-two picks from the 2016 NFL draft could justifiably be on this list. Neither Jared Goff nor Carson Wentz are more than mediocre quarterbacks despite entering their seventh season. But for as many faults as Wentz has, his ability to create big plays is more valuable than Goff’s inability to impact the game.
Goff didn’t use to always be check down happy. On the surface level, his completion rate with arguably the worst receiving corps in the NFL is impressive. He also restricted his turnovers to the second-lowest rate of his career at just 1.6 percent of his throws.
However, Goff is nothing more than a milquetoast game-manager. He finished 27th of 32 quarterbacks in yards per attempt and 22nd in touchdown rate. Goff was also dead last in intended air yards per attempt.
The only clearly worse veteran passers than him in 2021 were Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold, and Andy Dalton.
The Los Angeles Rams gave up on Goff because of his inability to create outside of his first read and the wave of turnovers he produced. Goff has fumbled a staggering 51 times in 83 career games, including nine last season. He’s also a complete non-threat rushing unless he’s on the goal line.
Goff cannot be a difference-making quarterback unless he suddenly learns how to create positive plays while under pressure. Tom Brady is the only high-end starter who is a statue in the pocket like Goff is. Brady compensates is pinpoint precision and possessing one of the best minds the NFL has ever seen.
Goff still struggles reading pre- and post-snap coverage changes and his mechanics vary wildly within games. Much will need to change for Goff to continue being a starter beyond 2022. The Lions can escape his $30.65 million deal with just $10 million in dead cap if he can’t improve his performance this season.
3. Mitch Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 stats: 75% completion rate, 43 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT (eight passes in six games)
Forever set to be compared to fellow 2017 NFL draft classmate Patrick Mahomes, Mitch Trubisky has the opportunity to rewrite the narrative of his career now that he’s in Pittsburgh. Trubisky wasn’t awful in Chicago throughout his entire tenure, but inconsistency with his field vision led to far too many turnovers and lack of impactful plays. The physical tools were never the issue.
The dual-threat passer flamed out in Chicago despite racking up a 29-21 record in four seasons. Trubisky has solid speed and is comfortable escaping outside of the pocket. His issues on the field stem from uncertainty as he reads defenses.
It’s easy for defenses to get Trubisky to do that they want. Dropping seven defenders into zone all but guarantees Trubisky will take a checkdown because he doesn’t trust his eyes and arm to thread passes through tight coverage for completions. That’s why Trubisky has a career completion rate of 64.1 percent but is now a journeyman despite turning 28 later this summer.
His career average of 6.7 yards per completion would have landed him tied for 26th in 2021, and his career touchdown rate (4 percent) and interception rate (2.4 percent) also pit him amongst the bottom-half of 2021 performers. Pittsburgh will turn to first-round rookie Kenny Pickett quickly if Trubisky can’t do better consistently.
The good news for Trubisky is that Pittsburgh has a great set of weapons to rely on. He’s never had such a deep array of playmakers, including Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. Pittsburgh’s offensive line will need to play better than last year but Trubisky could also help them more than Ben Roethlisberger did thanks to his mobility.
There’s room for Trubisky to be a decent starter in the NFL with his physical skill set. He projects as a much better fit for Matt Canada’s unique motion-based offense thanks to his legs and strong arm on short throws. Hopefully his year on the bench behind Josh Allen allowed him to learn more of the nuances of the NFL.
2. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons
2021 stats: 50% completion rate, 4 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs (two passes in 10 games)
One of the most fascinating offseason developments was how Atlanta quickly decided to replace franchise legend Matt Ryan with free-agent Marcus Mariota. Atlanta failed to lure Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans and also burned their bridge with Ryan as they sought his replacement. Instead of then trading for Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield, Atlanta almost immediately signed Mariota.
Mariota and Falcons head coach Arthur Smith have their own history. Smith was Tennessee’s offensive coordinator in 2019 and 2020, when Mariota had a middling run and was eventually benched for Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill immediately thrived because he excelled where Mariota didn’t as a more accurate and discerning decision-maker.
Despite how things played out in Tennessee, Mariota expressed excitement about reuniting with Smith, saying the coach helped him “play free“. The 28-year-old has thrown just 30 passes over his last two seasons with Las Vegas as a backup, and hasn’t had real success in the league since his breakout sophomore season.
Since producing 45 touchdowns to just 19 interceptions over his first 27 games, Mariota has slumped with 32 touchdowns to 26 interceptions in 44 games. Defenses started forcing Mariota to move outside of the pocket and throw deeper downfield and he couldn’t adjust. His lack of downfield accuracy and poise under pressure limited his ability to “play freely”.
With 2022 third-round rookie Desmond Ridder breathing down his neck, Mariota won’t have long to prove himself as more than a fringe starter in Atlanta. The Falcons have little in terms of proven surrounding talent, so his best hope is for 2022 first-rounder Drake London to be ready for a Justin Jefferson-type breakout.
Either that, or Mariota’s two years on the bench behind Derek Carr will have hopefully allowed him to read defenses faster and give him more confidence to deliver accurate passers with defenders hanging around his feet.
1. Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
2021 stats: 59.9% completion rate, 2,527 yards, 9 TDs, 13 INTs
Getting away from Adam Gase and one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL was supposed to save quarterback Sam Darnold’s career. Darnold, the former third overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, had plenty of fans across the league despite playing so poorly in New York because he was an exciting prospect who made splash plays out of structure throughout his USC tenure. What those pundits didn’t weigh heavily enough was Darnold’s recklessness with the ball and the reason why he relied on extending plays to look good.
Darnold has below-average arm talent for an NFL starter and he compounds his lack of velocity and natural accuracy with poor lower-body mechanics and slow eyes while reading the field. His career numbers are much more consistent with what an average passer back in 1994 would produce. Unfortunately, that lands him as the worst starter in the NFL in 2022.
He’s completed just 59.8 percent of career attempts for 54 touchdowns and 52 interceptions. His career yards per attempt cratered to 6.1 and 6.2 in 2020 and 2021. Darnold’s sack rate has ranked 34th and 27th over the last two years.
The Panthers appeared to be a better fit than New York if for no other reason they had a competent playcaller in Joe Brady. Brady was unable to make the pairing work, though, and head coach Matt Rhule made a change at offensive coordinator after a 5-7 start, and Darnold went on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.
Though Carolina’s offensive line was woeful and running back Christian McCaffrey played in just seven games, Darnold looked completely lost beyond facing limitations. Playing with D.J. Moore, Robbie Anderson, and Terrance Marshall Jr. should’ve been a recipe to be at least competent. Instead the Panthers’ offense sputtered and Darnold proved he’s nowhere near an NFL-caliber starter.
