By Andrew Doherty
The NFL regular season kickoff is just around the corner and here at 365Scores we have you covered with the best value bets for the 2022 NFL MVP award. As always, I advise shopping around for the best odds/lines available before placing your bets.
Recent history shows us that the criteria for the type of player who typically wins the NFL MVP award is simple: It’s almost always one of the top performing quarterbacks on a playoff team. 14 of the last 15 MVP winners have been quarterbacks that meet these criteria, with Adrian Peterson’s absurd 2012 season being the lone exception.
*Note: Odds are from Draftkings Sportsbook, they may be higher or lower on other sportsbooks*
No. 5: Russell Wilson +1400 (7th highest odds)
Oddsmakers and bettors alike are down on Wilson after a subpar 2021 season but he’s in a prime position to bounce back in a big way in 2022. Now healthy and on a new team with a loaded group of pass catchers and a strong running game, what’s going to help Russ the most this year is actually the upgrade he’s getting in protection.
Last year Seattle’s abysmal offensive line allowed Wilson to be pressured on 37% of his drop backs, which was among the highest in the league. The Broncos offensive line ranked 15th in pressures allowed in 2021 and should be even better in 2022 after signing veteran lineman Tom Compton, who finished last season with an 86.4 blocking grade.
In a loaded AFC West, expect Russ to be involved in plenty of shootouts where he can really rack up the passing numbers. The Denver coaching staff has given every indication that they’re going to#LetRussCook.
No. 4: Lamar Jackson +2000 (10th highest odds)
Most of the chatter surrounding Lamar Jackson this summer has been about his unresolved contract situation heading into the final year of his rookie deal. The two sides are reportedly not close to an agreement on a contract extension and believe it or not, this actually bodes well for Lamar’s MVP chances.
When examining how quarterbacks have performed over the years when looking for a second contract, a trend quickly becomes obvious: They tend to play much better when there’s a big payday on the line. As the youngest player ever to be named MVP, we already know that Lamar has what it takes to win the award.
The Ravens were perhaps the most injury-ravaged team in the league last season, losing multiple key starters for the year as well as losing Jackson for a five-game stretch. Now that he’s fully healthy and with generational wealth on the line with his next contract, it’s a safe bet that Jackson will be spending plenty of extra time in the film room this season to help him wreak havoc on the league as he did back in 2019.
No. 3: Joe Burrow +1200 (6th highest odds)
Now a full season removed from the ACL injury that ended his rookie season, Joe Burrow is a young, ascending star in the NFL and the same can be said for his two favorite targets, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals’ offense, which already features arguably the best wide receiver trio in football along with a playmaking running back in Joe Mixon, has vastly improved its offensive line since last season.
It feels odd saying a team that reached the Super Bowl in 2021 had a fatal flaw but that’s how it seemed at times watching Cincinnati’s offensive line that graded in the bottom half of the league last year, coming in at 20th overall. Luckily for Burrow, the Bengals front office addressed the weak links in protection up front during free agency. On the interior, center Trey Hopkins and guard Hakeem Adeniji who graded out at a lowly 51.4 and 48.4 respectively in 2021 are gone. Replacing them are center Ted Karras and guard Alex Cappa, who had grades of 73.0 and 74.2 last season. Riley Reiff (67.3 grade in 2021) has been replaced by La’el Collins (84.0 grade in 2021) at right tackle.
Burrow passed for 34 touchdowns and over 4,600 yards in 2021 coming off ACL surgery behind a below-average offensive line. After the offseason upgrades in blocking, the sky is the limit for Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense in 2022.
No. 2: Josh Allen +650 (highest odds)
I mean do we really even need any analysis on this one? Simply put, Allen is a unicorn and at this point it’s only a matter of time before he wins his first MVP award. Yes, it’s a chalky bet taking the odds on favorite but even at +650, betting Allen in this spot is a value.
The Bills are the clear-cut favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2022 and Josh Allen is by far the biggest reason why. He’s eclipsed 4,400 passing yards in each of his last two seasons and passed for at least 36 touchdowns in both. Oh, and he’s run for 10 more touchdowns than Lamar Jackson has since they came into the league in 2018, racking up 31 touchdowns on the ground over a four-year span.
With Allen’s dual-threat ability and the supporting cast in Buffalo, it’s difficult to find a reason not like the odds at +650.
No. 1: Justin Herbert +900 (4th highest)
Justin Herbert has put up historic numbers since coming into the NFL and he shows no signs of slowing down in 2022. No player has thrown for more touchdowns (69) or more passing yards (9,350) through their first two seasons than Herbert in league history.
After passing for over 5,000 yards during his sophomore campaign, Herbert is well positioned to take the Chargers to the next level in year three. The team prioritized keeping Herbert clean in the pocket by using their first-round pick to add offensive lineman Zion Johnson to a unit that ranked 10th in the league in 2021. They added some star power on the other side of the ball with Khalil Mack and JC Jackson. The Chargers roster is loaded and a division title coupled with a deep playoff run is only going to help Herbert’s case to win MVP.
Storylines and narratives often matter when it comes to awards, and even MVP voters are prone to cognitive bias. Justin Herbert has already proven himself a star but if he can lead the Chargers past Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this year in the AFC West, it’s going to be hard to make a case against giving Herbert the MVP award.
