By Scott Kacsmar
With the 2022 NFL season set to start in just over two weeks, the oddsmakers still prefer the Buffalo Bills (+550 at Bovada) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750) to represent their conferences in Super Bowl 57. The defending champion Los Angeles Rams (+1200) have the fifth-best odds, but no NFL team has been able to repeat since the 2003-04 Patriots.
But are there more valuable bets that could pay off as August winds down? Let’s look at the five best value bets to win Super Bowl 57.
Buffalo Bills (+550): Deserving Favorite
The Buffalo Bills were 13 seconds away from hosting the AFC Championship Game before faltering in Kansas City in a classic finish. Now the Bills have reloaded by adding Von Miller to the pass rush, and Josh Allen is coming off a historic postseason where he led 12 touchdown drives in 16 possessions.
The Bills are a deserving favorite in the AFC. They have picked apart Bill Belichick’s New England defense in three of the last four meetings and are the best team in the division. They no longer have to worry about Tyreek Hill burning them for 150-plus yards in the playoffs with the Chiefs like he did the last two years. The Bills also proved they can win in Kansas City with last season’s 38-20 victory.
Buffalo’s schedule will also be a great litmus test to prepare for a deep playoff run as the Bills face the Rams on opening night, and will also see the Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, and Bengals.
The Bills were 1-6 in close games last year, the worst record in the NFL. These things usually regress to the mean from that type of extreme, so the Bills should be better off in 2022. This is also the fifth year together for head coach Sean McDermott with Allen as his quarterback. No team has ever won its first championship by starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years. If this duo is going to win a Super Bowl for the Bills, it needs to be this season as the favorites going into Week 1.
Other good news for Buffalo: Since 1978, more teams (12) have won the Super Bowl following a divisional round loss than teams who lost in the Conference Championship Game (11) or missed the playoffs altogether (11) the previous season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750): Tom Brady’s Last Ride?
You may have noticed that Tom Brady has developed this annoying trend of winning the Super Bowl every other year since 2014. He won it with the Patriots in 2014, 2016, 2018, and then in 2020 with the Buccaneers. That puts him right on schedule for 2022, and sure enough, oddsmakers agree that Tampa Bay is in a good spot in the NFC with Todd Bowles taking over head coach duties from Bruce Arians.
While Brady’s retirement lasted 40 days, maybe the 45-year-old saw the makeup of the NFC and figured it was too good to pass this opportunity up after a tough loss against the Rams, who remain this team’s biggest kryptonite with three straight losses.
But the Packers lost Davante Adams, the Saints lost head coach Sean Payton, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson fled to the AFC, the Cardinals implode every November, and teams like the Cowboys and Vikings can never be trusted in January.
While Rob Gronkowski retired, don’t put it past the team putting in an emergency call late in the season if they need receiving help like they did last year when Antonio Brown destroyed his career, and Chris Godwin tore his ACL. If this team can avoid the Rams in the playoffs, it just may get right back to the Super Bowl.
Then perhaps Brady can finally go away for good with an eighth ring.
Baltimore Ravens (+2000): Regression Darlings
Like Buffalo, the Ravens are in Year 5 of the John Harbaugh-Lamar Jackson era. It took the fifth season (2012) for Harbaugh to win a Super Bowl with Joe Flacco, and the team has not since returned to the AFC Championship Game.
But last year the Ravens were rocked hard by injuries, especially at running back and in the secondary, and they were in a league-high 13 close games, finishing 6-7 in them with a six-game losing streak to close the season with Jackson on the injury list too. Even without Jackson, this team was right there with the top-seeded Packers and champion Rams before losing both games by a single point.
Regression should like this team in 2022 as close games and injuries hopefully regress to the mean. Remember, Jackson is 37-12 as a starter in the regular season, and this team’s historic rushing consistency under him makes them a unique challenge. They also finally got over the hump last season with a win over the Chiefs, their newest nemesis, and they no longer have to deal with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.
With Jackson betting on himself as his own agent while he seeks a huge second contract, the fifth year just may be the charm for him to get to the Super Bowl. He will however have to play much better come playoff time.
Denver Broncos (+1600): Ride with Russ?
Can Russell Wilson make it three seasons in a row where a veteran quarterback goes to a new team and immediately wins the Super Bowl? The AFC West is going to be a tough one, but Wilson is used to a strong division race, and he gives the Broncos legitimacy at the position they have failed to fill since Peyton Manning retired in 2016.
Wilson outdueled Patrick Mahomes in 2018 in their only meeting. He is the key to ending Denver’s 13-game losing streak against the Chiefs, who lost Tyreek Hill and Tyrann Mathieu.
The Broncos were 0-9 last season when they allowed more than 16 points. Enter Wilson with an offensive-minded head coach in Nathaniel Hackett, and this team should be much better equipped to handle shootouts and coming back in games. Wilson has a talented cast around him and arguably still the best defense in the division.
Like Manning joining the Broncos in 2012 or Drew Brees with the Saints in 2006 or Tom Brady with the Buccaneers in 2020, Wilson should be able to have a transformative effect on this whole Denver team. He also needed a change of scenery from Seattle, a team now in a rebuild.
Many times, these new quarterback additions work right away as Matthew Stafford has told you in a commercial. Denver fans will tell you Manning’s 2012 team was the best one of his four, but Rahim Moore vs. Jacoby Jones happened in the playoffs. We saw Brett Favre lead the 2009 Vikings to the NFC Championship Game as well. Wilson has a great shot to do something special in Denver, and it would be great to happen this year before the Chiefs find Mahomes his next special weapon.
Las Vegas Raiders (+4000): Derek Carr’s Glow Up Revenge Tour?
Josh McDaniels is looking to do something that oddly enough only Jon Gruden has done in NFL history: take a team that has not been to the Super Bowl in the previous two years and win a championship immediately. Only four first-year coaches have won a Super Bowl, but all but Gruden took over a team that was just there recently, such as the 2013 Broncos (Gary Kubiak in 2015), the 1988 49ers (George Seifert in 1989), and the 1968 Colts (Don McCafferty in 1970).
This would be a dark horse, but let’s remember that Bill Belichick needed a second shot with the Patriots to become the greatest head coach in NFL history. He was not that guy in Cleveland. Maybe McDaniels is ready for this second shot with what could be the best receiving trio in the league with Davante Adams joining tight end Darren Waller and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow. Do not discount a classic Patriots-style offense where Renfrow plays the Wes Welker role and catches more balls than the prolific Adams.
Obviously, this hinges heavily on Derek Carr playing his best ball in his ninth season, but he has his best roster yet, and the defense added sack master Chandler Jones to pair up with Maxx Crosby.
With the rumor that Carr was the quarterback that Tom Brady called an expletive when the Raiders chose to stick with their guy in 2020, wouldn’t it be something if Carr won a Super Bowl in his first year with Brady’s old play caller?
Arizona Cardinals (+4000): Independent Study Dark Horse
While every headline has been bad this offseason for Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, what if the NFL’s last unbeaten team in 2021 pulls off the unthinkable in 2022? Remember, the Cardinals were 7-0, routed the Rams on the road, lost a tight one on a late interception to the Packers, and several of their best players (Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and J.J. Watt) were injured during the season.
With so much attention going towards Murray’s independent study clause that the team had to remove after backlash, he should have a bigger chip on his shoulder than ever before. He should easily clear those four hours of film study a week. Murray was in the MVP mix last season before struggling upon his return from injury.
People prefer to focus on the defending champion Rams or the possibilities for San Francisco with Trey Lance, but the Cardinals have a solid football team in place. They just need the stars to stay healthy and for new wideout Marquise Brown to welcome a return to playing with Murray the way they shined together in college.
It wouldn’t even be the craziest Arizona Super Bowl run of the 21st century if you remember the 2008 season. It also would mark the third year in a row where an NFC team got to play the Super Bowl in its home building.
