By Anthony Wootton
Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL! Thursday Night Football between the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bulls will be a wonderful breath of fresh air for all football fans.
Let’s dive into our best DFS plays of the night!
Allen Robinson
Ba-dum. Ba-dum. That’s the sound of me continuing to beat the drum for Allen Robinson as I have all summer long. Robinson is arguably the most undervalued player in DFS, season long fantasy and betting markets right now. Why you ask? Because his disappointing 2021 season has everyone convinced he’s washed when he isn’t.
When the Rams take on the Bills to kickoff the NFL season, Robinson will be benefitting from three things he’s never had during his professional career: 1) Good quarterback play. 2) Another wideout that dictates coverage. 3) Competent play-calling and coaching. With star cornerback Tre’Davious White sidelined for the Bills, it’s favorable matchups across the board for the Rams receivers. Slot corner Taron Johnson, who had a 59.9 coverage grade without White on the field in 2021, will undoubtedly be given safety help on almost every play when he’s lined up against Cooper Kupp. This creates more one on one opportunities for Robinson on the perimeter, where he will likely be mostly matching up against 2020 seventh round pick Dane Jackson or 2022 first round pick Kaiir Elam who has never played an NFL snap. Either way, it’s a massive advantage for Robinson.
A-Rob is taking over the role Odell Beckham Jr filled for the Rams in 2021. Despite playing only part of the season in LA, Beckham Jr saw 12 targets inside the 10 yard line last year which he converted into 8 catches for 8 touchdowns. The Rams also led the league in passing attempts inside the 5 yard line in 2021, opting to throw 65.8% of the time. Robinson, who thrives in contested catch situations, is in a prime spot to potentially score multiple touchdowns on opening night.
Of course, none of these points matter to those who believe he is washed, so I’ll end with this: Robinson put up a dominant line of 102/1,250/6 in 2020 and was then franchise tagged by a hopeless team and head coach that had no intent on signing him to a long term deal. He then dealt with a QB carousel and subpar (to put it nicely) play calling all year long, and all of this tells us one of two things happened: either Robinson suddenly fell off and forgot how to play football during his age 28 season without suffering a major injury, or he was disgruntled and focused on being healthy for Free Agency. I know which scenario I find more likely, and I’ll be putting Robinson in every last one of my lineups tonight.
James Cook
While it may seem risky to trust an unproven rookie who hasn’t won the starting job (yet), James Cook has the upside to win you the slate on opening night. Against a Rams defense that allowed the 6th lowest rushing yards per game in 2021, I’m playing Cook because of his projected role in the passing game.
Despite what you’d think from looking at last years numbers for Buffalo running backs as pass catchers, the Bills want to have their backs heavily involved in the passing game. Buffalo made every effort to get Devin Singletary going as receiving back, evidenced by him finishing the year third in routes run among running backs. Yet for all the routes he ran, Singletary was targeted on a mere 12.9% of them. With Singletary and the rest of the Bills backfield unable to thrive in a pass catching role in 2021, the Bills used a second round pick on Cook with the expectation that he will be the answer.
As with all rookie players in Week One, Cook is a projection play. He showed us plenty of reason for optimism in the pre-season with a 50% avoided tackle rate, but he’s currently third on the depth chart and with his upside comes risk. Rookies tend to be on a very short leash with their head coaches and Cook could certainly find himself benched after one missed read in pass protection. However considering his cost, along with the probability that Buffalo won’t have an easy time moving the ball on the ground against the stout front seven of the Rams, it seems inevitable that the Bills turn to Cook for his passing game prowess.
Josh Allen
I know, I know. Playing Josh Allen tonight, or any night for that matter, isn’t exactly rocket science. But let me ask you this: How often is the player with both the highest floor AND the highest ceiling not the most expensive option on the slate? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Now, I won’t go into too much detail about this, but one of the most overlooked DFS strategies is using correlated plays. If we’re on board with the aforementioned James Cook play because we project a difficult matchup on the ground for Buffalo, then logic tells us we should be buying the Bills passing game. Not only that, but with a dual threat like Allen, we can expect him to make some plays with his legs to help bolster the ground attack if it’s struggling. Allen finished last season third in rushing yards and attempts, with 32 of those attempts coming in the red zone.
Allen and the Bills finished second among all teams in 2021 in passing rate with a neutral game script. The volume is clearly there for Allen, who finished fourth in passing attempts last year despite having one of the better records in the league. At his current price, it’s difficult to find any reason not to start him.
