Portland Timbers vs LAFC Preview and Predictions
Game Info
Date/Time: March 4th, 2023, 1:30 pm Local Time (PST)
TV: Apple TV, Fox
Location: BMO Stadium, Los Angeles, California, USA
Portland Timbers Preview
The Timbers are coming off a disappointing 2022 campaign in which the club missed the MLS playoffs for the first time since 2016 and first time ever since Giovani Savarese took over as coach. Finishing eighth in the Western Conference with just 11 wins in 34 matches, Portland still managed to score 53 goals last year, more than four of the teams who qualified ahead of them for the postseason. Although their offensive output was in the top half on the league, they conceded 53 goals as well, tied for their second-worst defensive showing ever in MLS despite a breakout campaign from goalkeeper Aljaž Ivačič.
The team the Timbers are bringing back is almost identical to the one that failed to make the playoffs last year. Just two senior players departed the club, while only one was brought in. that player was Brazilian midfielder Evander, who was brought to Portland from Danish club Midtjylland for a club-record fee reportedly around $10 million.
The hope is that Evander is a transcendent attacking player, a worthy replacement for the recently retired Diego Valeri. But even if Evander is excellent, and even if the team’s front six continue to play well, the Timbers still have to account for the same issues that plagued them last year in the back end.
LAFC Preview
Since joining the MLS five years ago, LAFC has proven to have a track record of winning and have created a lot of enemies in their brief history due to their immediate success. Coming off a MLS Cup Championship and Supporters Shield trophy last season, LAFC is ambitiously gunning for another title, but will have to rearrange their lineup to do so as a result of a number of departures following their amazing 2022 campaign.
Most notably, their top striker and leading scorer Chistian Arango left for Liga MX club C.F. Pachuca and Welsh superstar Christian Bale retired after the World Cup. With some major holes to fill on the front line, LAFC will look to veteran winger Carlos Vela and rising star Stipe Buik to pick up the slack in the attacking third of the pitch.
The rest of their roster is filled with a number of proven veterans and don’t have any glaring holes in their formation. The only question mark to this team is the lack of depth as a result of their off-season departures, but that is not something to worry about too much at the beginning of the season when health is not much of a concern.
Match Preview
LAFC’s opening game against LA Galaxy was postponed due to inclement weather, so this upcoming match against the Portland Timbers will be their first match of the season. The Timbers are coming off of a 1-0 victory over Sporting Kansas City and showed significant improvement on the back end. With such a small sample size it’s hard to know if all of Portland’s defensive woes have been fixed, but it is certainly a promising start to their season. Despite this, LAFC are rightfully the heavy favourites in this match, but Portland will not be an easy out. The reigning MLS Champs LAFC beat the Timbers twice last season and drew once, but Portland kept every game competitive and gave their Western Conference foes a run for their money. Despite the Timbers lackluster defense last season, Portland was able to fend off LAFC’s strong attack with their physical and aggressive defense. Even with LAFC’s new additions in their attack and the Timbers success defending LAFC in recent years, it still would be a shocking upset if the Timbers were to get the win. Nevertheless, the odds are too good to pass up for Portland who could make a huge splash to start the MLS season.
Match Predictions and Picks
Moneyline – Portland Timbers (6.0) (+500)
With the odds heavily favoring LAFC, and Portland managing to keep it close in recent years, it could be worthwhile to make a small bet for a big payout on an upset victory for Portland to start the MLS season.
Total – Over 2.5 goals
With question marks in the back end for Portland and an aggressive offensive gameplan, there should be many opportunities for both teams to find the back on the net in a wide open game with a clear talent advantage for LAFC. Although it is likely that LAFC will win, Portland is a tough and resilient team that will continue to fight throughout the entire 90+ minutes, and tend to press offensively when trailing to try to find their equalizer. Given both teams aggressive style of play, this game should feature a number of goals that make the over a likely outcome.
Prop – Jaroslaw Niezgoda of Portland Timbers to score first (12.0) (+1100)
This prop is easily the best value considering that Niezgoda is Portland’s highest goal scorer and has the 7th highest odds to reach the back of the net first. As a heavy underdog with nothing to lose, Portland will look to push the pace and threaten their opponent early and often. It wouldn’t be shocking if Portland’s aggressive attack leads to an early goal, making Niezgoda’s insane value to score first too good to pass up.
