By Scott Kacsmar
While things were looking bleak after a 2-6 start, the Pittsburgh Steelers came out of their bye week refocused. They stopped turning the ball over, welcomed T.J. Watt back, and took advantage of an easier second-half schedule to finish 9-8 for their 19th non-losing season in a row.
But the goals need to be a little loftier than extending that streak to a 20th season in 2023. The Steelers have not won a playoff game in the last six seasons, the longest streak for Pittsburgh since the franchise went its first 37 seasons without a playoff win before breaking through in 1972.
Sportsbooks are not optimistic about Pittsburgh ending this drought. The Steelers have the worst odds of winning the AFC North even though they have finished ahead of Cleveland in every season since 1990. Pittsburgh has an over/under of 8.5 wins, so another 9-8 finish would continue the streak without a losing season, but it still may not be enough for a wild card spot like how it wasn’t enough last year.
Mike Tomlin will be looking for more out of second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, but the Steelers are putting a lot on natural development instead of changing the pieces around him to get better. Will it work out?
We look back at 2022’s tale of two seasons, the key offseason changes, the chances for Pickett having a breakout year, and the best Steelers bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: The Ups and Downs of the Start of the Kenny Pickett Era
Pittsburgh no doubt had some tough losses early in the year when T.J. Watt was injured. These are games that arguably cost them a playoff spot, but none stung more than blowing a 10-point lead at home in the fourth quarter to Zach Wilson and the Jets. To allow such a bad quarterback to have his best moment like that was rough.
However, we would be remiss to not point out that the Steelers had one of 2022’s luckiest wins when they beat the Bengals in Cincinnati on opening day. With a healthy Watt, the Steelers forced Joe Burrow into 5 turnovers and 7 sacks, but they still gave up a game-tying touchdown to Ja’Marr Chase with 2 seconds left. All the Bengals needed to do was make an extra point to win 21-20, but they had their emergency long snapper in the game. The kick process was messed up due to this change, and the Steelers blocked the extra point to their credit.
But after Pittsburgh’s offense stalled again in overtime, the Bengals just had to make a 29-yard field goal to win the game. But with the kick process still messed up, they blew that too, eventually leading to a Pittsburgh win on a 53-yard field goal by Chris Boswell.
It was only Week 1, but that huge upset arguably saved the streak of non-losing season for Tomlin and the Steelers.
But with Watt injured and the offense struggling under Mitch Trubisky, the Steelers made the move to rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett in the third quarter against the Jets. Pickett had 3 interceptions in the game after some bad luck, but he also completed all 10 of his other passes and scored 2 rushing touchdowns to give the team a spark. But the aforementioned blown lead to Wilson dropped the Steelers to 1-3.
Choosing to make a road game in Buffalo, the Super Bowl favorite at the time, the first start for Pickett was an odd choice by Tomlin. The Steelers were crushed 38-3. They were also destroyed 35-13 by the Eagles, the NFC’s best team, so the Steelers were zero match for the NFL’s elite with a rookie quarterback and no Watt on defense. But almost every other game last season was close and could have gone either way.
After that loss to the Eagles, the Steelers enjoyed their bye week. They came out of it as a changed team as Pickett went from throwing 2 touchdowns and 8 interceptions before the bye to 5 touchdowns and 1 interception the rest of the season. The 2-6 record led to a 7-2 finish. Watt also came back after the bye, though he was not the same dominant player we are used to seeing. Still, the Pittsburgh defense stepped up and did not allow more than 17 points in any of the final 7 games.
Pickett had his second concussion of the season early in a game against Baltimore, and the Steelers struggled with 3 turnovers as Trubisky made some ill-advised throws in a tough 16-14 loss.
Pickett returned to face the Raiders on Christmas Eve, and he delivered a game-winning touchdown pass to George Pickens with 46 seconds left. A week later, he did the same thing but in grander fashion against the Ravens, finding Najee Harris for a touchdown with 56 seconds left in a 16-13 win. In each game, it was the only touchdown drive for the Steelers, but Pickett showed great improvement in those situations after throwing interceptions in the clutch in a 16-10 loss to Miami early in the season.
The Steelers beat Cleveland 28-14 in Week 18, securing the 19th-straight non-losing season. But they did not get enough help to make the playoffs and finished No. 8 in the AFC.
Offseason Review
The Steelers are much like the Green Bay Packers in that they rarely rely on spending big money in free agency and prefer to lean on their drafting and coaching abilities. If the 2022 Steelers had a more experienced quarterback and a healthy T.J. Watt, that is a playoff team last year.
That is why the plan in 2023 largely revolves around Pickett no longer being a rookie and Watt (hopefully) playing a full season and getting back in that Defensive Player of the Year conversation. When healthy, he really is the biggest difference-maker on that side of the ball in the NFL right now. Those close games the Steelers lost without Watt last year to the Patriots, Browns, Jets, and Dolphins could have swung if he was there as he is great at coming up with forced fumbles and key sacks or deflected passes.
The defense is undergoing some changes, though most moves should be lateral and not change much from last season. Safety Terrell Edmunds is gone after a 5-year run that never quite lived up to his first-round pick status. He’ll be replaced by veteran Damontae Kazee, who already got experience in Pittsburgh last year before injury limited him to 9 games and 4 starts.
The Steelers also lost corner Cam Sutton to the Lions, though they have added future Hall of Famer Patrick Peterson. He is past his prime, but he can be serviceable for a Tomlin defense that rarely has had top-notch corner play anyway.
The linebackers are also seeing change as Devin Bush is gone after disappointing even more than Edmunds as a 2019 first-round pick. Veteran Myles Jack is gone too, but the Steelers can get by with veteran off-ball linebackers like Cole Holcomb (48 starts in Washington) and Elandon Roberts (76 starts with Patriots and Dolphins).
Pittsburgh will be excited about its 2023 draft class. While the offensive line was better than expected last year, it was still not a strength of the team. First-round pick Broderick Jones (Georgia) has a great shot to start at left tackle this year.
The defense also was able to add corner Joey Porter Jr. at the top of the second round after many projected him to go in the first round. He will have a chip on his shoulder and going to play for the team his dad became a household name with should be good for him too. Pittsburgh’s third pick in the top 50 picks was nose tackle Keeanu Benton, who should be a Week 1 starter. Tight end Darnell Washington is another interesting Georgia prospect who could play as a sixth offensive lineman or catch a few passes unexpectedly down the field.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Will Kenny Pickett Overcome His Coaching to Have a Breakout Year?
Playing in a division with Cincinnati (Joe Burrow) and Baltimore (Lamar Jackson) is tough, but there might be more buzz around the Steelers in 2023 had they fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the source of many of their problems since 2021.
In 35 games with Canada as the offensive coordinator, the Steelers have never had 400 yards of offense in any game. It is the longest such streak in the NFL since Washington had a 38-game streak in 2018-20. The next closest streaks to Canada’s 35 games over the last two years were in Washington (22 games) and Carolina (21 games). The Commanders fired their offensive coordinator and hired Eric Bieniemy from the Chiefs this offseason. The Panthers fired their coach (Matt Rhule) last season and hired a new offensive-minded head coach in Frank Reich.
Pittsburgh also has not scored more than 30 points in 25 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Canada is fortunate that the Steelers and Tomlin are loyal to their staff because he would be gone in most other cases. The Steelers have taken their 7-2 finish after the bye week as proof of improvement from Canada, but this could be a case of fool’s gold.
The Steelers built their post-bye improvement on a better running game and far better ball security from Pickett. Those are important traits to have. But you have to be careful about putting too much stock in a run built on 3rd-down efficiency, having almost no turnovers, and coming up with game-winning touchdown drives against two defenses that were historically bad at holding late and multi-score leads in 2022 (Raiders and Ravens).
If the offense was truly improved late in the season, why are they only scoring 1 touchdown per game against those teams in a no-huddle situation at the end of the game?
Also, where are the big plays? Ben Roethlisberger’s surgically-repaired elbow could no longer be the scapegoat, but in 2022, the Steelers had two offensive touchdowns that did not happen in the red zone. Their longest scoring plays were 24 and 31 yards, and both were catches by George Pickens, who just had a 33-yard touchdown in the preseason in Tampa Bay too. Even on his last legs, Roethlisberger had 5 touchdown passes of 25-plus yards in 2021.
Kudos to Pickett for cutting down the picks and engineering a couple of clutch drives, but his yards per attempt in the final 8 games was only 6.44, which would have ranked no better than 30th in the 2022 season. He completed 59.4% of his passes, which was down from 67.9% before the bye.
A huge reason why the Steelers finished 7-2 not related to the offense was a defense that did not allow more than 17 points in the final 7 games, the longest streak for the Steelers since an 8-game run in 2001. A big reason why the 2022 Steelers went 7 games without allowing more than 17 points is they played this group of quarterbacks:
- Colts – Matt Ryan (benched and no longer on team)
- Falcons – Marcus Mariota (benched and no longer on team)
- Ravens – Tyler Huntley twice (backup who was injured in first game)
- Panthers – Sam Darnold (backup and no longer on team)
- Raiders – Derek Carr (benched and no longer on team)
- Browns – Deshaun Watson (terrible season)
We saw the Steelers give up 35-to-38 points in their last games against elite quarterbacks Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen. Those are the players you must beat in the playoffs, and we know Patrick Mahomes has destroyed this defense in his career (3-0 record with 14 touchdown passes and 40.0 points per game).
If the Steelers are going to compete with these AFC teams – Aaron Rodgers is in the conference now too – and get back to winning playoff games, they are going to have to get more from Pickett and the passing game.
Pickett only had 7 touchdown passes on 389 attempts last year. His 1.8% touchdown rate is the fifth lowest in NFL history in a season with at least 350 attempts. Suddenly, it begins to make sense how No. 1 receiver Diontae Johnson set an NFL record for the most targets (147) and catches (86) without a touchdown in a season.
But one of the greatest periods for improvement that a quarterback can make is from his first season to his second. This is the hope for Pickett, but can we expect to see it when the Steelers did not make huge changes around him? They have the same head coach and the same offensive coordinator, the latter being the main issue.
But beyond blaming Canada, the Steelers expect to have the same top two wide receivers (Johnson and Pickens), the same lead running back (Najee Harris), and the same lead tight end (Pat Freiermuth). The Steelers did sign wide receiver Allen Robinson, but he has not been useful since the 2020 season.
Counterpoint: This is a fine, young offensive core of players to work with that can grow together. Maybe Pickens puts everything together and has 1,200 yards this year. But then you remember what Canada has shown for two years and it gets depressing to think about what could have been if the team hired Kellen Moore (Chargers) or Eric Bieniemy (Commanders) or even Brian Schottenheimer (Cowboys).
Is it realistic for young talent to grow in spite of the coaching and no major weapons added? There have been 100 quarterbacks who threw at least 200 passes as a rookie and sophomores in the NFL. Only 12 of them managed to increase their adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) by at least 2.0 yards. Keep in mind ANY/A accounts for interceptions and sacks.
Why would an increase of 2.0 be significant for Pickett? Last year, Pickett averaged 4.70 ANY/A, which ranked 31st out of 33 quarterbacks. If he shot up to 6.70 ANY/A, Pickett would have ranked No. 8 between Joe Burrow (6.76) and Trevor Lawrence (6.66), two quarterbacks thought to have arrived and figure to be in Pickett’s way in this AFC for years to come.
We mentioned 12 quarterbacks have made this jump in ANY/A in their second season. The following chart shows those 12 quarterbacks and if they had any major changes in their offensive coaching or weapons.
First, it is an interesting mix of No. 1 overall picks, solid players, and some random names you wouldn’t have expected to see. But half of the list had a coaching change with some significant innovators coming in to help the quarterback, including Bill Walsh, Chip Kelly, and Sean McVay.
In 5-of-6 cases where the team did not make a coaching change, it was because the coach and quarterback came in together. The lone exception was Pittsburgh royalty with Chuck Noll drafting Terry Bradshaw No. 1 overall in his second season as the coach. The two butted heads for years before things worked out.
Bradshaw’s season is also an example of how some of these rookies were so bad – 9-of-12 had a lower ANY/A than Pickett – that it was not that hard to improve in Year 2. That doesn’t mean they necessarily had a breakout year as the results were still not good in Year 2 for Bradshaw, Norm Snead, Steve DeBerg, and Jack Trudeau.
As for the weapons, 8-of-12 had some pretty significant upgrades whether it be a 1,000-yard rusher or a new No. 1 wide receiver. Someone like Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville last year got three new targets and his college teammate Travis Etienne, who spent his whole rookie year on injured reserve. Then there were cases like Blake Bortles and Bradshaw where the team drafted receivers for them as rookies and the players grew together in Year 2.
Someone like Peyton Manning really started turning things around in his rookie year after a miserable 6-game start. But Manning also threw 7 touchdowns in his last four games as a rookie, as many as Pickett had in all of 2022. So, comparing quarterbacks to Manning, who set many rookie records, is rarely a good idea.
The quarterback who did the heaviest lifting on this list was Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia. He even led the team in rushing with 629 yards. He threw for 3,365 yards and 21 touchdowns with a lackluster receiving corps. But he did have the mind of Andy Reid on his side as Big Red was just getting started in his second season as a head coach. The Eagles also had one of the best defenses in the league with 9 wins that season in games where they did not allow more than 14 points. That helps too.
Pickett may have the defense on his side. He may have the young receiver (Pickens) ready to break out for a huge year too. But as this chart shows, it is very difficult to force a breakout year without making big changes to the quarterback’s surroundings.
Someone like Jalen Hurts also got new coaches in Year 2 (Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen) and a great wideout (A.J. Brown) in Year 3 in Philadelphia. Burrow did not shine much as a rookie until the team drafted Ja’Marr Chase in 2021. Even some of the infamous Year 3 breakouts this decade, Josh Allen (Bills) and Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), needed a stud receiver added like Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill.
When your quarterback is not good in his first year as a starter, doubt starts to creep in. If Pickett does not take a big leap forward in 2023, Matt Canada should still be a good scapegoat. Things only get scary if the Steelers move on from their mistake in 2024 and the results are still not there. But this offense is not without talent, and neither is Pickett as a serviceable game manager who can play winning football.
However, this AFC is more demanding of what it needs at quarterback to compete, and this offense with Pickett and Canada may not be enough to get there in 2023.
Best Bets for the 2023 Steelers
There are multiple divisions in the NFL the Steelers would be perfectly capable of winning in 2023, including the AFC South, NFC South, and NFC North. Alas, they are stuck in the bloody battles of the AFC North. Even if the Steelers have the best defense in the AFC North this year, the gap at quarterback will probably still be significant enough to keep them away from a division title unless Burrow regresses or Jackson gets injured again.
But the division should be good for a few wins for Pittsburgh. Tomlin has gone 3-3 or better in AFC North games every year except for 2009 (2-4).
There are also winnable home games where the defense could eat well against the Titans, Packers, Cardinals, and Patriots. The Steelers could get two favorable rookie coaches and quarterbacks on the road in Houston and Indianapolis. Steal a game against the Rams, Jaguars, or Raiders, and that could still be 9-8 again even if the Steelers go 2-4 in the division.
The playoffs may not work out again for this team, but over 8.5 wins should be a solid pick and the best bet. You may also find more value in the Steelers crashing the Brock Purdy return party in Week 1 by beating the 49ers (the moneyline is +138 at FanDuel) instead of betting on Pittsburgh to make the playoffs (+128 at FanDuel). Pittsburgh has upset a Super Bowl contender in Week 1 the last two years in Buffalo and Cincinnati.
NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins (-150 at FanDuel)
