By Scott Kascmar
The 2022 NBA Draft is here. This class has been lauded as an impressive one with three legitimate talents who have an argument to go No. 1 overall. As we all know, it’s the depth that will determine a certain class. The 2022 class appears to be well-set to produce contributors well into the lottery.
We’ve scoured the best sources for information from around the most trusted outlets, scouted each of the top prospects, and found the best landing spots for each skill set. NBA Draft props can be an excellent way to fill your bankroll if you’re taking calculated risks.
Let’s jump into our top 10 prop picks for Thursday night!
No. 1 Overall Pick: Jabari Smith Jr. (-250)
My favorite scorer in this draft is Jabari Smith Jr. The sweet-shooting wing has been heavily linked to Orlando at No. 1 over the last week. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony recently said the expectation is for Smith to go No. 1, Chet Holmgren No. 2, and Paolo Banchero at No. 3 since each of the prospects are pushing for these landing spots.
Smith has been the only prospect of the three Orlando has been able to get in for a workout. He will be the pick. And it makes sense for Orlando to take a high-end scorer over Holmgren considering their roster lacks efficient scorers off the dribble.
This pick is as close to a lock as we’ll find this year. Banchero makes sense from a roster standpoint as well but the Magic haven’t been able to get him inside the building. We’re following the buzz on this selection.
No. 2 Overall Pick: Chet Holmgren (-220)
I’m not the biggest fan of Chet Holmgren’s but he would mesh well with the Oklahoma City core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. The big man had a rough March Madness and has slower feet on defensive rotations than what’s ideal, but he’s smart and ends up in decent position well. His offensive impact should be greater as his frame adds bulk to it.
The buzz has been that Oklahoma City is deciding between Holmgren and Banchero but they prefer adding the big man with more length to help anchor their defense. Banchero isn’t a good enough value to sprinkle more than one unit on.
No. 3 Overall Pick: Paolo Banchero (-350)
The Houston Rockets are said to love Banchero, and Banchero wants to play with Jalen Green. Much like how picking third in a top-heavy draft worked out for Cleveland last year with Evan Mobley, Houston will benefit this year even if others get “higher-rated” prospects. Banchero is a great fit in today’s NBA.
The 6’10” forward can do it all, making him an easy fit into the Rockets’ rebuild. He’s a good passer, scorer, and willing defender. Sure, Houston might want to consider taking Jaden Ivey as a backcourt star next to Green, but that’s not what the insiders have said will happen.
Jaden Ivey – Knicks’ first pick (+350)
After the Top 3, it has been more or less fait accompli for months that Jaden Ivey, the dynamic slashing guard from Purdue, would be the fourth pick. But, when Sacramento landed fourth in the draft lottery, some skepticism emerged.
The Kings already have De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell, and recently traded away Tyrese Haliburton, seemingly settling on their backcourt of the future.
It’s unsurprising, then, that the Kings have been involved with trade talks around the number four pick with the New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, and Oklahoma City Thunder reportedly interested.
The bet here is that Ivey finds his way to New York. Like Banchero, odds on Ivey have seen massive movement in the last two days, with Ivey going from a +800 to be New York’s first pick all the way to +350, making him the current favorite among potential Knicks selections.
Reporting from Ian Begley notes that the Knicks have the goods to trade for Ivey and have been constructing offers including multiple first-round picks to make it happen. That the movement on the board from +800 to +350 prefigured any public reporting of negotiations suggests to me that a deal might be close.
Now, it’s possible another team like OKC steps in to beat their offer, but at +350 I still love this prop.
AJ Griffin – Top-10 pick (+200)
Following AJ Griffin’s projected draft position has been enough to make one dizzy. He was once considered co-favorites with Ivey to the No.4 overall pick, and then for a time after that was a surefire bet to follow him at fifth. Now, seemingly just as many boards have him falling out of the Top 10 entirely.
For those unfamiliar with Griffin’s game, he’s a 6-foot-6 small forward with a 7-foot wingspan and is arguably the best shooter in the draft. Griffin didn’t just knock down 44.7% of his threes on open catch and shoots either, he showed great diversity with his shot, coming off screens, and even some fine work off the bounce.
He’s the prototypical big, shooting wing, that in theory, every NBA team wants. But, Griffin has seen his stock steadily drop after a series of lower-body injuries appear to have sapped him of mobility. That lower mobility translated to some rough defensive outings.
That said, Griffin falling outside the Top 10 is just too far. Numerous consensus mock drafts, which compile and average mocks from different sources to project draft positioning, have AJ Griffin most likely to go at nine.
Some team is going to bet that those injuries have been the reason for Griffin’s defensive lapses and that when healthy, he’ll get to passable on that end.
The Spurs and Wizards both seem like potential landing spots for him, at nine and ten respectively, and getting +200 on this is too good to pass up.
Keegan Murray draft position, Under 5.5 (-260)
You’re not going to get rich of these odds, but this one is a lock. He isn’t going to be taken in the top three, but there’s an outside shot that Murray is selected fourth overall by the Kings—he recently had dinner with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. If Sacramento opts elsewhere, Murray’s floor is at No. 5 and the Detroit Pistons.
He’d be a perfect complement to Cade Cunningham and could replace Jerami Grant, who should be dealt this offseason. They’re short-ish odds, but this is the safest bet you can make among the non -1000s odds.
Christian Braun to be drafted Round 1 (+300)
Now let’s find some value. Braun isn’t the most physically imposing player in this year’s class, but his solid defensive attributes, his 38% shooting from deep last season, and his versatility in all aspects of the game make him an intriguing prospect.
Wings matter in today’s NBA, and Braun brings a ton to the table. In a class that isn’t all that deep, Braun should be selected in the top 30 picks.
Jeremy Sochan draft position, Over 11.5 (-150)
He’s 19 years old, an outstanding defender, and he impacts the game in just about every way. There’s plenty of potential here, but we’re not sure it makes him a top-11 pick. If we lock in these eight as players who will go ahead of him (Banchero, Holmgren, Smith, Ivey, Murray, Sharpe, Mathurin, Daniels), that leaves just three spots open for him to hit on this prop.
We think players like Johnny Davis, Jalen Duren, AJ Griffin, and Ochai Agbaji could all go before him. Sochan won’t have to wait long, but he’s more a back-end Lottery talent here.
Ousmane Dieng, Under 13.5 (-120)
The New Zealand Breakers prospect has climbed draft boards in recent weeks, so much so that his Over/Under is at the end of the lottery, and odds for him to go inside the top 10 are far from long. He’s been linked to the New Orleans Pelicans (who pick eighth), San Antonio Spurs (who pick ninth), and Oklahoma City Thunder (who pick 12th)
The Washington Wizards and New York Knicks (who pick 10th and 11th, respectively) have made it no secret that they want to trade for a point guard, so it’s tough to predict who will be making the call at those spots if and when it’s time to select Dieng.
Dieng’s O/U is set at 13.5. He’s more or less locked into a lottery selection (top 14), so my money’s on the Under. The only real danger is that he’s a reported draft target of the Cleveland Cavaliers, who own the 14th pick.
You can also get Dieng to go in the top 10 at +275 at certain books. We’ll grab the under and sprinkle action on the top-10.
Nikola Jovic, Under 20.5 (-120)
Jovic is another international player whose star is on the rise, and though most mocks have him being drafted around pick No. 20, he could hear his name called right after the lottery in the 15 to 19 range.
The Serbian projects as a point forward in the NBA, using his height to make passes over small defenders. He showed he can shoot the 3-pointer, and his length gives him an ideal set of skills to be a quality 3-and-D player at the next level.
The Houston Rockets reportedly have their eye on Jovic, and they pick 17th and 26th. It wouldn’t be unrealistic for the team to use No. 17 or even package the picks and move up to land its guy if it really likes what it sees. The Spurs and Nuggets pick 20th and 21st respectively, and Jovic impressed during his visit to Denver. The Nuggets also have ammunition to move up a spot in the form of the No. 30 pick.
