There are some great matchups on this week’s slate of NFL games. Across the board, there are decent plays on offer, and I’ve picked the three best that I believe will help us win big on Sunday.
Here’s my three-play parlay for Week 6, which comes in at +750: turning your $10 into $75.
Jacksonville Jaguars ATS +2
The Jags have the Colts’ number in this rivalry. Just like the Houston Texans own Jacksonville, the Jags always seem to find a way to beat Indianapolis. In Week 2 Jacksonville won 24-0 over the Colts and has won each of the last two meetings by at least 15 points.
The Jags only won three games all season last year, but they managed to beat Indy 26-11. The Jaguars have had three shutouts against the Colts since 2017 but haven’t shut out any other NFL team since 2006. The Colts have been a real Jekyll and Hyde team in games this season, allowing 71 points in the first half of games (tied for 25th in the NFL) but just 23 points after halftime (second-best in the league).
Trevor Lawrence threw two interceptions in the Jags’ loss to the Texans last week, he’s now thrown more picks (21) than touchdowns (20). He’ll want to rectify that on Sunday.
Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD
The New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns love to run the ball, so expect this game to be over in a flash. With Damien Harris out, Rhamondre Stevenson looks set to have a big day. He rushed for 161 yards in last week’s win over the Lions. The Browns’ rushing defense is ranked 28th in yards given up and 28th in points conceded.
Bill Belichick will focus on Cleveland’s weak spot and attack it. Since 2001, the Patriots are 8-1 against the Browns. Between teams currently in the same conference, only the San Francisco 49ers against the Detroit Lions (9-1) have a better record against a single opponent in that span. Stevenson could be the biggest threat to Cleveland on Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks Over 50.5
These are two of the nine teams that have allowed opposing quarterbacks to have a cumulative QB rating of at least 100. The Seahawks have an opponent QB rating of 106.6, the second worst in the league (Las Vegas, 106.7). Arizona’s 101.1 mark is the seventh worst.
The Seahawks have given up more yards on defense than any other team in the league. They’re second last in points conceded. Seattle does rank seventh in points scored on offense, while the Cardinals lead the league in offensive plays, pass attempts and pass completions. The Seahawks fell to the Saints, 39-32, in New Orleans last week. Since 2008, the Seahawks are now 40-4 when scoring at least 32 points – half of those losses have come against the Cardinals (39-32 in 2015, 37-34 in 2020).
The Over seems a safe play this weekend.
