By Anthony Wootton
We’re into Week 4 of the NFL season, which would have traditionally been the quarter point of the campaign. Teams are still trying to figure things out and find their identities, but they’re showing us enough, along with the metrics, to help us make informed betting decisions.
Here’s my three-play parlay that comes in at +845, which could turn your $10 into $85.
Best Week 4 NFL Parlay
Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants Under 39.5 (-110)
The Giants have been held under 30 points in 31 consecutive games, which is 15 games longer than the next team with that active streak (Washington – 16). The Bears completed eight passes in their 23-20 win over the Texans last week, their third consecutive game with eight or fewer completions.
Chicago is the first team in 40 years to start the season with three straight games of fewer than nine completions. The Giants have been a bottom-five pass offense this year, ranking third-worst with 162.3 passing yards per contest. The Bears rank worst in passing yards per game (78.3), and their 265 total yards per game is dead last in the league.
Don’t expect many points in this contest, take the Under.
Denver Broncos ATS +2.5 (-110)
The Raiders lost to the Titans, 24-22, last Sunday, and are now 0-3 to start the season for the third time in 15 years. They’re just the second team this century to begin a season with three losses by six points or fewer. No team has had four such losses in the past 70 years.
Despite scoring 43 points this season, Denver is 2-1. Over his last 10 games, Russell Wilson has four games with zero touchdown passes, including last week against the 49ers. He had just four such games in his previous 68. Both of these teams look bad, but Denver’s defense is legit, allowing 12.0 points per game (2nd in the league), 170 passing yards (3rd) and 81.3 rushing yards (6th).
Vegas is giving up 25.7 points per game, which ranks 24th. It’ll be a close one, but 2.5 points feels like a gimme.
Rashaad Penny anytime TD (+160)
No team has given up more rushing touchdowns this season than the Detroit Lions (7). Only four teams have given up more rushing yards than the Lions’ 427. They’ve conceded a touchdown to running backs in each of their games so far this campaign. Detroit’s offense has scored 93 points this season, most in the NFL through three games, while Seattle’s offense has scored 40 points this season, tied for the fewest.
The Lions’ defense has also given up 93 points. Penny’s workload increased against the Falcons last week, expect him to get more against a leaky Lions defense. It’s a prime spot for him to get his first touchdown of the season.
