By Andrew Doherty
The NFC West was arguably the most competitive division in the NFL in 2021, with three of four teams hitting double-digit wins and reaching the playoffs. Should we expect more of the same in 2022? Or is this a division that’s bound to see some regression this season? Let’s take a look.
2021 record: 11-6
2022 win total: 8.5
Division odds: +400
Super Bowl odds: +4000
It’s certainly been an interesting off-season in Arizona. First came the uncertainty surrounding franchise quarterback Kyler Murray’s future with the team. After a contract extension was eventually in place, it leaked to the public that the deal contained a clause requiring Murray to study film independently for a minimum of four hours per week. Once those details became public knowledge, the team reportedly removed the clause from Murray’s contract after the ensuing backlash and assumptions made by many regarding Murray’s commitment and work ethic.
While the Kyler Murray situation had most of the headlines, it wasn’t the only noteworthy storyline for the Cardinals this off-season. The departure of star pass rusher Chandler Jones is a massive loss for Arizona’s defense. The Cardinals will also be without Kyler Murray’s favorite target to start the season, as All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins serves a six-game suspension. Arizona traded for wide receiver Marquise Brown, Murray’s old running mate from his college days, in an effort to offset the loss of Hopkins to start the year.
Despite creating the 8th most turnovers in the league in 2021, I’m not sold on the Cardinals defense in 2022. Turnover rates tend to be among the most volatile metrics from year to year. The high number of turnovers also masked what was an average unit at best, especially in the secondary. I see Arizona’s defense as a prime candidate for regression in 2022.
Best bet
Under 8.5 wins: The Cardinals have the 9th toughest schedule in the league this year based on opponent win totals and simply don’t have the pieces on defense to slow down opposing offenses. In a tough NFC West, it’s difficult to see them hitting 9 wins this season.
2021 record: 12-5
2022 win total: 10.5
Division odds: +130
Super Bowl odds: +1200
The reigning Super Bowl champs haven’t had the most ideal start to their 2022 season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, who underwent off-season surgery to relieve pain in his elbow, has been limited throughout training camp due to lingering irritation months after the surgery. The issue caused Stafford to miss OTA’s and minicamp as well. Both Stafford and head coach Sean McVay has downplayed the injury publicly, but it’s likely this is an issue that will need to be managed all season long.
Despite the concerns, a healthy Matthew Stafford in his second year in Sean McVay’s system is a force to be reckoned with. It’s hard to imagine they could be better than they were in 2021, but increased chemistry with wide receiver Cooper Kupp is a very real possibility in year two. The Rams also added a premier red zone threat and contested-catch specialist in Allen Robinson, who we should fully expect to bounce back from a disappointing 2021 campaign.
On defense, game-wrecker Aaron Donald returns with a massive new contract after mulling retirement in the off-season. The Rams swapped out pass rusher Von Miller for linebacker Bobby Wagner, and still have star cornerback Jalen Ramsey lurking in coverage. Much like they did in 2021, the Rams have chosen star power and a top heavy roster over depth. This strategy worked to perfection last season, but will they be so lucky with avoiding injuries to their stars in 2022? History says we shouldn’t count on it.
Best bets
Rams under 10.5 wins: The Rams have the 2nd toughest schedule in the league based on opponent win totals and very little depth behind their top heavy roster. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to avoid injuries the way they did in 2021, and their lack of depth will be exposed. Factor in the ongoing elbow issue for Matt Stafford and the under becomes the obvious choice.
Allen Robinson over 7.5 touchdowns: The Rams threw the ball 65.8% of the time when inside the five-yard line in 2021, the highest mark in the league. With all the added attention fellow wideout Cooper Kupp will receive this year, Robinson will see plenty of one on one opportunities in the red zone on a high-scoring offense that loves to throw close to the goal line. Robinson should hit double-digit touchdowns in 2022.
2021 record: 10-7
2022 win total: 10
Division odds: +150
Super Bowl odds: +1600
The Trey Lance era has officially begun in San Francisco. The 49ers traded multiple first-round picks to trade up to the third overall pick of the 2021 draft to select the dual-threat QB, and are finally set to see some returns on that investment in 2022.
Despite having a first-year starter under center, there’s plenty of reason for optimism for the 49ers 2022 outlook. San Francisco runs a very quarterback-friendly passing scheme and features a strong running game for Lance to lean on if needed. Lance’s ability as a dual-threat is likely to enhance the run game even further. Surrounded by dynamic run-after-catch playmakers in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, Lance can be successful even as a game manager. The 49ers have a very soft schedule to start the year and playing their first two games against the Bears and Seahawks will allow Lance some time to get acclimated without costing his team in the win/loss columns.
Highlighted by sack machine Nick Bosa, the 49ers defensive line is among the best in the league when healthy. They finished 2021 with 48 total sacks, which was fifth-best in the league. While the secondary struggled to create turnovers, San Francisco’s defense was still able to secure a top ten finish in points allowed per game last year.
Best bet
49ers to win the division: With the 13th softest schedule in the league based on opponent win totals and a roster that’s built to win now, +150 odds are too good to pass up.
2021 record: 7-10
2022 win total: 5.5
Division odds: +2000
Super Bowl odds: +1500
The Seahawks decided to go into a full rebuild when they made the decision to trade franchise quarterback Russell Wilson last off-season. Seattle’s roster has very little talent outside a few big names and will likely field multiple position groups that are bottom five in the league. Geno Smith has been named the starter at quarterback for now after beating out Drew Lock, but neither option offers much appeal or upside.
While they’ll never admit it publicly, 2022 is likely a tank year for Seattle with the upcoming draft class of quarterbacks looking like it will feature several franchise-type prospects. In year one of a rebuild, there isn’t much to be excited about with the Seahawks this year.
Best bet
Under 5.5 wins: With the 11th most challenging schedule in the league based on opponent win totals and Geno Smith playing quarterback on a roster with tons of holes, I simply don’t see a path to the Seahawks winning six or more games.
Tyler Lockett under 850.5 receiving yards: With Russell Wilson, Lockett led the league on yards gained on targets of at least 20 yards downfield, gaining 61% of his yardage on these plays. In 2022, he will see a significant downgrade in deep ball accuracy regardless of whether it’s Geno Smith or Drew Lock throwing him the ball. This under should cash easily.
