By Scott Kacsmar
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to win the NFC South in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history. But the Saints have won all four regular-season meetings with Tom Brady’s new team, and they remain the best challenger in a division hoping for healthy seasons from Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas, and redemption seasons from quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Marcus Mariota.
We continue our NFL season preview series with the NFC South.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 2021 records: 13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS
- 2022 regular season wins: over/under 11.5 wins
- Odds to win the NFC South: -270
- Odds to win the Super Bowl: +750 (No. 2 at FanDuel)
Has any team ever been more known for retirements than the 2022 Buccaneers?
- Guard Ali Marpet retired after seven seasons in February.
- Quarterback Tom Brady retired, then changed his mind 40 days later and is back for a 23rd season at 45 years old.
- Head coach Bruce Arians retired well after the coaching cycle ended, but the team was able to promote defensive coordinator Todd Bowles in his place.
- Tight end Rob Gronkowski retired for the second time, but you can bet Brady will be the first one to call him if the team needs some help late in the season.
You could say Brady never wanted to retire in the first place, especially after becoming the second quarterback in history to throw over 700 passes in a season after he led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns at age 44.
Sean McVay’s Rams have been kryptonite to these Buccaneers with three straight wins over them, but no team has repeated as Super Bowl champions since Brady’s Patriots in 2003-04. Tampa Bay’s own championship defense was shortsighted because the team tried to do it with the same roster, which does not work so well when Antonio Brown walks off the field during a game, Chris Godwin tears his ACL in December, and right tackle Tristan Wirfs was injured in the playoffs.
During those 40 days of retirement, Brady likely saw an NFC ripe for the taking with Tampa Bay still having one of the best, most balanced rosters in the league.
- Packers traded Davante Adams to the Raiders.
- Cowboys lost Amari Cooper (and later Tyron Smith to injury).
- Sean Payton retired in New Orleans.
- Every Arizona headline is problematic.
- Russell Wilson left Seattle for Denver and Geno Smith is going to start.
- Matt Ryan left Atlanta for Indy while Carson Wentz is back in the NFC East.
- Always count on Kirk Cousins to stay around .500 in Minnesota.
- Always count on Kyle Shanahan to blow a huge lead in San Francisco.
Maybe the Buccaneers take a step back with Bowles no longer having Arians as his mentor, and the loss of Gronk as a security blanket is big. But this team should still contend for the No. 1 seed, and if it can avoid the Rams in the playoffs, then for all we know they could be right back in the Super Bowl.
Best bets for Tampa Bay
Over 11.5 wins (+125 at FanDuel): As always, check the schedule. The Buccaneers are playing 10 games against teams that had a winning record last year, but the Cowboys have big injuries going into Week 1, the Saints lost Sean Payton, the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger, the Packers lost Davante Adams, the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill, the 49ers are going with wild card Trey Lance, and they play the Cardinals on Christmas when that team is usually on the decline.
The Buccaneers also get to host the Chiefs, Packers, Ravens, Rams, and Bengals instead of playing them on the road. They get the Browns in the final game before Deshaun Watson’s suspension ends. Finally, they should be able to sweep the Falcons and Panthers in the division and avoid another sweep by the Saints. This team should win 12 games.
Buccaneers to win Super Bowl 57 (+750 at FanDuel): Brady has been able to win the Super Bowl every other year since 2014. That puts him on schedule to be back this year, and why else would he return at 45 if he didn’t believe this team still had a great shot in the weaker conference? If it takes an eighth ring at 45 to send him away for good, then maybe we should just let it happen and profit from it.
New Orleans Saints
- 2021 records: 9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS
- 2022 regular season wins: over/under 8.5 wins
- Odds to win the NFC South: +300
- Odds to win the Super Bowl: +4000 (Tied-No. 17 at FanDuel)
We knew the Saints would look a lot different after prolific quarterback Drew Brees retired and wide receiver Michael Thomas missed the whole season with injury. But the Saints gave us a season too weird for words:
- The Saints started 5-2, lost five games in a row, then finished 4-1 with the only loss being that miserable Ian Book start against Miami.
- New Orleans destroyed Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, holding them to a combined three points in two games away from the Superdome, but was shredded by Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold in losses.
- Prolific passer Jameis Winston was averaging 25.2 pass attempts and 185.7 passing yards per game in six full starts before tearing his ACL. When he was in Tampa Bay, Winston averaged 35.4 passes and 274.1 passing yards per game.
- New Orleans completed another sweep of Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, including a 9-0 shutout, and despite playing three different quarterbacks in those games.
- Alvin Kamara had the worst season of his career, and the Saints did not have any receiver break 700 receiving yards.
The Saints had a plan to limit Winston’s mistakes by limiting his attempts, and the defense was going to lead the team for a change. This worked under Sean Payton’s coordination, but the show belongs to defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who was promoted to Payton’s spot after he retired. Allen was 8-28 (.222) as head coach of the Raiders in 2012-14 before he was fired in his third season.
Clearly, Allen is working with a better roster in New Orleans, but it is still a team that is hard to figure out. Will Winston and Thomas be a great connection? Brees’ accuracy and efficiency had a lot to do with that pairing being lethal as Thomas is no Mike Evans down the field. Is Kamara going to rebound after some off-field issues and a career-low 3.7 yards per carry last year? The offensive line does not look as strong as past years.
The defense should still be fine with Allen in town, but notice how quickly the biggest questions in New Orleans turn to the offense after losing two of the best to ever do it in Brees and Payton.
Best bets for New Orleans
Under 8.5 wins (-105 at BetMGM): Losing a legendary quarterback and one of the best head coaches in the league in back-to-back years would sink most teams. Replacing them with Jameis Winston and Dennis Allen does not inspire much confidence either, so I am fading the Saints from having another winning record. The Tampa Bay sweep will not happen for the fourth year in a row, and that alone might be enough with a tough schedule to keep the Saints at no better than 8-9.
Carolina Panthers
- 2021 records: 5-12 SU, 5-12 ATS
- 2022 regular season wins: over/under 6.5 wins
- Odds to win the NFC South: +1500
- Odds to win the Super Bowl: +10000 (Tied-No. 25 at FanDuel)
The Panthers are hoping to break a three-year streak of winning just five games a season. They have a great chance to start 1-0 with new quarterback Baker Mayfield looking to stick it to the Cleveland Browns.
Mayfield may even be taking over a better offense than he had in Cleveland if running back Christian McCaffrey, a better receiver than Nick Chubb, can stay healthy. D.J. Moore has also been a very productive wide receiver despite underwhelming quarterback play in Carolina.
The problem here is we have evidence that Matt Rhule may not be cut out for head coach in the NFL. In two seasons with the Panthers, his teams are 10-23 and have developed some disturbing patterns of play, which Mayfield is unlikely to improve much:
- Carolina is 0-13 at fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive opportunities since 2020.
- Mayfield just had a season with Cleveland where the team was 0-6 at game-winning drive opportunities with him.
- Carolina is 1-23 when allowing 17 or more points in a game, including an 0-12 record last year.
- Mayfield is 8-24 (.250) when this team allows at least 24 points, and he has lost three starts where the Browns allowed fewer than 17 points, including two games in 2021.
Basically, for Rhule to win a game his team has to be leading early and the defense has to dominate. Mayfield will be an upgrade over Sam Darnold, but this does not look like a playoff team yet.
Best bets for Carolina
Over 6.5 wins (+105 at FanDuel): It feels like eons ago when the Panthers were 3-0 last September, but that team was fool’s gold that finished 5-12. This team is unlikely to trick anyone this year, but the early schedule could setup another good start, and the decline of the Falcons could lead to an easy sweep in the division. I like the Panthers to finish 7-10 and just hit the over. If things go worse than that, then Rhule is getting fired.
Christian McCaffrey Over 875.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at FanDuel): This number looks like stealing to me. Obviously, there is an injury concern here with McCaffrey missing 13 games in 2020 and 10 games in 2021. He rushed for 667 yards combined since the pandemic started. But McCaffrey missed zero games in his first three seasons. The best way to play offense with Baker Mayfield is to feed the running back a la Nick Chubb in Cleveland. Maybe CMC’s days of leading the league in yards from scrimmage like he did in 2019 are over, but I love him staying healthy enough to rush for over 875.5 yards this year. That is just 51.5 yards per game in a 17-game season.
Atlanta Falcons
- 2021 records: 7-10 SU, 6-10-1 ATS
- 2022 regular season wins: over/under 4.5 wins
- Odds to win the NFC South: +3000
- Odds to win the Super Bowl: +25000 (No. 31 at FanDuel)
No team in the NFC has a lower projected win total than the Falcons, who traded Matt Ryan to the Colts after 14 years of establishing himself as the best quarterback in franchise history.
In his final season with the team, Ryan struggled to move an offense that lost Julio Jones and then lost Calvin Ridley after five games. The cupboard is rather bare for new quarterback Marcus Mariota as he attempts to find his groove as a starter under head coach Arthur Smith, who failed to produce with Mariota as his quarterback in Tennessee in 2019.
While the Falcons won seven games in Smith’s rookie season last year, this team had the worst scoring differential (minus-146 points) in NFL history for a seven-win team. The Falcons beat teams who won 31.5% of their games, the weakest strength of victory in the NFL.
Mariota was a sack machine in Tennessee, which is a big reason why this does not feel like a good spot for him to thrive as Atlanta’s offensive line is not good. The weapons are also still an issue with Ridley receiving a ridiculous year-long suspension for placing bets on his team to win in a game he did not play last season. Rookie wide receiver Drake London was the first wide receiver off the board in a deep class, but he has not been practicing since getting injured in the first preseason game.
Defensively, the Falcons have a standout corner in A.J. Terrell, but this pass rush produced 18 sacks in 17 games last year. It is hard to see where the pressure is going to come from this year, so this could still be a struggling unit to go along with a hampered offense.
Best bets for Atlanta
Under 4.5 wins (+100 at FanDuel): I am selling the Mariota-Smith connection as this should be the worst team in the NFC South this year. Ryan’s poise at the end of games where he led multiple game-winning drives after the defense blew the lead, an Atlanta tradition, will be missed with Mariota taking over. Even games that appear most winnable, such as Seattle and Cleveland without Deshaun Watson, are going to be dog fights for this team.
