NFC North Betting Preview: Will There Be a New King of the North?

By Anthony Wootton

The NFC North is very much a division in transition this season. The Green Bay Packers have been kings of the north for each of the past three seasons, going over on the win total on each occasion. The Detroit Lions, however, have been the worst team in the division each of the last four seasons, and haven’t won more than six games in a single campaign since 2017 when they finished runners-up with nine wins.

The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have new head coaches, though while things appear to be trending upwards for the Lions, the Bears are being widely tipped to finish with the worst record in the league in 2022.

Here we preview each team and look at the best prop plays for the new NFL season.

Green Bay Packers (+1200 to win Super Bowl LVII via FanDuel)

Back-to-back reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers, extended his future as quarterback for Green Bay for a further three years this offseason. Securing one of the best quarterbacks the sport has ever seen will breathe optimism to a fanbase that has seen their team dominate the NFC in each of the last three seasons, but stumble when it mattered most.

As buoyed as Packers fans were by the extension of Rodgers, they will no doubt be concerned about who he’s throwing the football to. Star wide receiver, Davante Adams, left in a shock trade to the Las Vegas Raiders in March. Adams had a team-high 123 receptions for 1553 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. He averaged 97.1 yards per game. In the whole of the NFL, only Cooper Kupp, had more receptions (145) than Adams.

To put it in perspective for Rodgers and the Packers, running back Aaron Jones had the next most receptions last season (52), while wide receiver Allen Lazard had the second-highest receiving yards at 513.

Number 12 is so good he raises the game of everyone around him. It’s unreasonable to expect 1500 yards from Green Bay’s young receiving corps, but Rodgers excels at reading the fielding and finding the right target.

He’s also got a solid backfield behind him, in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Dillon led the team in rushing last season with 803 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jones, who played two fewer games, had 799 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns.

If you take care of your division, then you’re booking your ticket to the playoffs. Green Bay’s defense, led by linebackers Rashan Gary and De’Vondre Campbell will be a threat to all opposing offenses. They combined for 128 tackles and 11.5 sacks last year, backed up by safety Adrian Amos and Rasul Douglas in the secondary.

Best Packers Props

Win Total O/U 10.5

The Packers are -160 to top their win total this year. They haven’t won fewer than 13 games since 2018. Some of their rivals in the North appear stronger, but there are others who look likely to regress. The talent on Green Bay’s roster is superior to their division rivals, and Rodgers is one of the few elite quarterbacks in the league. He’s 19-9 against the spread over the past three years. So, take the over, and also back them at -155 for the division.

A.J. Dillon rushing yards O/U 749.5

Green Bay will be a more run-heavy team this year. Dillon’s workload increased significantly last season from his rookie year in 2020. He went from 46 rush attempts in his first year to 187 in 2021. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If his workload is similar this season, he will be on course for over 840 yards. He’s proven to be an effective back and had the fourth-most receiving yards on the team last year. The Packers utilized their two backs with Davante Adams in their team last season. Take the Over for Dillon at -115 via BetMGM.

Minnesota Vikings (+4000 to win Super Bowl LVII via FanDuel)

The Vikings have missed out on the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, losing nine games in both campaigns. Last year was tumultuous for the franchise before the season even began, with Kirk Cousins’s vaccination status and head coach, Mike Zimmer, publicly displaying his frustration with his quarterback and other teammates around their Covid stance.

They started the season 0-2, but never managed a winning streak of more than two games. Teams never blew them out, either. Of their nine losses, only was by more than a score (at the Packers in Week 17).

On offense, Kirk Cousins had his second-straight season of throwing over 4000 yards. In his career as a starter, Cousins only has one season under 4000 yards passing, which was in 2019 when he made less than 16 starts and threw for 3,603 yards.

Last year, the Vikings had a 1,100-yard rusher in Dalvin Cook, and a 1,600-yard receiver in Justin Jefferson. Only Cooper Kupp had more receiving yards in the league than Jefferson in 2021. Despite that firepower, Minnesota ranked in the middle of the pack on offense, averaging 25 points per game. On defense, they gave up an average of 25.1 points per game, which explains their close losses.

They parted ways with Zimmer, their defensive-minded head coach, this offseason. His replacement is former Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator, Kevin O’Connell. Their key players on offense and defense return. Pass rusher Danielle Hunter is healthy and poses a threat opposite Za’Darius Smith on the defensive line.

Best Vikings Props

Win Total O/U 9.5

As improved as the Vikings will be on offense, take the Under at -110. They will certainly be in games, just like last season, but the inconsistency with their quarterback is a big concern. He’ll give them another 4,000+ yard season and 30+ touchdowns, but it’s the mental blocks that cost him and the team. It’s difficult to see him leading them to 10 wins.

Justin Jefferson 10+ receiving touchdowns

Jefferson is a stud. The wide receiver had 1,400 receiving yards off 88 receptions and 7 touchdowns in his rookie season in 2020. Remember, that year there were no OTAs or mini camps because of Covid. He followed that production up last year with 1,616 receiving yards off 108 receptions and 10 touchdowns. He’s got Cooper Kupp’s OC from last season as his head coach, and he’s coming into his third season in the league, so the game will have slowed down for him even more. Back him for 10+ regular season touchdowns at +130 via FanDuel.

Chicago Bears (+12000 to win Super Bowl LVII via FanDuel)

You’ve got to feel for quarterback Justin Fields. He’s a young player with so much potential, but his team has done nothing to protect him. In his 12 games as the starter, he’s been sacked 36. Coming into 2022 he’s got two second-year tackles as his anchors on the offensive line. If you’re a quarterback, you can’t throw on your back!

The Bears had six wins last season. They appeared to have done very little this offseason to improve their roster. On offense, they lost wide receiver Allen Robinson and replaced him with Dante Pettis and N’Keal Harry, who left their previous fanbases thinking “what if?”

There’s a new head coach at Chicago. Matt Eberflus, former defensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts, takes over from Matt Nagy. Eberflus finds himself hindered with the loss of key defensive personnel. Akiem Hicks has gone, Khalil Mack was traded to the Los Angeles Chargers, and lead tackler, Roquan Smith, has agreed to end his pay dispute and play out the final year of his rookie contract.

Best Bears Props

Win Total O/U 5.5

Chicago’s receiving corps is as concerning as their offensive line. Take away third-year wide receiver, Darnell Mooney, and Fields has no legitimate threat to throw to. Mooney caught 81 passes for over 1,000 yards last season, but only managed 4 touchdowns. The next best receiver for the Bears was tight end Cole Kmet, who had 60 receptions for 612 yards on no score. The Bears had 16 receiving touchdowns combined last season. Cooper Kupp equalled that tally himself. That inefficient offense looks to have got worse, so back the Under (5.5) at +125 via FanDuel.

Lowest Scoring Team

Considering all we know about the Bears and their offense, let’s take them at +600 to be the lowest scoring team in the NFL in 2022.

Detroit Lions (+10000 to win Super Bowl LVII via FanDuel)

Despite being a three-win team, the Lions showed heart last season. They’re building something in Motor City, which has been evident on the current series of Hard Knocks. It’s hard not to root for head coach Dan Campbell. Detroit might not be the most talented roster in the league, but Campbell will have them competing in every game.

The team could have moved on from quarterback Jared Goff this offseason and chose to stick with the vet. He threw for 3,245 yards and 19 touchdowns on a bad team last year. Goff had the heart and leadership qualities that matched his head coach.

He’s got an exciting second-year wide receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who found his feet at the back end of last season. St. Brown had 506 of his 912 total receiving yards through weeks 13-18, catching 5 touchdowns in that span.

In the backfield, Goff has D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, who both rushed for over 600 yards, combining for 8 touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, their defense looks improved this preseason. They ranked 28th in the league on run defense, which defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has said is a part of the game they’ve focused on this summer.

Best Lions Props

Lions’ Exact Division Position

As much as the Lions have improved, and they’ll certainly be in games, the strength of their roster will hinder them when the inevitable injuries hit. The Packers remain the team to catch in the North and, while the Vikings are in touching distance for Detroit, I think Minnesota’s offense will be better. The Lions will improve to third in the division, they’re +170 for that placing at FanDuel.

Amon-Ra St. Brown +5.5 receiving touchdowns

St. Brown had an exciting end to his rookie season, catching 5 touchdowns in the final 6 games. He has another offseason working with Jared Goff, and he’s another year wiser in the league. He’s +100 with DraftKings to have over 5.5 receiving touchdowns in the regular season, which is a great value pick.