By Scott Kacsmar
Looking to end the longest playoff drought in team history (12 seasons), the New York Jets have gone all in on Aaron Rodgers, the four-time MVP and future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback.
Most of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history have moved on to another team late in their careers. The gamble here is Rodgers will turn 40 in December and is coming off the worst season of his career in Green Bay. He also has been to one Super Bowl in his career back in 2010, which happens to be the last time the Jets were in the playoffs.
The storylines almost write themselves.
- Rodgers will attempt to give the Jets their first 4,000-yard passer since they had the first one in pro football history with Joe Namath back in 1967.
- The Jets have won 12 games in a season once in team history when they were 12-4 in 1998. Rodgers just recently had a 13-3 record in three straight seasons for Green Bay in 2019-21.
- Rodgers is following in former teammate Brett Favre’s footsteps by leaving the Packers and going to the Jets as Favre did in 2008. The Jets were 8-3 under Favre, but after knocking off a 10-0 Titans team, the Jets finished 1-4 and missed the playoffs as Favre struggled through an injury with 2 TD, 9 INT, and a 55.2 passer rating.
Will history be made or repeated? The Jets, with over/under 9.5 wins, are No. 5 in the best AFC odds for appearing in the Super Bowl (+1000 at FanDuel). The Jets (+250 at FanDuel) are still behind Buffalo in the odds to win the AFC East, but they are favored to make the playoffs this year.
We look back at the 2022 season that saw quarterback play spoil an outstanding draft class for the Jets, the key offseason changes, the significant impact of the schedule, and what the best Jets bets are for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: Imagine If They Had a Quarterback
This can change down the road, but for 2022, the Jets undeniably had the best draft class in the NFL. Corner Sauce Gardner was already named a first-team All-Pro as a rookie, and he won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award after leading the NFL with 20 passes defensed. He only allowed 5.3 yards per target in coverage according to Pro Football Reference, and corner is usually one of the hardest positions to excel at right away.
The Jets also cleaned up on the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson won it after catching 83 passes for 1,103 yards and 4 touchdowns. He had 100-yard receiving games with three different starting quarterbacks. If Wilson did not win the award, running back Breece Hall may have been the winner had a torn ACL not ended his season early.
But despite moving from No. 32 to No. 4 in scoring defense in Robert Saleh’s second year as head coach, the Jets were still rotten on offense, and that is largely due to the quarterback position.
While Zach Wilson technically was 5-4 as a starter in 2022, he did not play well in most games. He holds the ball too long – average time to throw of 3.13 seconds was third-longest time in 2022 (source: Next Gen Stats) – and runs from clean pockets. He is not very accurate. His rates for sacks and interceptions remain too high despite no longer being a rookie in 2022.
Then there is just the simple fact that the offense stinks under Wilson and the coaching staff clearly does not trust him:
- 2021-22 Jets with Zach Wilson starting: 22 games, 28.4 pass attempts, 182.8 passing yards per game.
- 2021-22 Jets without Zach Wilson starting: 12 games, 41.8 pass attempts, 273.7 passing yards per game.
The Jets let Joe Flacco throw 155 passes in the first three games last season, which is an outrageous number. But they would never let Wilson attempt that many nor would he be able to get there without taking too many sacks and throwing interceptions first.
Mike White was the third quarterback to start games for the Jets last year. While he is an interesting prospect with some big games on his resume, he has major durability issues and did not play that well outside of a game where he shredded Chicago’s bottom-ranked defense last year. He is likely not the long-term future starter for any NFL team but he can be a valuable backup. He will be in Miami this season instead of the Jets.
The Jets lost their final six games last season, never scoring more than 17 points in the last five games. In fact, the Jets scored a total of 15 points over the last three games combined.
This offense wasted a very good defensive season as the Jets were just 6-5 when allowing fewer than 21 points. Since 2016, Rodgers is 42-5 when his team allows fewer than 21 points.
The Jets had to make something big happen at quarterback if they want to have any shot at doing something in this AFC.
Offseason Review
Start spreading the news: Aaron Rodgers has taken his talents to New York (or New Jersey, to be specific). When one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time changes teams, that is always going to be the center of attention. When it’s Rodgers in his mouthy era of saying what he wants to publicly, he is going to get more attention than ever this year, especially if things do not start great.
But we will get into the Rodgers-related additions in the next section. As for the defense, the Jets did not have a lot of work to do to beef up their best unit. They used a first-round pick on edge rusher Will McDonald. He does not have to start this year and can back up Carl Lawson as part of the pass-rushing rotation. The Jets still have Quinnen Williams, who is coming off his biggest season with 12 sacks and 31 pressures in a first-team All-Pro season.
Rodgers is not the only Green Bay veteran coming to the Jets in hopes of a rebound season. Safety Adrian Amos joins the secondary after a bad year, but he will have a lot of support with Sauce Gardner, Jordan Whitehead, Michael Carter, and D.J. Reed.
This Year’s Area of Interest: The Schedule’s Impact on Aaron Rodgers
It is not hyperbolic to say that nailing how the Jets perform this season is crucial to having good overall predictions for the 2023 NFL season. The schedule makers have loaded things up on the Jets in a way that we will have sense of how good this team is early, and maybe a better idea of how great they can be come playoff time after the schedule eases up.
Before the Week 7 bye, the Jets are going to play four of the top six favorites to win the Super Bowl this year (Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, and Cowboys). Great litmus tests for this team. But come December, the Jets will face the Falcons, Texans, Dolphins, Commanders, Browns, and Patriots – almost certain to be a much easier slate against teams mostly not thought to be big contenders this year.
This unique schedule is why you should not bail on the Jets early if there is a bad start, but it could also be fair to question them come playoff time if they fail to pull off any signature wins against these teams and rely on the bottom-barrel opponents to beef up their record.
But what if the Jets come out swinging and get wins over the Super Bowl teams (Chiefs and Eagles)? That would really get the bandwagon moving towards the thoughts of this becoming a special season.
There is also no denying there is a lot of pressure on Rodgers to make this team a major contender this season. Joe Montana (Chiefs), Brett Favre (Vikings), Peyton Manning (Broncos), and Tom Brady (Buccaneers) all were in a Conference Championship Game or Super Bowl in their first or second season with their new team.
With the kind of early schedule the Jets have, you have to be careful to make a snap judgment of Rodgers after six games. However, if you look at how those four legends fared after six games, they all were statistically sound, and the record was .500 or greater unless the schedule was a factor:
- In 1993, Montana’s Chiefs started 5-1 but they were 4-0 in Montana’s starts as he had some injuries that year. He threw 6 TDs to 1 pick in those first starts with 8.3 yards per attempt and 101.7 passer rating.
- In 2009, Favre’s Vikings started 6-0 and he had 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions at the time for a 109.5 passer rating. The Vikings scored at least 27 points in each game.
- In 2012, Manning’s Broncos started 1-2 and 2-3, but they won out to finish 13-3 for the No. 1 seed. The teams they lost to (Atlanta, Houston, and New England) were all teams that won 12 or 13 games, and Atlanta was the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Houston was No. 1 in the AFC for most of the year until Denver surpassed. Manning had 14 touchdowns, 4 interceptions (3 in Atlanta game), 7.96 YPA, and 105.0 passer rating thru six games.
- In 2020, Brady’s Buccaneers had a rough debut in a loss in New Orleans, but they would start 4-2, highlighted by a 38-10 thrashing of Rodgers’ Packers. But the Buccaneers were 7-5 at one point before turning things around to win the Super Bowl. Brady had the weakest statistics of the four quarterbacks early on (6.91 YPA, 97.8 PR), but it was still an improvement over his final season in New England.
Remember, Rodgers is coming off the worst season of his career.
- Rodgers threw his most interceptions (12) since his 2008 season, his first as a starter.
- Rodgers’ 6.8 yards per attempt was his second season under 7.0 in his career (6.7 in 2015).
- Rodgers’ 91.1 passer rating and 39.3 QBR (ranked 26th between failed veterans on the move Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson) were also career lows.
- Rodgers has not passed for 260 yards in 18-of-19 games going back to 2021 (previous long streak: 7 games in 2019).
- Rodgers has gone 22 games without a 300-yard passing game (previous longest streaks: 14 games in 2015-16 and 7 games on multiple occasions).
- Rodgers has not thrown multiple touchdown passes in his last 5 games (previous long streak: 3 games)
But the common link between Rodgers’ worst seasons (2015 and 2022) is the lack of a No. 1 receiver. In 2015, Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in preseason and Davante Adams, in his second season, was not the receiver he is today. Last year, the Packers traded an elite version of Adams to the Raiders where he led the NFL with 14 touchdown catches. The Packers rolled out a bunch of rookies, washed veterans, and the always injured Sammy Watkins seemed to poison the wide receiver room as there were many injuries throughout this receiving corps.
Rodgers himself was not 100% last year, suffering a broken thumb in the loss in London to the Giants in Week 5. The Packers were 3-1 to start the season before that game. Health is always the No. 1 factor to look at when a great player has a down season.
Rodgers’ age (40 in December) does bring concerns as Father Time is undefeated. But at 39 last year, he did not look as physically limited as Peyton Manning (four neck surgeries leading to quad and foot injuries) and Ben Roethlisberger (played last two years after elbow surgery) did in their final years before retiring just shy of 40 years old.
But the 40-year-old quarterback is a new phenomenon. There are only 12 seasons by 5 different quarterbacks in NFL history where they threw at least 300 passes in their 40s, and two-thirds of them are from Drew Brees (2) and Tom Brady (6) since 2017. The only other quarterbacks to do it were Brett Favre (2009-10), Vinny Testaverde (2004), and Warren Moon (1997).
Health permitting, Rodgers will have some advantages those other legendary quarterbacks did not have when switching teams late in their careers. For one, the Jets hired Nathaniel Hackett to be their offensive coordinator in 2023. Hackett was Rodgers’ OC in Green Bay when he won his last two MVP awards in 2020-21. This familiarity should be huge when it comes to learning the offense and being on the same page with the coaches.
As Denver coach Sean Payton said last week, Hackett did a terrible job coaching the Broncos last season. However, some coaches are just not cut out to have the main job, but as a coordinator, they are very good. Hackett looks like he could be that kind of coach.
The Jets also brought in Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, two of Rodgers’ most familiar receivers from the Packers. Even if Cobb rarely plays, Lazard should start alongside Wilson (a legit WR1), Corey Davis, and the team added Mecole Hardman from the Chiefs. Rodgers has always been a quarterback who favors throwing to his wideouts, and he should develop a great connection with Wilson if he was able to do so well as a rookie with Flacco, Wilson, and White.
The offensive line may not be dominant, but it should be competent enough to win, especially if left tackle Mekhi Becton can get back on the field. It would also be nice if the Jets got Breece Hall back at running back after tearing his ACL as a rookie. He may very well be less explosive, but last year he averaged 5.8 yards per carry in an offense where Michael Carter (3.5) and Zonovan Knight (3.5) did much worse.
The Jets cannot give Rodgers the best offensive teammates of his career, but they can give him a better group than he had last year in Green Bay. More exciting, he might finally have his best defense since his 2010 unit that helped him to his only Super Bowl.
Defense is less consistent year-to-year than offense, but the Jets have the talent and right coaching that there should not be a big drop off after finishing 2022 ranked No. 2 in points per drive allowed. Rodgers has not played with a defense that ranked higher than No. 10 in points per drive allowed since 2010 (average rank: 17.9).
If the Jets can start 3-3 against a brutal schedule, then they should feel very good going into the bye week. But given the who and when of this schedule, it seems almost certain that the Jets should be playing their best football late in the year.
They just have to survive this early storm and attention sure to come from playing so many high-profile games against other Super Bowl contenders. But if things go according to plan, then the Jets should also be a contender with Rodgers this year.
Best Bets for the 2023 Jets
After picking the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East and Super Bowl 58 last week, it would be odd to suggest we have the Jets doing the same this year. It could certainly happen if this team lives up to its potential, but it is usually so hard to go from an annual losing team all the way to a Super Bowl win.
Only 13 of the 57 Super Bowl winners (22.8%) missed the playoffs in the previous season. Nine of the last 10 Super Bowl teams in the AFC have been No. 1 or No. 2 seeds too, so it will likely take the Jets leapfrogging some very excellent, experienced teams like the Bills, Chiefs, and Bengals to have the kind of season that ends with a championship.
But if the Jets can finish strong when that schedule eases up, they should find themselves in the tournament and possibly with the most hype of any AFC team going into January. This is why our best bet for the Jets is to make the playoffs. The over 9.5 wins should also be a good bet when the schedule starting in December alone could get them halfway to that over.
Finally, it is hard to pass up on the value (+1600) of Rodgers winning his fifth MVP, which would tie Peyton Manning for the most in NFL history. If the Jets turn into an elite offense and team after 12 years of misery, then it will be hard to deny the narrative of Rodgers coming to completely change the culture and expectations of this franchise at 40 years old.
At the very least, this should be the most interesting Jets season in decades.
NFL Pick: New York Jets to make playoffs (-134 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: New York Jets over 9.5 wins (-122 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Aaron Rodgers to win MVP (+1600 at FanDuel)
