By Scott Kacsmar
The New Orleans Saints were stuck in the 7-10 abyss of the NFC South last year, the team’s first season without head coach Sean Payton. But statistically, the Saints had an argument for being the best team in the division last year. They scored more points than Tampa Bay despite having Andy Dalton at quarterback, but an inexplicable blown lead against the Buccaneers hurt their playoff chances.
The Saints have reloaded and are moving forward with Derek Carr at quarterback after nine seasons with the Raiders failed to produce a playoff win. Carr reunites with Dennis Allen, the coach who was fired four games into his rookie season in 2014 with the Raiders.
Can this duo take advantage of an easy schedule in a weak division to bring the playoffs back to New Orleans? We look back at 2022’s disappointment, the key offseason changes, just how helpful the schedule should be, and the best Saints bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: Missing Sean Payton
It is a lot to lose your quarterback and head coach in back-to-back seasons, especially when they are Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The 2022 Saints had the odds stacked against them, but they still left some wins on the table that you just know Brees and Payton would not have done.
For instance, the 2022 Saints were only 3-3 (.500) in games where they allowed no more than 17 points. During Payton’s tenure in 2006-21, the Saints were 85-6 (.934) when allowing no more than 17 points.
All of those low-scoring losses came late in the season after a 4-7 start saw the team hanging around in the NFC South race because of how bad the division was. Andy Dalton replaced an injured and ineffective Jameis Winston at quarterback, and he was borderline adequate in that role. He helped rookie wideout Chris Olave to over 1,000 yards in an impressive first season.
But running back Alvin Kamara scored a career-low 4 touchdowns and continued his 2021 trend of only averaging 5.0 yards per touch – his two lowest seasons being his last two seasons. Wide receiver Michael Thomas continued to be limited by injuries, only playing in 3 games before his season ended once again.
The offense had its share of struggles, which was a shame to waste a defensive effort that saw the Saints allow 14.5 points per game over the last 10 games of the season. Only the 49ers were ranked higher in that time and by a single fewer point allowed. For the whole season, the Saints allowed the 9th-fewest points and 5th-fewest yards despite only mustering 14 takeaways – only the Raiders had fewer (13).
The low-scoring losses late in the season really hurt because this division was there for the taking. But the Saints lost 13-0 to the 49ers, wasting a great defensive effort to hold down what was a hot team.
But the bummer of the season was the Week 13 loss in Tampa Bay on a Monday night. The Saints had a 16-3 lead and the ball back with just over 6:00 left in the fourth quarter before they did everything they could to hand the game to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
Running back Mark Ingram inexplicably ran out of bounds instead of getting a first down to bring up a 3rd-and-1, which the Saints threw an incomplete pass on instead of trying to run for the first down. The Buccaneers scored a touchdown thanks to a 44-yard defensive pass interference penalty on the Saints, then New Orleans botched a 3rd-and-17 conversion when Taysom Hill could not hang onto a pass that would have converted.
Tampa then scored the game-winning touchdown with 3 seconds left in a 17-16 comeback win that dropped the Saints to 4-9 before a late bye week. They won their next three games, but it was too little too late for the division title. They lost an ugly 10-7 game to Carolina in Week 18, a game where Sam Darnold completed 5 passes for 43 yards and 2 interceptions and still got the road win.
That finale made the Saints only the third home team since 1950 to lose a game despite allowing no more than 10 points, no more than 5 pass completions, and getting multiple interceptions on defense.
Offseason Review
The Saints made a splashy move to sign Derek Carr to a 4-year deal worth $150 million. Is he an upgrade over Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston? Yes, but like both, he has never won a playoff game, he is practically useless against elite teams, and you never know when he is going to have a crushing turnover or do something stupid.
During Carr’s tenure with the Raiders (2014-22), the Raiders were the only team in the NFL to get outscored by a double-digit average in games against teams that made the playoffs that season. The Raiders had the worst scoring differential (minus-10.4 points per game) in such games since 2014. The Raiders’ record of 12-47 (.203) in games against playoff teams was the fifth worst in the NFL during that time.
The Saints are hoping that by giving Carr the best situation of his career, they will get the best play out of him.
It is hard to deny this is Carr’s best situation. It starts with a division he is favored to win and should be the best quarterback with Baker Mayfield, Desmond Ridder, and rookie Bryce Young being the other NFC South quarterbacks. Carr was always stuck in the AFC West, which was controlled by the Broncos (Peyton Manning) and then the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes).
Think of it like when Philip Rivers joined the Colts in 2020 and instantly made the playoffs with an 11-5 record. That will be a similar blueprint for Carr in his 10th season.
Having left the Raiders where he had rushing champion Josh Jacobs and touchdown catch leader Davante Adams in 2022, it might be hard to say this is the best offense Carr has ever played in. However, Jamaal Williams from the Lions will make for a solid running back duo with Alvin Kamara when the latter returns from his 3-game suspension for an off-field fighting incident a couple of years ago.
Olave looked like a legitimate No. 1 last year as a rookie and is an emerging star at the position. At 30 years old, maybe Michael Thomas can finally put his injury history behind him and stay healthy to have his most productive season since he had a record 149 catches in 2019. Juwan Johnson is an improving tight end entering his fourth season after converting from wide receiver.
The offensive line is not elite, but it has four first-round picks with left tackle Trevor Penning needing to prove his worth after only starting the season finale in his rookie season last year.
But defense is probably what will interest Carr the most because he never really had one in nine years with the Raiders. Last season, the Saints ranked No. 10 in both yards per drive and points per drive allowed. Carr would gladly take that. He’s never had a defense rank higher than 15th in points per drive allowed, and he hasn’t had a defense higher than 26th since 2017.
In fact, Carr has had the worst defensive support among his peers if you look at the average ranking in points per drive allowed for the teams in their careers as starters:
- Lamar Jackson – 6.2
- Josh Allen – 6.8
- Russell Wilson – 7.5
- Tom Brady – 8.6
- Ben Roethlisberger – 9.4
- Dak Prescott – 12.4
- Philip Rivers – 15.1
- Jared Goff – 16.4
- Ryan Tannehill – 16.5
- Peyton Manning – 17.6
- Aaron Rodgers – 17.9
- Kirk Cousins – 18.1
- Eli Manning – 18.2
- Patrick Mahomes – 18.6
- Drew Brees – 19.8
- Matthew Stafford – 20.6
- Matt Ryan – 21.7
- Derek Carr – 26.8
The Saints retain some key veterans at all levels of the defense, including defensive end Cameron Jordan, linebacker Demario Davis, safety Tyrann Mathieu, and corner Marshon Lattimore. The Saints also reloaded the defensive line with their top two draft picks Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey.
Carr would not be happy to hear that the Saints had 14 takeaways last year, or just one more than his Raiders, who were dead last with 13 takeaways. But there could be positive regression here for the Saints, who will face several inexperienced quarterbacks this year.
That is the hidden weapon for the Saints this year. A ridiculously light schedule.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Will Easy Schedule Lead to Home Playoff Game?
In many NFL seasons, you will find a team (or maybe a few) who has such an easy schedule that it inflates their record and helps them secure a playoff berth they otherwise would not have had. But they just so happened to draw the right combination of divisions on their schedule.
For example, those 2020 Colts with Philip Rivers had the easiest schedule based on pre-season Super Bowl odds with the average opponent being +11781 to win the Super Bowl that year. The Browns and Titans also had average odds over +10000 that year, and all three teams made the playoffs. The Browns have not returned since. In 2021, the Titans had the easiest schedule based on Super Bowl odds before the season at +7832 and they ended up with the No. 1 seed that year.
It should be noted that numbers on paper in August are not going to be deadly accurate. Things change too quickly in this league. A “tough game” against the Bengals is not that tough if Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase end up being out with injuries that week.
Last year, the Commanders (+8227) and Colts (+8169) had the easiest schedules by this metric of preseason Super Bowl odds. Neither had a winning record in the end. However, the Eagles (+8069) had the third-easiest schedule, and they did ride that to an 8-0 start and No. 1 seed.
The schedule should never be ignored, and right now, it is one of the strongest arguments for the Saints succeeding this season even if the team may technically not be poised for greatness.
Odds are subject to change even before Week 1, but there are roughly 8 teams with odds better than +2000 to win the Super Bowl. The Saints are scheduled to play none of them in the 2023 regular season. Not a single game against the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, 49ers, Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, or Ravens.
On the flip side, the Saints play 13 games against the bottom 13 teams in Super Bowl odds (+5000 or longer). This is why the schedule, which features the AFC South and NFC North, is a blessing to this team.
Technically, the Saints do not have the easiest schedule based on Super Bowl odds this year. The Saints’ average opponent is +7176 to win the Super Bowl based on the odds at Pro Football Reference. The Falcons are the only team ranked higher at +7271. The teams play most of the same opponents, but this edge for Atlanta is made up by getting to play Arizona (+20000) while the Saints will play the Rams (+8000).
But with the oddsmakers favoring the Saints over the Falcons, and Carr being more of a proven commodity than the wild card that is Desmond Ridder, it makes perfect sense why the Saints are favored to win the NFC South this year.
The Lions and Jaguars are the only teams on the Saints’ schedule that have better Super Bowl odds than +5000 at most sportsbooks. Unless those teams deliver on their hype, it is possible the Saints go through the 2023 regular season without playing a single 11-win team, and maybe not even a 10-win team.
It may still lead to a wild card loss at home in the playoffs to the NFC East runner-up, but this schedule should do wonders for the Saints’ hope of returning to the tournament.
Best Bets for the 2023 Saints
Buying into the 2023 Saints is less about trusting Carr and Allen to get things right nine years after they first linked up in Oakland and more about trusting that they are good enough to take advantage of the situation.
This was a division won by an 8-9 Tampa team that played terrible football for much of the year, and Tom Brady is gone now. The division is there for the taking, and the Saints have the best combo of experienced quarterback, skill players, and defense out of the four teams.
Throw in a ridiculously easy schedule that features the Jaguars, Lions, and Vikings as the idea of elite teams, and a division schedule where Carr just has to outscore Desmond Ridder, Baker Mayfield, and a rookie, and over 9.5 wins is absolutely doable.
The division odds offer the better value, but over 9.5 wins work too. This team may have a scoring differential that won’t be worth gloating about despite the easy schedule but look for Carr to lead at least four game-winning drives and get a lot of credit for turning the Saints around even if his individual play is the same brand from the Raiders in different packaging.
NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints to win NFC South (+130 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints over 9.5 wins (+114 at FanDuel)
