By Scott Kacsmar
Going into a fourth season without Tom Brady, the New England Patriots are arguably their farthest away from competing since Bill Belichick joined the team in 2000. That was the last time the Patriots finished last in the AFC East, and it can happen again this year in one of the most improved divisions in the league.
New England’s over/under of 7.5 wins found at top-rated sportsbooks is the team’s lowest since the 2001 season (6.5). The Patriots are a perfectly mediocre 25-25 since 2020.
Entering a crucial season for quarterback Mac Jones, the Patriots are hoping a familiar face at offensive coordinator will get their young signal caller back on track after a miserable sophomore slump season that saw him nearly lose his job to Bailey Zappe.
We look back at that rough 2022 season, the key offseason changes, the quarterback imbalance flipping the other way in the AFC East, and what the best Patriots bets are for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: The Ill-Advised Throwback
For two decades, the Patriots had a significant edge at winning close games. This was not only because of having Tom Brady at quarterback, but the defense was often lights out with the game on the line, the special teams were money, and whether it was luck or dark magic, Belichick’s team just made fewer costly mistakes than his opponents.
But in 2022, the Patriots made some epic blunders that cost them a return to the playoffs as their 8-9 record was right there with the 9-8 Dolphins, who became the No. 7 seed. The loss of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator proved to be significant, or perhaps the replacement hires were the problem as neither Joe Judge nor Matt Patricia, two of Belichick’s old cronies, were not up to the task.
Despite a difficult season that saw Mac Jones ponder if he was going to lose his job to Bailey Zappe after some poor play and a high-ankle sprain, the Patriots were still 7-6 and in the playoff mix in December.
They still knew how to sweep the Jets, pushing that win streak to 14 games against a personal rival for Belichick. The Patriots destroyed teams like the Lions (29-0) and Browns (38-15), and they had no problem with a Colts team that was trying out Sam Ehlinger at quarterback in a 26-3 outcome. They also picked up a 7th win in a game against Arizona where Kyler Murray tore his ACL in the first quarter.
In all, 7-of-8 New England wins last year were against quarterbacks who were benched or were backups. Detroit’s Jared Goff was the best quarterback this team beat last year, and the Patriots were 0-8 when allowing more than 21 points.
But at 7-6, the Patriots had a shot to do something. They only played in 8 close games in the fourth quarter last year, a total that only the Eagles (7) and 49ers (6) had less than. But the Patriots ended up finishing 0-5 at game-winning drive opportunities and they blew 3 fourth-quarter leads.
The worst of the worst was in Week 15 in Las Vegas. After taking a late 24-17 lead, the Patriots caved on defense against Derek Carr and gave up a game-tying touchdown with 32 seconds left. While the Patriots drove to midfield, a run call made it appear the team was content with going to overtime. But Rhamondre Stevenson decided to lateral to Jakobi Meyers, who made one of the worst lateral decisions ever, throwing the ball to Chandler Jones, who returned it for a 48-yard touchdown to win the game for the Raiders.
After that disaster, the Patriots were down 22-0 at halftime to the Bengals the following week. But after getting started on the comeback trail with a pick-6 by the defense, the Patriots made this a close game. Down 22-18, the Patriots had a first-and-goal at the 5-yard line with just over a minute left. But Stevenson fumbled the ball on first down and the Bengals recovered with 59 seconds left. Another disastrous fumble. The Patriots lost 22-18 to fall to 7-8. They managed to beat the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa to get back to .500, but they never stood much of a chance in Buffalo in Week 18 in the first game since Damar Hamlin’s health scare.
At 8-9, the Patriots were not last in the AFC East, but after this offseason, they sure feel like a team headed that way after a disappointing 2022.
Offseason Review
One of the first things Belichick needed to do was find a real offensive coordinator again. Fortunately, old friend Bill O’Brien was available after spending the last two years as Alabama’s offensive coordinator. Before he was the head coach of Penn State and the Houston Texans, O’Brien spent five seasons with Belichick during the team’s most dominant offensive era in 2007-11. He was the offensive coordinator for the 2011 season.
Unfortunately, the Patriots do not have elite talent on offense like they did a dozen years ago. O’Brien will have to make do with Jones as his quarterback, and the two did not cross paths at Alabama, though that connection may help make it easier for them to collaborate on offense this year as O’Brien will want to bring something he is recently familiar with to the Patriots.
But while he had Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez at tight end in 2011, he will have Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki (new addition from Miami) this season. This is actually not a bad duo to use, but the Patriots have struggled to find any usage for the position since Gronk first retired. The Patriots threw millions of dollars at Jonnu Smith only to trade him this offseason to Atlanta after 539 yards and 1 touchdown in two seasons with New England. Maybe O’Brien can unlock the tight end potential here, but Henry and Gesicki are not in the top 10 players at their position.
The Patriots also still lack a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a solid veteran who can help, but DeVante Parker struggles to get any separation, and Kendrick Bourne and Tyquan Thornton are more WR3 types.
The offensive line added right tackle Riley Reiff on a 1-year deal worth $5 million. This will be his fourth team in four seasons, yet he always seems to find a way to start double-digit games. He will hopefully be a reliable starter after the Patriots had to try out several players at that spot last year. Overall, the offensive line should not be a big strength or weakness for the team.
On defense, the Patriots made some low-key veteran re-signings for the secondary in safety Jabrill Peppers and corner Jonathan Jones. They will welcome first-round rookie corner Christian Gonzalez, who slid a bit in the draft as many thought he could have been a top-10 pick. But the Patriots should start him in Week 1.
This Year’s Area of Interest: The AFC East’s Worst Quarterback Is in New England?
For two decades, the Patriots had an unprecedented advantage at quarterback in their division. The Patriots had Tom Brady while the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins could only do their best to muster up Chad Pennington, who was injured every other year, and about 11 games of Brett Favre in 2008 before his shoulder went to hell.
But a funny thing happened after Brady left the division in 2020. Josh Allen suddenly had a third-year breakout for the Bills and has turned into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Naturally, the Bills have won the AFC East every year since and are favored again in 2023.
The Dolphins drafted Tua Tagovailoa in 2020, and after some early struggles, he had a breakout year in 2022 under new coach Mike McDaniel and after acquiring Tyreek Hill in a trade. Tagovailoa led the NFL in many passing efficiency stats last year despite missing time with multiple concussions.
Meanwhile, the Patriots trotted out the ghost of Cam Newton in 2020’s pandemic season. They drafted Mac Jones in the first round in 2021, and thanks to strong team support and the coaching of Belichick, they made the playoffs with Jones showing decent accuracy and decision-making as a game manager type. But things went south last year for Jones.
However, the Patriots never had the worst quarterback situation in the AFC East because the Jets were still going to be the Jets, trotting out the corpses of Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold, or drafting a bum like Zach Wilson.
But 2023 should be a different story as four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers is the new quarterback in New York. He is coming off his worst season and will be 40 years old, but after playing with a broken thumb and not having a true No. 1 receiver, Rodgers should be back to high-quality play this season.
Rodgers should only add to the far-improved quarterback play from the rest of the AFC East. Despite comparing three seasons to 18, the top passing seasons for the AFC East’s former Three Stooges are dominated by this 2020-22 run:
In three post-Brady seasons, the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets have already produced more great quarterback seasons than they did in all of 2002-2019 combined – with no help from the Jets, mind you. When Ryan Fitzpatrick was one of the best quarterbacks in your division, you know something was very wrong.
Between Rodgers, Allen, Tua, and Jones, it is no contest that the Patriots have the worst quarterback in the AFC East, something that was unthinkable to say for two decades. This is why expectations are not high for the team, because Jones needs too much to go well to succeed. He is not a needle mover on his own. In his career, Jones is 12-0 when the Patriots allow fewer than 17 points, but he is only 4-16 (.200) when the Patriots allow 17-plus points. Only four NFL teams since 2021 have a worse record in that 17-plus point split.
While this quarterback disparity may not last long at all for New England, it is a big reversal of fortune in this once one-sided division.
Best Bets for the 2023 Patriots
The AFC East finally getting the best of the Patriots at the quarterback position is also a good reason to bet on this team to not having a good season in 2023.
Since Josh Allen’s breakout year in 2020, he is 6-1 against the Patriots with the only loss coming in that extreme wind game in 2021. Tua Tagovailoa does not put up the flashiest stats against Belichick’s defense, but he avoids the big mistakes and is 4-0 against the Patriots. Make that 10-1 against New England since 2020 for Allen and Tua.
Rodgers is 2-1 as a starter against Belichick in his career, including last year’s overtime comeback win. He should help the Jets end their 14-game losing streak against New England since the 2015 season, and maybe as soon as Week 3 at home.
That lack of a sweep over the Jets could be exactly what keeps the Patriots under 7.5 wins this year as they also must face NFC playoff hopefuls Eagles, Cowboys, and Saints, and they have the Chiefs and Broncos (in Denver) scheduled as prime-time games near Christmas time. That is before going to Buffalo in Week 17.
In predicting no better than 7-10 for the Patriots, we already have predicted the Jets and Bills to win double-digit games and for Miami to at least finish with 8 wins provided Tua avoids concussions.
That would put the Patriots in last place in the AFC East, a first since division realignment in 2002. But it was bound to happen eventually, and when you fail to stockpile elite talent while searching for that true long-term successor to Brady, last place is an earned result.
NFL Pick: New England Patriots to finish 4th in AFC East (-165 at BetMGM)
NFL Pick: New England Patriots under 7.5 wins (-142 at FanDuel)
