NCAA Final Four Preview and Betting Picks – #5 University of Miami vs #4 University of Connecticut
Game Info
Date: Saturday, April 1st
Time: 7:49 pm Local Time (CST)
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
TV: CBS
Betting Info
Spread – UCONN -5.5
Over/Under – 149.5
The second matchup of the night will feature the ACC and Midwest Regional Champion Miami Hurricanes against the Big East Runner-Up and West Regional Champion UCONN Huskies for a chance to play in the National Championship. Separated by just half a point in Points Per Game throughout March Madness, the two highest-scoring teams have looked unbeatable all tournament and will clash in a fast-paced, high-scoring, track meet that should be an incredible one to watch.
Miami Hurricanes Preview
Miami’s National Championship hopes were almost over as soon as they began. In the first round of the tournament, The Hurricanes trailed #12 seed Drake 56-53 with two and a half minutes remaining before they scored the game’s final 10 points to seal the victory and advance. Since then, they dominated #4 seed Indiana, thumped the #1 seed Houston, and rallied from a 13-point second-half deficit on Sunday to outlast #2 Texas, finishing the game on 35-16 run. Even if the Hurricanes trail, they are never out of the game, as they have shown multiple times that they can get back into the game in a flash.
The Hurricanes have looked like the best offensive in college basketball and have been on a tear as of late, scoring 80+ points in three straight games. With a four-guard lineup with an athletic big man, the Hurricanes have a plethora of scorers that can get hot at any moment. ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong leads the team with 16.2 points per game while shooting 38% from the 3-point line, but in their last victory over Texas, it was Jordan Miller who led the way for the Canes, scoring 27 points without missing a single shot attempt. Miller went 13-13 from the field and 7-7 from the free-throw line and became the first player since Duke legend Christian Laettner in 1992 to go 20-20 in combined field goals and free throws in an NCAA tournament game. In addition to the outstanding play of Miller and Wong, the Canes can rely on the talented duo of Nijel Pack, and Wooga Poplar to get buckets at all three levels of the defense. Miami is also an excellent free-throw shooting team, something that is critical at this stage in the season. The Hurricanes have shot 78% from the free throw line this season, which ranks 11th in the country. In the team’s Elite Eight victory over Texas, they made 28-of-32 free throws (87.5%), including 25-of-27 (92.6%) in the second half. Unlike many teams, the Canes can have four scorers that don’t rely on the 3-point shot, as even with only two 3-pointers in their last game, they scored 88 points with all 5 starters scoring double digits and shooting 70% from the field as a team.
Finishing out their starting lineup around their four scoring guards is their athletic 6’8 big man Norchad Omier who is dominant on the boards and in the paint, averaging 13.3 rebounds along with 10.5 points a game throughout the tournament. With such a dynamic offensive attack with multiple capable scorers, it seems impossible to slow this team down. Their only downside is their lack of depth and thin rotation that can cause them problems if foul trouble comes into play. Without a reliable backup big man, it will be critical that Omier defends without failing to keep UCONN’s versatile big men combo from dominating inside.
Their 73-year-old coach Jim Larranñage will be the only one on the sidelines in Houston who has previously been to a Final Four as a head coach. In 2006, he took 11th-seeded George Mason on a bracket-busting run that included knocking off top-seeded UConn in overtime in the Elite Eight. Miami will have a chore on its hands on Saturday night when he sees Connecticut once again.
Connecticut Huskies Preview
Although Connecticut is the only program in the Final Four that has been here before and is running for its fifth championship since 1999, the Huskies began their run this season with only one tournament victory since their last title in 2014. Nevertheless, the Huskies have breezed through the tournament, dispatching #13 Iona and #5 St. Mary’s with second-half blitzes and then blowing out #8 Arkansas and #3 Gonzaga. Their average margin of victory in their last 4 games is 22.5 points and they have looked like the most complete team all tournament.
The Huskies are led by future NBA star Jordan Hawkins who scored 20 points in their last victory over Gonzaga, helping UCONN reach their first Final Four in nine years. Hawkins has averaged 17.3 points per game and shoots an outstanding 52% from the 3-point range throughout the tournament. In addition to Hawkins, UCONN has a strong 1-2 punch of big men in Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan who wreak havoc in the opposing team’s paint. The Big East First-Team All-Star Sanogo is a 6-foot-9, 245-pound junior from Mali, who led the Big East conference in scoring with 17 points per game and ranked fifth in the conference in rebounding with 7.5 a game. Gonzaga tried double-teaming him in their Elite Eight matchup, but Sanogo showed off his playmaking ability and found plenty of open shooters to finish the game with 6 assists. Clingan, a 7-2 Freshman, and legitimate NBA prospect has burst onto the scene and is an incredible luxury to have coming off the bench for the Huskies. Surrounded by a versatile group of guards who can handle, shoot, and pass, Sanogo and Clingan have been dominant down low for the Huskies all tournament and will be a problem for the undersized Miami defense to deal with.
In addition to the Huskies’ effective offense, they do an excellent job at defending the 3-pointer. UConn allows opponents to shoot just 29.7% from beyond the arc, which ranks 12th in the country. Defending the three will be critical in stopping a Miami team that led the ACC in 3-point percentage at 37% and has been shooting lights out from all over the floor all tournament long.
Matchup Preview
This incredible matchup will feature the two highest-scoring teams of the tournament in a track meet to outscore their opponent for a chance to play for a National Championship. Separated by just half a point in Points Per Game, (Miami averages 81.25 PPG, while UConn averages 81.75 PPG throughout the tournament) these two teams have put on some of the best offensive performances in tournament history and will look to outduel their opponents once again.
Uconn has looked like the most complete team in all of the college basketball throughout the tournament, but Miami’s dynamic offensive attack with so many capable scorers seems impossible to slow down. The Huskies may be a more profound and complete team, but Miami’s ability to make shots and overcome deficits will give the Huskies their toughest test this season. UConn has blazed through their opponents, while Miami has battled through close games and tight finishes, which could be an advantage if this game is close.
The major concern for the Hurricanes will be slowing down the Huskies’ big men without fouling. In their last game, big man Norchad Omier got into foul trouble early and went to the bench, forcing Miami to go small. The Longhorns capitalized when he checked back in, as there were multiple instances where Omier let Texas score to avoid picking up another foul, knowing his importance to the team and lack of depth behind him. With Uconn’s dynamic duo of big men, the game will depend on Omier’s ability to defend without fouling while controlling the defensive boards for his team.
In Uconn’s last matchup against Gonzaga, they were able to force the Zags’ star big man Drew Timme to the bench with foul trouble. When Timme picked up his 4th foul with 17:38 left in the game and went back to the bench, Gonzaga was only down by 10 and looked like were clawing their way back, but by the time Timme checked back into the game just 3 and a half minutes later, the Huskies had stretched the lead to 21 and the dominance of the Huskies continued for the remainder of the game. If foul trouble comes into play and Omier goes to the bench, the Hurricanes will struggle to defend the paint, which subsequently could cause them to over collapse inside and leave UCONN’s shooters open.
UConn does have capable defenders, but it will be a challenge to defend the Miami guards all game. If they want any chance, they will have to shoot the ball well and keep up with Miami’s scoring. Knowing the Canes’ lack of depth in the front court, look for Adama Sanogo to be fed the ball inside early to try to force the issue inside against Omier and get him into foul trouble or score easy buckets inside.
Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Spread – Miami +5.5
For a team that has erased deficits, scored in bunches, and continually defied the odds, 5 points to spare for the Hurricanes is just too high of a spread to bet against, especially considering these types of games tend to come down to the wire. Shot-making ability is at a premium at this stage in the tournament and Miami simply has more clutch shot-makers than anyone in college basketball. When high-pressure situations arise in close games deep into the second half, the team that can shoot well in the clutch has the advantage. This is a great matchup and can go either way, but the Hurricanes shot making is too scary to bet against with 5 points to spare.
Total – Over 149.5
With Miami averaging 82 PPG and UConn averaging 83 PPG, the over seems like the obvious play. Both teams have fast-paced and efficient offenses that can attack the defense from all 3 levels. Even though 149.5 is a high total for a 40-minute college basketball game, both teams will rely on what got them here to win this game – their scoring. For the Canes, it will be their diverse and skilled scoring guards being aggressive and shooting with confidence. For the Huskies, it will be establishing Sanogo inside and freeing space for Hawkins to attack. Both teams are outstanding at what they do offensively and are nearly impossible to guard, making the likely outcome.
Prop – Miami’s Norchad Omier over 9.5 rebounds
If Omier can stay on the court and avoid foul trouble, snagging more than 9 rebounds seems like a lock. Omier averages 13.3 rebounds a game and has been a beast for the Hurricanes on the inside. With so many offensive-minded small guards surrounding their big man, it will be critical that Omier focuses on rebounding to limit easy second-chance points for the Huskies. Given the fast-paced tempo both of these teams like to play with, there should be plenty of opportunities for Omier to grab rebounds on both ends of the floor.
[ays_poll id=9]
